1 / 9

ANNE M. THOMPSON Professor, Department of Meteorology

AQAST TIGER TEAM PROGRESS PSU (A M Thompson, G Garner, A Reed, H Halliday, D Kollonige, R Stauffer, W Ryan) NCAR (S E Haupt, J A Lee) Univ Maryland (R R Dickerson) Presentation to AQAST Team, Madison, 12 June 12

acacia
Download Presentation

ANNE M. THOMPSON Professor, Department of Meteorology

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AQAST TIGER TEAM PROGRESS PSU (A M Thompson, G Garner, A Reed, H Halliday, D Kollonige, R Stauffer, W Ryan) NCAR (S E Haupt, J A Lee) Univ Maryland (R R Dickerson) Presentation to AQAST Team, Madison, 12 June 12 “Ozone Violations in Maryland (July 2011): Roles of Temperature, Chemical Reactions, Dynamical Processes” Penn State, Open Forum: “Nobel Knowledge on Climate Change”, February 19, 2008 ANNE M. THOMPSON Professor, Department of Meteorology College of Earth & Mineral Sciences, Penn State

  2. Tiger Team Project – Applications from DISCOVER-AQ, 2011, Maryland • Probabilistic forecasting tested in d-aq • * g Garner: Tested for MDE, 7/11; Paper in preparation • 2012 forecasts on Webpage! Customer: MDE • Comparison of pandora no2 & omi (A reed) • Main thrust of Tiger Team Effort: O3 non-attainment at Edgewood, MD. July 2011 D-AQ period exemplary in ozone violations. WHY?! • Examine role of meteorology, sea breeze. (RStaufferet al., in prep, 2012). AQ violation days = Sea Breeze • VOC samples (H Halliday) from Edgewood, (cf Beltsville, J Fuentes) over diurnal cycle for 4-5 days. Note: Beltsville more biogenic influence (DC), Edgewood more anthropogenic (Balto) • Chemical influence of actual VOC, Nox/NO constrains ozone formation rates in photochemical box model. Compare mechanistic uncertaintiesCB05, RACM(D Kollonige) • Ensemble WRF forecasting for 1-2 days in D-AQ (J Lee) Data Models

  3. Thanks to AQAST & PSU Gator Research Team! Dr. Anne Thompson - Professor, Dept. of Meteorology Fulbright Scholar, South Africa (2010 – 2011); SHADOZ (1998 - present) (2005) Jared Lee NCAR & PSU, PhD, 6/12 Dr. Debra Kollonige (2012) NASA AQAST (2012) Newest Gator! PhD Atmospheric Physics, UMBC 12/2011 (2008) Greg Garner DISCOVER-AQ / NASA AQAST (2011); EPA STAR (2011) Evaluation of Air Quality Model Performance during the 2011 DISCOVER-AQ Campaign Ryan Stauffer (2010) CAPABLE (2010); DISCOVER-AQ (2011) Bay Breeze Impact on Surface Ozone at Edgewood, MD (2010) Hannah Halliday CAPABLE (2010); DISCOVER-AQ (2011) VOC Types for Beltsville and Edgewood MD on Select Days in July 2011 Andra Reed (2011) Comparison of Satellite and Ground-based Measurements of Total Column Ozone and Nitrogen Dioxide from Edgewood, MD in July 2011

  4. G Garner’s 2012 AQ Forecast Website: DC-MD (2 regions) –VA (5 regions)

  5. A Reed’s Pandora NO2 Analysis: Focus on “Poor” Agreement Days to Determine Meteorological Influences (Clouds, Aerosol Issues) OMI 15 July 29 July Edgewood -Pandora NO2 – x 10 (15) cm2

  6. H Halliday’s VOC Edgewood Data Summary

  7. D. Kollonige’s Pre-Analysis of Edgewood Chemistry based on DISCOVER-AQ Field Data July 10-11, 2011 CO, O3, and Isoprene July 21-22, 2011 CO, O3, and Isoprene * PSU’s NATIVE augmented MDE data w/ inorganic species (O3, CO, NO, NO2, etc.) and VOCs (isoprene, acetone, methanol, etc.) at Edgewood, MD for four days during D-AQ. * Uncertainties of measured model constraints can be determined by corresponding measurements from this dataset.

  8. D. Kollonige’s Sensitivity Analysis based on DISCOVER-AQ Field Data Met fields, inorganic species VOCs (lumped or explicit) Kinetic rate coefficients, product yields • Based on Chen et al. (2010) and Chen (2011), a novel method of quantifying uncertainty sources from model parameters of chemical mechanisms can be applied to D-AQ measurements. • Sensitivity analysis (SA) is: • Based on real conditions (Edgewood measurements). • Comprised of 100s of model parameters subject to variations w/in their uncertainties. • Using recently developed global SA method called Random Sampling – High Dimensional Model Representation (RS-HDMR),which maps input-output relations with only one set of random samples, greatly reducing the computational cost. • SA currently being performed on several chemical mechanisms (MCMv3.2, CB05, RACM, etc.) to understand O3 formation in MD. Random sampling (N values) of model inputs based on given PDFs Run model (chem. mechanism) N times to obtain N simulated outputs Assess sensitivity based on input/output relationships using RS-HDMR

  9. NCAR- J Lee & S Haupt Uncertainty Analysis for DISCOVER-AQ-July 2011 • Ozone violations during DISCOVER are related to a combination of physics, dynamics, and chemistry • Uncertainty in a forecast can be quantified using an ensemble approach. • Ensemble members can be constructed to span variability in physics and chemistry • Constructing the ensemble pdf of 1-2 July 2011 high ozone events will illuminate • the probability of such events • the relative roles of dynamic and chemistry uncertainty • Highlight seabreeze conditions(?) Example six members of SREF ensemble

More Related