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Evaluation of Ozone Forecasts by Eta-CMAQ Model in NEAQS Study

This study evaluates the operational and diagnostic performance of the Eta-CMAQ model suite in forecasting ozone during the New England air quality study. The model accurately reproduces observed ozone levels and captures important meteorological and chemical processes.

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Evaluation of Ozone Forecasts by Eta-CMAQ Model in NEAQS Study

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  1. Operational and diagnostic evaluations of ozone forecasts by the Eta-CMAQ model suite during the 2002 new England air quality study (NEAQS) Shaocai Yu$,Rohit Mathur+, Daiwen Kang$,Kenneth Schere+, Brian Eder+,Jonathan Pleim+, Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division NERL, U.S. EPA, RTP, NC 27711. $On assignment from Science and Technology Corporation + On assignment from Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA

  2. Introduction

  3. CMAQ Community Multiscale Air QualityModel • Community Model • Multiscale • consistent model structures for interaction of urban through Continental scales • Multi-pollutant • ozone, speciated particulate matter, visibility, acid deposition • and air toxics

  4. AIRMAP sites NE Model domain and site locations

  5. SO2 (CS) • Parrish et al., 1991: • Mobile source: CO, NOx • Point source (power plants): SO2, NOx • SO2/NOy<1:mobile source • SO2/NOy>1:point source CO (CS) SO2 (TF) • Sites were significantly influenced by polluted plume after 8/11: • mobile and point sources CO (TF) 8/11

  6. Results1. O3 episode (8/6-8/17/2002) Modeled and observed (diamond) O3 (ppb) ~45 ppbv O3 ~110 ppbv O3 (b) NMB=(model-obs)/obs

  7. NMB (max 8-hr) Model O3 Max 1hr Max 8hr AQS O3 (ppb)

  8. Results3. Time-series eval. O3 NO Harvard Forest NO2 PAN CO NOy 8/11

  9. Results3. Time-series at AIRMAP sites • Hanna et al. (2001): • 50% uncertainty in JNO2 • 40 ppbv (or 20%) uncertainty in max O3 • Model reproduces • 64-77% of observed JNO2 within a factor of 1.5 • Priority: more accurate determination of JNO2 in model

  10. Results 3. O3 Lidar vertical profiles Obs • Extremely tough test: • Temporal and 3-D field correctly • Model reproduced obs at low altitude and more uniform • Over predictions increase with altitude Model Ship Track

  11. Results (diagnostic evaluation) • NOx-sensitive regimes: [O3]/[NOx], Photochemical age: [NOz]/[NOy], O3 production efficiency: [NOz]/[O3] • NOx-sensitive regimes: [O3]/[NOx] • Arnold et al., 2003: • [O3]/[NOx]<14:VOC-sensitive • >46:NOx-sensitive • Both model and obs: three sites are mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%)

  12. ResultsPhotochemical age: [NOz]/[NOy] • Arnold et al., 2003: • [NOz]/[NOy]>0.6:aged NOx plume CS • For daytime (6 to 18 EST) hours: TF • Model and Obs: accumulating O3 • aging the NOx • in the similar way. HF

  13. Results O3 production efficiency • : O3-NOz slope • Parrish et al., 1993 : • O3-NOz slope: • upper limit of • : • Obs: 8.3 to 10.0 • Model: 4.2 to 5.1 CS TF • At rural sites in E US (Olszyna et al., 1994): • : 5 to 10 NOz O3 HF NOz

  14. Contacts: Brian K. Eder email: eder@hpcc.epa.gov www.arl.noaa.gov/ www.epa.gov/asmdnerl

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