Strategic Planning for Coastal Flooding and Erosion

1. Strategic Planning for Coastal Flooding and Erosion Nick Hardiman Senior Coastal Adviser Environment Agency Strategic Overview

2. Overview The scale of the challenge Environment Agency coastal strategy Managing for uncertainty Avoidance and adaptation Challenges for the strategic approach

3. The scale of the challenge – sea level rise 12-76cm sea level rise by 2080 Extreme predictions of up to 1.9m by 2100 Wave height changes unclear: Winter mean -35cm to +5cm, annual maxima -1.5m to +1m

4. Storm surge UKCP09 predicts storm surge to be not more than 90mm anywhere in UK – but this is on top of sea- level rise.

5. Rainfall patterns UKCP02 UKCP09 More intense rainfall contributing to cliff erosion? 50% probability level, central estimate

6. Risk to people and property Approximately 1.3 million people at coastal flood and erosion risk in England & Wales About 1 in 25 properties are at risk from sea flooding About a quarter of the coastline eroding at >10cm/year – but up to almost 2m/yr in some places 740 properties at risk from erosion in next 20 years

7. Environment Agency Strategy • Establishes a ‘line of sight’ from national to local strategy • Emphasises local understanding and action • Partnership working – and funding • Sustainable, catchment/coastal cell approach bringing multiple benefits where possible UNCLASSIFIED

8. Shoreline Management Plans (1) • Hold the Line • No Active Intervention • Managed Retreat • Advance the Line

9. Shoreline Management Plans (2) • Not development plans, and not statutory • Intensive public engagement and consultation • Long-term - set the ‘direction of travel’ • Can be challenged, changed and are subject to funding availability • Use consistent data sets informed by local expertise

10. Managing for uncertainty • Project design that allows for future adaptation features • Local management policies responsive to monitoring • Integrating coastal management planning with development planning

11. Shoreline Management Plans – a guide for development planners UNCLASSIFIED

12. Risk avoidance – using the development planning system 106. Local planning authorities should reduce risk from coastal change by avoiding inappropriate development in vulnerable areas or adding to the impacts of physical changes to the coast. They should identify as a Coastal Change Management Area any area likely to be affected by physical changes to the coast, and: ●● be clear as towhat developmentwill be appropriate in such areas andin what circumstances; and ●● make provision for development and infrastructure that needs to berelocatedaway from Coastal Change Management Areas. 107. When assessing applications, authorities should consider development in a Coastal Change Management Area appropriate where it is demonstrated that: ●● it will besafe over its planned lifetimeand will not have anunacceptable impact on coastal change; ●●thecharacterof the coast including designations is not compromised; ●● the development provideswider sustainability benefits; and ●● the development does not hinder the creation and maintenance of a continuous signed and managedroute around the coast. 108. Local planning authorities should also ensure appropriate development in a Coastal Change Management Area is not impacted by coastal change bylimiting the planned life-time of the proposed development through temporary permission and restoration conditions where necessary to reduce the risk to people and the development. • Well-established flood risk assessment process • Respected Environment Agency development control • Estimated CBR of 14:1 • Coastal Change Management Areas

13. Coastal Change Management Areas • Consistent evidence base • Meaningful boundaries? • Opportunity as well as sacrifice • Flexibility on restrictions applied • Community input

14. Opportunities at the seafront • Blackpool – 3km of new sea wall with a design life of 100 years • Protects 1500 homes and businesses, plus new ‘urban park’ promenade • Partnership approach: £67.5m from Government, plus Regional Development Funds for public amenity

15. Coastal adaptation • UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – defence spending will not keep pace with change • Need to adapt proactively • Defra pathfinders experienced success and challenge – an emerging picture

16. Challenges for adaptation • Roll-back: • Is land available, is it cost-effective, is it technically feasible? Relocation: • Homeowners were not always happy with new plots • …and didn’t always want to move as a ‘community’ • Replacement plots sometimes contested by residents • Buy-and-lease: • Large initial outlay for local authority, slow unpredictable returns • Setting fair payments without ‘compensating’ is difficult • Managed re-alignment: • Working with natural processes vs biodiversity/ecosystem function • Often seen as a threat by communities – engagement intensive • Controversy surrounding ‘food security’, budget use, landscape etc

17. Challenges for the strategic approach • Engaging people about long term risk – 20 years as ‘short term’ • Empowering people to make decisions on sound but changing evidence • Encouraging investment security whilst retaining flexibility • Keeping strategic plans ‘living’ and active • Communicating uncertainty whilst maintaining authority • Giving people options now to change in the future