Space-Based Solar Power An Opportunity for Strategic Security

1. Space-Based Solar PowerAn Opportunity for Strategic Security

2. Outline • Trends of Concern • Space-Based Solar Power • DoD, National, and International Impact • The Role of U.S. Government Leadership

3. The Energy ChallengeOur Generation’s Challenge When asked shortly after WWII: “Prof Einstein, what do you see as the greatest threat to mankind?” His prompt reply: “Exponential growth.”

4. Middle East 3% Western Europe 5% Eastern Europe 7% Our Hemisphere 13% (US = 4%) Asia 56% Africa 13% The Energy Challenge Trends of Concern Population Energy • Energy growth tracks w/ population & economic growth • Liquid fossil fuels may peak before alternatives come on line causing inability for supply to match demand, shortages & economic shock,instability / state failure, and great power competition • Three energy concerns: 1) mobility fuels, 2) base-load electricity, 3) peak-use electricity • By 2025, the world will have added 2 billion more people, 56%of the global population will be in Asia, and 66% will live in urban areas along the coasts Climate Change American Competitiveness • Increased CO2 production may alter the Earth’s climate, possibly causing: • Rising ocean levels and loss of coastal areas • More intense tropical storms & humanitarian ops • Agricultural climate change—causing migration, and shifts in power, ethnic & land based conflict • The U.S. is losing globalmarket share & leadership • R&D investments & skilledworkforce are declining • "a major workforce crisis in the aerospace industry…a threat to national security and the U.S. ability to continue as a world leader.”

5. The Energy ChallengeFuture Energy Options Must Be… • Following wood, coal, and oil, the 4th energy must be*: • Non-depletable - to prevent resource conflicts • Environmentally clean – to permit a sustainable future • [Continuously] Available – to provide base-load security for everyone • In a usable form – to permit efficient consumption & minimal infrastructure • Low cost - to permit constructive opportunity for all populations • A portfolio of substantial investments are needed, but options in the next 20-30 years are limited… * Adapted from Dr. Ralph Nansen’s book, “Sun Power”

6. The Energy Challenge But What If National Leaders Had A Solution… • That Directly Addresses Global Energy Security Concerns? • Can Deliver Power to World’s Energy Rich and Poor Alike • Provides A Truly Sustainable & Clean Energy Path Thru 21st Century • While Enhancing U.S. Competitiveness and Export Opportunities? • Today’s U.S. Technical Leadership Can Become Economic Boom • (Space Carrying Trade, Energy Export, Material Science, Robotics,…) • With Pre-existing U.S. Public Support? • 2002 American Space Use Poll - #1: Space Energy #2: Planetary Defense • That Propels A Respected U.S. International Leadership Image? • Demonstrating a Global Solution to a Global Problem • And Responds to the Interests of Both Political Parties? • Benefiting Conservative Business Interests • Benefiting Liberal Social & Environmental Interests

7. Capabilities and ChallengesWhat is Space Solar Power? • Solar Energy iscaptured in space by large photovoltaic arrays and transmitted via a coherent microwave or laser beam to an Earth receiver where it is converted into either base-load electric power, low-intensity charging power, or synthetic fuels • Sunlight captured in space is many times more effective in providing continuous base load power compared to a solar array on the Earth • SBSP has been studied since 1970’s by DOE, NASA, ESA, and JAXA, but has generally “fallen through the cracks” because no organization is responsible for both Space Programs and Energy Security Space Solar Solar Intensity 1,366 W/m2 No Night Min Weather Ground Solar Solar Intensity 1,000 W/m2 Night Loss Weather Loss

8. DoD, National, and International ImpactInvest, Survive, Flourish and Grow – A Future History Sustainable Civilization Stable Population Stable Climate Demographic Transition Reduce Conflict Reduce GHG Stellar Probe Less Poverty Nations develop Travel Growth in GDP Industrialization Export Markets Telecom Hurricane Diversion Tourism Clean Energy Asteroid Defense Directed Energy OMV SBSP Beamed Propulsion Tether “Dredge Harbor” Reusable Launch Vehicle ISRU Wireless Power Transmission Space Radar Traffic Control Energy Infrastructure

9. DoD, National, and International ImpactSBSP Economic Opportunities • Energy Sales • U.S. Energy Companies & Utilitiesas Global Market Suppliers of Clean Energy • Space Access • Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) for Rapid/Low-Cost SpaceAccess (<$500/kg) • Space Tourism / Travel • Lunar resource extraction/utilization following NASA exploration • Orbital Infrastructure • In-space Transport and Maintenance • Space Manufacturing Systems • Robotic Systems • Power Generation • High-efficiency/High-volume Space & Terrestrial Solar Collection Systems • Space & Terrestrial Power Distribution Technology • Wireless Power Beaming • Terrestrial Remote Power Transmission (Low-Cost Modern Infrastructure) • Continuous Electronics Re-Charge (Expanded Wireless Capabilities) • Enhanced Telecommunications Capabilities (Industrial & Personal) • Enhanced/Persistent Earth Monitoring (Radar Systems)

10. DoD, National, and International Impact SBSP National Security Benefits • Space Access and Maneuver • RLV Development for Operationally Responsive Space • Increased technical readiness for Space Tethers • Surveillance • High Power and Large Aperture development for Space Radar • Space Structures • Higher efficiency and Lighter Weight Solar Cells • Increased technical readiness for Membrane & Solar Dynamic Structures • Industrial and Science & Technology Capabilities • Preservation of a Robust Aerospace Industry • Science and Engineering Educational emphasis • Advanced Robotics and Unmanned Systems • Operational Maneuver on Earth • Increased technical readiness for Direct Beaming of Transmitted Power • Electricity-to-Fuel Conversion competence

11. DoD, National, and International ImpactDoD SBSP Energy Applications • 24/7 Off-Grid Garrison Base Power • 5 - 15 MW/day rectenna • 24/7 Deployed Base Power & Fuel • 5-8 MW continuous requirement • JP-8 via Sabatier & refining processes • Floating rectenna = sea base capability • Humanitarian/Nation Building Power • Defendable electrical power supply • Energy w/low infrastructure cost/time • Mobile Platform/Soldier Power • Direct beaming to air or seaborne platforms • Low-power beaming for soldier recharge • Enables permanent surveillance/ops • Space Applications • Satellite power/maneuver • Space-based radar • Debris de-orbit Courtesy of Northrop Grumman Courtesy of Raytheon

12. Capabilities and ChallengesIf this has been looked at before, what’s changed? Technology! • 40% Efficient Solar Cells! • Materials / Nanotechnology • Radar & Laser Technology • Robotics / In-Space • Construction & Servicing • Deployable / Gossamer • Structures • Thermal Protection • Tethers NRC-Validated NASA Fresh-Look & SERT Studies

13. Capabilities and ChallengesIf this has been looked at before, what’s changed?

14. Capabilities and Challenges Security & the Space Solar Power Option • Space Based Solar Power (SBSP) is an attractive long-term technology option that involves a compelling synergy between Energy Security, Space Security, and National Security • Japan, China, India & EU already see the potential • The most significant technical challenges are the development of • Low-cost re-usable space access • Demonstration of space-to-Earth power beaming • Efficient and light space-qualified solar arrays • Space Assembly, Maintenance and Servicing, and • Large in-space structures • These are in areas that already interest the DoD and others – and with modest departures to current R&D efforts could retire many of the technical barriers to Space-Based Solar Power

15. DoD, National, and International ImpactProposed Vision & Objectives of Space Solar Power Assured Energy Security for the U.S. and Its Allies through Affordable & Abundant Space Solar Power with First Power within 25 years - VISION - The United States and Partners enable – within the next 20 years – the development and deployment of affordable Space Solar Power systems that assure the long-term, sustainable energy security of the U.S. and all mankind Innovation that Creates Novel Technologies and Systems Enabling New, Highly Profitable Industries on Earth and in Space Assured U.S. Preeminence in Space Access and Operations through Dramatic Advances in Transformational Space Capabilities

16. The Role of U.S. Government LeadershipA Potential Action Plan • Space-Based Solar Power… • Should be re-evaluated for technical feasibility and deliverability in a strategically relevant period (other nations have stated goals & started R&D) • May offer significant & unique energy security benefitsin an international context • Requires only a relatively modest additional investment to address key barriers • Represents a small departure from existing U.S. (DOD, DOE, NASA) programs…but involves tremendous synergies with other national goals • The U.S. may want to consider a major SBSP program • U.S. Government can play a significant role because its responsibilities and programs “straddle” energy, security, and space • Next Steps (Action Items/Options): • (A) NSSO initial situation-assessment architecture study through Sep 2007 • (O) Sponsor a fast-paced directed ‘quick-look’ study (3-4 months; $500K) • (O) If the results are positive, a larger scale, ‘seedling-type’ study should be undertaken to add legitimacy (12 months: $2M) • (O) Results would inform a range of decisions by NLT 2009 • (O) Form a national SBSP organization w/concept demos in 5-7 years

17. The Role of U.S. Government LeadershipDevelopment Steps for Consideration • “Quick Look” Study [4-months, $500K] • “State-of-the-art” review using existing NASA modeling tools • “Seedling” Study [12-months; $2M] • Technical, financial, environmental, organizationalrisk-retirementroadmaps • Identify legitimate SBSP development partner groups • Build a credible business case • Private/Public SBSP Corporation • Congressionally approved entity using successful Commsat model • Concept Demonstrations [5-7 years] • Should include international & entrepreneurial partnership where able • DARPA-led w/NASA, DOE, NSF & DoD collaboration • Ground-to-ground high-power microwave or laser transmission • Ground-to-aerostat-to-ground microwave or laser retransmission • LEO- and GEO-to-Earth power transmission • Space-to-space power transmission • Orbital maneuver & space infrastructure technologies • Low-cost space access technology development and flight demonstrations

18. RLV WPT The Role of U.S. Government LeadershipJoining Government, Commercial, & Int’l SBSP Interests DOE Solar Cells Terrestrial Distribution DoD NASA - VISION - The United States and Partners enable – within the next 20 years – the development and deployment of affordable Space Solar Power systems that assure the long-term, sustainable energy security of the U.S. and all mankind Space Structures Tethers O&M DARPA Nat’l Labs; Academia Robotics, Materials, Computational Intelligence, Lasers, Chips, WPT… NSF Private Investment Energy, Aerospace, Telecom, Venture… International “Intelsat-Type” Corporation Energy & Launch Services ”We Do These Things Not Because They Are Easy, but Because they Are Hard…” - President John F. Kennedy

19. ConclusionSpace-Based Solar Power – A Strategic Opportunity for America Energy Security Environmental Security SPACE-BASED SOLAR POWER Economic Competitiveness National Needs Bring feasibility to the attention of nat’l leadership - highlight USG’s enabling role

20. Back-Up Slides

21. The Potential of Space Solar PowerBroad Public Support • Over the years, a number of goals have been proposed for the U.S. space program including missions to Mars (Zubrin 1996), space colonization (O'Neill 1976), a return to the moon (Spudis 1996), and space tourism (David 2004). The purpose of this exploratory study was to measure the level of public interest in different space goals. • Two goals stood out far beyond all others. The first of these goals was developing the capability of using Space-Based Solar Power (SBSP) or space energy to meet the nation's energy needs. In 2002 32 percent, nearly 1/3 of the respondents, supported this goal. In 2005, 35 percent, again nearly 1/3 of respondents, supported the development of SBSP. The second goal that appeared to receive broad support was developing the technology to deflect asteroids or comets that might threaten the Earth with impact (planetary defense). 2002 Survey - National Space Goals Matula & Loveland, 2006

22. High Capital Costs Long Payback No Fossil Fuel Feed Renewable 2.07 GW (peak) High Capital Costs Long Payback No Fossil Fuel Feed Renewable 2.5 GW (sustained) SBSP is most like Hydroelectric

23. How big is the SBSP resource? 363 TW-yrs Total area of a cylinder of 1km width and perimeter at GEO (w*2*pi*r). In reality, you would not build a ring, and individual powersats could be turned normal to the Sun. However a ring establishes the max upper limit of energy and is a good approximation. For a ring, max limit of actual radiation available in a 1km band must be reduced by self-shielding (pi/2), and perhaps worst inclination degrees (cosine of 23 degrees = .92) Remaining Oil Reserve of 1.285 TBBL = 249.4 TW-yrs More and more of this oil will have to be used to recover remaining reserves ~250 TW-yrs ~212TW-yrs Annual World Energy Demand (All Forms) Annual energy Available in just 1 km of GEO All Recoverable Oil 50 TW (2050) 30 TW (2025) Annual Energy-to-Grid On-Earth 21 TW assuming 10% Solar-to-Grid of 1 km 15 TW (2007) Annual Oil Production ~8TW-yr

24. Drilling Up: How large is the GEO solar resource? 1km 1 year x 1 km wide band ≈ 212 TW-years All Remaining Oil Resource ≈ 250 TW-years Every Kilometer-wide band at GEO receives nearly as much energy per annum as the content of the entire remaining oil 1.28 T BBls of oil remaining

25. Nigeria 1 North Korea 1.5 Burma 1.5 U.S.A. Annual Growth 1-2 Venezuela 4 Thailand 5 Mexico 10 South Korea 10 Africa 20 India 23 Japan 52 China 68 U.S.A. Base-Load 69 OECD Europe 150 U.S.A. Total Capacity 200 World Today 742 Electric Gen only World 2100 10,000 All Energy for projected population at Developed Lifestyle (50TW) How many 5GW SPS would it take to displace generating capacity?

26. The Limits of SBPS 5 GW • Assuming Each SPS delivers 5GW: • It would require up to 4 SPS to built per year to meet current annual growth in US Electrical Demand (2% of 1 TW, or 20 GW) • It would require 200 SPS to replace current US Generating Capacity of 1 TW (70% Fossil Fuels, 50% Coal) • It would require 742 SPS to meet today’s World Electrical Demand of 3.7TW, spaced one every 357 km • It would require 10 to replace current generating capacity of Mexico or South Korea;1 for Nigeria, 4 for venezuela, 5 Thailand, 20 doubles all africa, • It would require 10,000 SPS to meet the Total Energy Demand of the World in 2100, estimated to be 50TW (50,000GW, or 5KWe for each of 10 billion people)

27. A New ApproachSpace Power Feasibility Evolution ESA Study Japan METI / JASDA Study DC-X X-33 RLV TAV NASA/NSF JIETSBSP NASA Fresh Look NASA / DOE studies NASA SERT NRC Report Reference Design Peter Glaser Proposes NRC

28. $.7 – 1.2B first unit cost ($6-10B Development) $1 - 5B Does this look like an energy project to you? = It should. Think of an RLV as an energy mining platform. The way to energy security is through space.