BFP grant – GECAFS Objectives

1. BFP grant – GECAFS Objectives • Improve understanding of vulnerability of food systems to the stresses induced by GEC • Document food systems and analyze interactions w/ water stress and management • Develop methodology for basin-scale analysis based on five diverse case studies

2. BFP grant: outputs • 1.1: Literature review (delayed) • 1.2: conceptual framework – in progress • 2.1: five case studies – in progress • 3.1: analysis of diversity across regional sites – in progress • Two regional workshops: December 2005, June 2005

3. Outline of mid-term report • Site selection rationale and brief description (3 pages and 4 tables and map) • Food system characterization – in progress • Outcomes matrix to date, with source of data (with justification from literature or expert opinion ) • Activities (as far as you can) • Preliminary identification of most important activities, actors and outcome determinants and note gaps (even if not important) • Steps to complete • Plan and methods for vulnerability assessment

4. Mid-term report (2) • DUE to Polly Ericksen, GECAFS, by 30 January (pjer@ceh.ac.uk) • Food system characterization will also be reviewed by Varsha Joshi for accuracy and completeness (understanding that it still in progress)

5. Work plan for Vulnerability Assessment • Prepare first draft today • Submit second draft for comments to Polly Ericksen with mid-term report, including time and budget.

6. Vulnerability Work Plan • Contents should include: • Method to identify vulnerable parameters • Data source/ process to validate that these parameters are vulnerable and how • Quantitative or qualitative? • Relationship between poverty and vulnerability of the food systems

7. Review of IGP research

8. Fundamental GECAFS Questions • Q1: How will Global Environmental Change affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? • Q2: How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? • Q3: What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions?

9. GECAFS Research Framework Conditions & Scenarios Vulnerability & Impacts Feedbacks Decision Support Current Food Systems Adapted Food Systems Adaptation

10. GECAFS Research Approaches • 1. Conceptual & Methodological Research • Food Systems Concepts • Vulnerability Concepts • Scenario Construction • Decision Support Systems • 2. Food Systems Research in • Indo-Gangetic Plain • Caribbean • Southern Africa

11. GECAFS Indo-Gangetic Plain Project in relation to GECAFS Conceptual Research GECAFS IGP Research Research proposals GECAFS Food Systems & Vulnerability Research GECAFS Scenarios Research GECAFS DSS Research

12. IGP SPIS • GECAFS Science Plan and Implementation Strategy published early 2005. • Provides a framework for regional strategies • IGP main science questions identified • Regional SPIS would link/ provide coherence on work from multiple proposals

13. IGP Western Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions • high productivity – food surplus region • high investment in infrastructure • major use of fertilisers and ground-water for irrigation • in-migration of labour What will be the consequences of changed water management on rural livelihoods, intra-regional trade, GHG emissions and water tables? Conditions & Scenarios How will climate variability affect change in water demand in IGP food systems? Adapted Food Systems Current Food Systems How can changes in water management (e.g. though policy instruments and/or agronomic aspects) reduce vulnerability of rice-wheat productivity to climate variability?

14. IGP Eastern Sub-Region Characterisation and GECAFS Questions • low productivity – food deficit region • poor infrastructure and low inputs of fertilizer and water • high risk of flooding • out-migration of labour Conditions & Scenarios How would diversification effect rural incomes, labour migration, water quality and regional biodiversity? How will climate variability affect vulnerability of resource-poor farmers to flooding? Adapted Food Systems Current Food Systems What are the market opportunities, social constraints and technical options for diversifying crops (e.g. aquaculture) to make more effective use of flood and groundwater?

15. Plans for June Meeting • Consolidation of work under the BFP and transition to APN grant • Goals: • Share understandings on vulnerability of food systems • Work on Objective 3 • Deeper analysis of GEC and water issues • Method to links to stakeholders and develop DSS • Introduction to scenarios

16. Question for discussion • Who are the decision makers that GECAFS should be linking to? • Nominate two people from your district to invite in June • In July will hold small district-level workshops on DSS

17. Methodology issues remaining • Describing activities • How determine key activities/ outcomes? • Links between activities and outcomes • Sample size for primary data collection • When to use primary or secondary data? • Unified list of food security outcome determinants

18. Methodology issues (2) • “Quantifying” vulnerability • Mapping food system vulnerability • Tradeoffs among food system outcomes?

19. Sample strategy • Stratify urban by income level • Stratify rural by farm size or landless • Number of villages? • Spatial variation also important in some of the sites • Distance from market, location on canal, source of irrigation • Same number from each village, less from urban as is smaller • Ideal number of households is between 150 and 200 • Keep research journal while doing surveys • Focus group discussions also suggested

20. Contributions to BFP Objective 3 • Site selection rationale and description • Map of sites across IGP • Method for showing diversity of food systems across sites • Method for showing differential vulnerability of food systems to GEC-induced changes in water availability and management

21. Meeting Objectives • Final review of five selected case study sites in the Indo-Gangetic Basin • Review food system descriptions for five IGB sites • Develop mutual understanding of how food systems might be vulnerable to GEC • Outline draft BFP report for Feb 2006 • Develop work plans for BFP grant through July 2006