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The Science of Growth We’re hiring! Contact krudin@google.com Ken Rudin Head of User Growth @ Google Confidential & Proprietary Confidential & Proprietary
80% of new products fail -- Clayton Christensen, Harvard Business School Confidential & Proprietary
Growth is the Scientific Method applied to moving a metric Confidential & Proprietary
The Scientific Method Observe Hypothesize Experiment Confidential & Proprietary
The Growth Process Understand Identify Experiment Confidential & Proprietary
The Growth Process Understand Identify Experiment Iterate Confidential & Proprietary
Understand // Goal: Understand Key Growth Levers Confidential & Proprietary
Understand // Goal: Understand Key Growth Levers // Growth Levers: Things you can optimize that move growth metrics Confidential & Proprietary
1. North Star metric // Defines growth ←reflects user value // One metric ←creates focus Confidential & Proprietary
2. User Flows Confidential & Proprietary
3. Growth Model Example: Example: DAU = (new users) + (returning users) North Star metric Inputs Confidential & Proprietary
3. Growth Model Example: Example: DAU = (new users) + (returning users) new users = ( (app store visitors from viral invites) + (app store visitors from mobile ads) + (app store visitors from marketing/PR) ) * (app store download conversion rate) * (onboarding/activation completion rate) returning users = (return users from notifications) + (organic returns) Confidential & Proprietary
3. Growth Model Example: Example: DAU = (new users) + (returning users) new users = ( (app store visitors from viral invites) + (app store visitors from mobile ads) + (app store visitors from marketing/PR) ) * (app store download conversion rate) * (onboarding/activation completion rate) (returning users) * (invites sent per returning user) * (invite CTR) app store visitors from viral invites = returning users = (return users from notifications) + (organic returns) Confidential & Proprietary
Identify // Goal: Identify ideas for moving growth levers Confidential & Proprietary
Growth levers are easier to move North Star metric Growth lever Confidential & Proprietary
Identify ideas for moving growth levers // Every “What” needs a “Why” Confidential & Proprietary
Identify ideas for moving growth levers // Every “What” needs a “Why” // Why = Emotion (not logic) Confidential & Proprietary
Principle: Goal Gradient Version 1 Version 2 Confidential & Proprietary
Principle: Goal Gradient Version 1 Version 2 +78% completed punch cards Confidential & Proprietary
Goal Gradient applied Original Confidential & Proprietary
Goal Gradient applied Redesigned Confidential & Proprietary
Principle: Intrinsic vs Extrinsic motivation Confidential & Proprietary
Intrinsic vs Extrinsic motivation applied Original Financial incentive only Intrinsic only Confidential & Proprietary
Intrinsic vs Extrinsic motivation applied Original Financial incentive only Intrinsic only +50% CTOR +80% 30-day spend Confidential & Proprietary
Experiment and Iterate // Goal: Test ideas and learn Confidential & Proprietary
Iteration multiplies impact and learning Confidential & Proprietary
Understand Identify Experiment // North Star metric // User Flows // Growth Model // Ideas to move levers // “What” & “Why” // Run experiments // Analyze // Iterate Result: Higher Impact Growth Initiatives Confidential & Proprietary