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Background Traffic and Trends

Learn about background traffic, manual trend analysis, FSUTMS modeling, and different growth types like linear, geometric, and declining. Compare historical volumes for insightful forecasting. Utilize the Trends Spreadsheet for data analysis.

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Background Traffic and Trends

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  1. Background Traffic and Trends

  2. What is Background Traffic? • Expected increase • from overall growth • traffic from other developments • But not the one you’re analyzing

  3. Background Traffic • Manual method • Traffic trend analysis • FSUTMS • Background traffic is a result of modeling effort

  4. Trend Analysis • Historical data for at least the last five years • Check for major transportation changes • Which change capacity and attract new trips • Check for major development changes (St. Joe – Panhandle)

  5. Different Types of Trends • Linear growth • Geometric growth • Declining growth

  6. Year 1997 1998 1999 1998 1997 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Volume (AADT) 12,300 12,000 13,500 13,220 13,000 13,775 14,125 15,000 14,000 15,000 15,600 15,300 16,500 15,900 16,500 Some Historical Volumes

  7. Linear Growth • Based on a straight line developed from historic traffic growth • Assumes constant growth • Does not consider capacity restraint • Constant land use growth over time

  8. Linear Growth Future = Rate (Year) + Existing y y = mx + b x For areas experiencing consistent growth

  9. Geometric Growth • Based on constant percentage of growth from previous year • Most applicable with available capacity and exploding growth

  10. Geometric Growth Future = Existing (1 + Rate) Number of years y y = y0 (1 + r)n x For areas experiencing high growth and less capacity restraint

  11. Declining Growth • Based on declining rate of growth • Dense urbanized areas • Remember: even fast growth areas eventually slow (built out)

  12. Declining Growth Capacity y  y = y0 + X X X X 1 2 3 n + + . . . x For areas approaching build out and maturity

  13. Results Comparison 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 AADT Linear Declining Geometric

  14. Using the Trends Spreadsheet

  15. i Mash “i” button Choose station

  16. Write it down

  17. With the Traffic DVD In Your Computer • Open the Excel Spreadsheet • Trend-V02_XML.xls

  18. Enable the Macros

  19. Default Opening Screen

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