The Story of Delivery under Blair

1. The Story of Delivery under Blair Michael Barber Moscow Higher School of Economics December 2009

2. “A mandate for reform…an instruction to deliver” • Tony Blair, on the meaning of the General Election he had just won by a landslide, 8 June 2001.

3. CAUSES OF FAILURE IN BUSINESS ORGANISATIONS • Complacency • Lack of guiding coalition • Underestimating vision • Under-communicating • Not removing obstacles • No short-term wins • Declaring victory too soon • Not changing the culture SOURCE: John Kotter

4. CAUSES OF FAILURE IN GOVERNMENT • Cynicism – track record of failure • Multiple small projects • Watered-down compromise • Lack of persistence • Institutional inertia • Poor design • Lack of clarity about goals • Incompetence SOURCE: Instruction to Deliver

5. CONTROVERSY WITHOUT IMPACT • TRANS-FORMATION • TRANS-FORMATION • Successful delivery • IMPROVED OUTCOMES • IMPROVED OUTCOMES • STATUS QUO … A MAP OF DELIVERY … • Boldness of reform • Quality of execution

6. Believe in step change • Get it done as well as possible • Clear sustained priorities • Avoiding distractions • “Confront the brutal facts” • Know what’s happening now • Understand stakeholders • People are impatient • “If everything seems under control, you’re not going fast enough” • Structure, culture, results • Avoid celebrating success too soon … AND DEVELOPING AMONG STAFF AN UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT DELIVERY REQUIRES • Ambition • Focus • Clarity • Urgency • Irreversibility

7. TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS • 1. Determine priorities • 2. Set targets/ define success • 3. Understand the challenge • 4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories • 5. Understand the delivery chain • 6. Build capacity at every level including the centre • 7. Create routines • 8. Solve problems as they arise • 9. Establish the right relationships • 10. Persist…

8. An Asian government relied on collaborative workshops and surveys to develop shared aspirations 3 • Refine existing or define new aspirations • A series of surveys with Cabinet Ministers were used to develop an initial list of six priority areas… • …then the six areas were tested again through a second set of surveys with Cabinet Ministers • The aspirations were finalized as part of a two-day delivery workshop • No response • National aspirations • No • Crime • Yes • Do you agree with the • following aspirations?* • AGENDA – DAY 1 • Corruption • Welcome • Session 1 • Working group • **Break** • Share out • Lunch • Session 2 • 9:00 • 9:15 • 10:00 • 11:00 • 11:15 • 12:00 • 1:00 • National government in Asia • Education • Poverty • Transport • Crime • Corr-uption • Educ-ation • Pov-erty • Trans-port • Basic infra-structure • Basic Infrastructure • Because key officials were involved throughout the process, the system leader knew aspirations were widely shared * Numbers are not actuals SOURCE: McKinsey delivery team

9. TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS • 1. Determine priorities • 2. Set targets/ define success • 3. Understand the challenge • 4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories • 5. Understand the delivery chain • 6. Build capacity at every level including the centre • 7. Create routines • 8. Solve problems as they arise • 9. Establish the right relationships • 10. Persist…

10. KEY QUESTIONS TO ANSWER IN A DELIVERY PLAN • What is the service delivery chain? • Who is accountable at the top . . . and all along the delivery chain? • What are the key actions (milestones)? • What is the timetable? • Who are the key stakeholders? How will they be brought on board? • What are the major risks? How will they be managed? • What impact will the actions have on the key outcomes (trajectories)? • What data do you need? Will it be early enough to act if progress is off track?

11. Can you break the data down by policy? • Can you break the data down by category? • What is the performance indicator? • Can you break the data down by locality? • What is the target? • How will you estimate the future? • How will you collect the data? • What is the historic data run? CONSTRUCTING A TRAJECTORY • Constructing a trajectory

12. Delivery indicator • Mid-trajectory • Low trajectory (policy has a lagged impact) • progress indicators • Policy step A • Policy step B • Policy step C • Project plan streams • Project plan streams POLICY DELIVERY – TRAJECTORIES • High trajectory (policy has an immediate impact) • Historical performance • Starting Point • Mid-term delivery goal • Long-term strategic goal • 95 • 90 • 85 • 80 • 75 • 70 • 65 • 60 • 0 • 96 • 97 • 98 • 99 • 00 • 01 • 02 • 03 • 04 • 05 • 06 • 07 • 08 • 09 • 10

13. Delivery chain Delivery system A key tool in evaluating the activity’s implementation is a delivery chain analysis Example: delivery system analysis for national literacy strategy in the UK Department National Agencies Local Agencies Frontline Users and Citizens Inspection and Reporting School inspection unit Department of Education Policy Direction School 18,500 Parents School district National Strategy 180 Pressure for improve-ments Independent Provi-ders Other Schools Networks Pupils Advice and Support Provided National Testing Regime Testing authority Head Teachers Subject Leaders Principal training agency Provided Training Newly qualified teachers teaching assistants Teacher training agency Built Strategy into Training SOURCE: USEDI Delivery Handbook

14. TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS • 1. Determine priorities • 2. Set targets/ define success • 3. Understand the challenge • 4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories • 5. Understand the delivery chain • 6. Build capacity at every level including the centre • 7. Create routines • 8. Solve problems as they arise • 9. Establish the right relationships • 10. Persist…

15. A delivery unit’s purpose, organization, and activities all must be directed at helping the system achieve its aspirations • Purpose • Organization • Key activities • Implement the aspirations defined by the system leader • Promote urgent and visible action • Amplify system leader’s authority over actors in the system • Ensure forward momentum toward aspiration, despite of bureaucratic inertia • Small, highly capable, responsive group of people • Reports directly to the system leader and has leader’s visible backing • Strong performance-driven, results-oriented culture • Monitor progress toward aspirations • Collect and analyze relevant data • Coordinate individuals to make sure results are on track • Report regularly to system leader • Take corrective action as necessary to achieve aspirations

16. TEN STEPS TO DELIVERING RESULTS • 1. Determine priorities • 2. Set targets/ define success • 3. Understand the challenge • 4. Plan to deliver: milestones, data and trajectories • 5. Understand the delivery chain • 6. Build capacity at every level including the centre • 7. Create routines • 8. Solve problems as they arise • 9. Establish the right relationships • 10. Persist…

17. Guiding Coalition Consider what is necessary to build support for aspirations at each level of the system 1 • Members of the guiding coalition act as the first set of core supporters and push others in the system to support the aspirations 4 • Finally, the guiding coalition members help ensure that end users and the public see the impact of the change 2 • Guiding coalition members interact directly with mid-tier leaders, helping develop their commitment and capabilities to achieve aspirations 3 • Guiding coalition members model change and communicate to the broader workforce, who have day-to-day responsibility for driving progress toward aspirations • Working from the center, the guiding coalition gradually • Builds a widening network of relationships to deliver the system’s aspiration • Develops leadership capacity throughout the system SOURCE: John Kotter; Michael Fullan, The Six Secrets of Change

18. 2001 • 2002 • 2003 • 2004 • 2005 I know what I want…but we’re so far from achieving it We’re not bold enough…all too incremental This is tough and the civil service needs to change At last some results…what should the next phase be like? Real progress… but why did all the drive have to come from my office? The Prime Minister’s agenda is right…but the pressure from him is relentless I feel huge pressure from the public and Opposition to communicate. How do I get this department to really deliver? It’s a real battle…and the public and media are never satisfied In the end, the PMDU and targets ensured we stayed focused Tough but worth it The minister drives us hard…and the staff don’t know what to do Is this just about the election result…or transforming Britain? We seem to be antagonizing people at the frontline We need to develop our collective capabilities We’re proud of our results…but the next phase will be harder Consider both immediate and long-term communication needs, as stakeholders’ concerns likely will evolve • In the UK PMDU, stakeholders’ perspectives evolved over the course of the delivery effort Prime Minister Ministers • National government in Europe Top civil servants

19. The problem of Autumn: Grinding out improved rail reliability

20. 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% PPM 70% 65% 60% 55% 0% Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 97 RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED AN ALL-TIME LOW AFTER THE HATFIELD CRASH IN OCTOBER 2000 National actual PPM (period data) Hatfield crash • Source: Department of Transport

21. 95% Post Hatfield peak 90% 85% 80% 75% PPM 70% Hatfield crash 65% 60% 55% 0% Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 97 RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR National actual PPM (period data) National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA) National moving annual average • Source: Department of Transport

22. 95% Post Hatfield peak 90% 85% 80% 75% PPM 70% Hatfield crash 65% 60% Autumn performance almost at pre-Hatfield levels 55% 0% Mar 98 Mar 99 Mar 00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar 97 RAIL PUNCTUALITY VARIES SEASONALLY AND REACHED A POST-HATFIELD PEAK THIS YEAR National actual PPM (period data) National Public Performance Measure (PPM) – actual data against Moving Annual Average (MAA) National moving annual average • Source: Department of Transport

23. 1. Establish a shared goal • 3. It’s all in the detail • Demanding and realistic • Align key players around the goal • Whistles and watches • Joint Control Centres • 2. Manage performance • 4. Autumn shouldn’t be a surprise • Don’t just connect the data, use it • Monthly reviews with each train operating company • The weather is a variable • Preparation should be constant RAIL: THE MESSAGES ARE CLEAR

24. THE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK ENABLES THE LIKELIHOOD OF DELIVERY TO BE PREDICTED Likelihood of delivery Department ……………………. Recent performance PSA Target …………………… Judgement Rating Rationale summary Degree of challenge Likelihood of delivery Quality of planning, implementation and performance management Capacity to drive progress Stage of delivery Red Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action Amber/Red Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action Amber/Green Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good Green Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation

25. ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: EXAMPLE Evidence for assessment Version 0.3 Recent performance Jul-04 Department Dept A Performance has lifted from 91.1% for the month of January 2004 to 94.3% for the month of April 2004 Area PSA 4 Level PSA level PSA level / PSA sub- target level / 2005 Delivery Goal Judgement Overall rating Rationale summary The target is a complex one. This is due primarily to the agreement on a 5-point plan (to Clarify the Target, Improve Incentives, Refocus Support from Agency , provide tools to improve and strengthen Leadership & Performance) which is now being actively and effectively implemented. Recent progress in two other areas further supports this reassessment. The xxxxx paper for launch in May will put the weight of the colleges behind the change in attitudes and new ways of working required in order to deliver the target. The publication of the xxxx review also sets a clear direction. Together they effect a step change in ability to overcome the key blockages impeding target delivery. Degree of challenge VH There is now a single plan based on the core 5-point plan agreed with PMDU, a single agenda and a very solid infrastructure to the programme which ensures control of all contributing teams and strategies. Effective governance and rigorous measuring and monitoring of deliverables and performance are fully established alongside a comprehensive and well directed programme of intervention in challenged areas. The management of risks and interdependencies is now well underway. Existing plans just need refinement and systematic implementation. Performance management is already proving effective and will be deployed increasingly as the target date approaches. Quality of planning, implementation, and performance management Likelihood of delivery AR AG A very effective leadership team have ensured that the right people, action plans, knowledge and performance management are all in place for continuing progress on the 5-point plan to be assured. Further capacity to drive is anticipated from the recruitment of an implementation manager and being able to firm up the long term contribution and commitment of key resources. Phased incentives and the star ratings plus clear focus on this have provided the necessary levers and put capacity to deliver on a firm footing. Capacity to drive progress AG The stage is borderline 2/3. Programme and project management and data collection and monitoring are all fully established and there is full confidence that all of the necessary strategies are now in place as a result of agreement on the 5-point plan. Stakeholder communication is good and pressure and support are being successfully combined to drive implementation forwards. Stage of delivery 2 Highly problematic - requires urgent and decisive action Additional Comments Red Problematic - requires substantial attention, some aspects need urgent action Amber/Red We need to achieve 95% in June for the overall rating not to move to amber/red Mixed - aspect(s) require substantial attention, some good Amber/Green Good - requires refinement and systematic implementation Green Not enough evidence N

26. THE DELIVERY REPORT: LEAGUE TABLE – JULY 2004 Rank (out of 21)

27. Rank (out of 21) = 1 = 1 3 4 5 6 = 7 = 7 = 7 = 10 = 10 12 13 = 14 = 14 = 16 = 16 = 18 = 18 20 21 PROGRESS ON THE PRIME MINISTER’S PRIORITIES CAN BE SUMMARISED IN A LEAGUE TABLE

28. A SIMPLE INDICATOR OF OVERALL PERFORMANCE CAN BE DESIGNED • December 2003, % • 47 • 53

29. BETWEEN DECEMBER 2003 AND JULY 2004 THERE WAS A 15% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN … • July 2004, % • 38 • 62

30. … AND BY DECEMBER 2004 A FURTHER 21% SWING FROM RED TO GREEN • December 2004, % • 17 • 83

31. Effective performance management • The right mindset • Bold reform • ‘Guiding coalition’ • Shared vision • Ambition • Clear priorities • Ministerial consistency • Urgency • Capacity to learn rapidly • Collaboration across government • Targets • Sharp accountability • Good real-time data • Best practice transfer • Transparency • Management against trajectory • Capacity to intervene where necessary • Incentives to reward success • Choice • Personalisation • Responsiveness to the community • Contestability • Vibrant supply side • Serious investment • 3 year funding for frontline • Flexible deployment of staff TRANSFORMATION WILL DEPEND ON COMBINING THREE ELEMENTS