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MDG Summit Keeping the Promise Will we? And if we do, will it be good enough?. Rob Vos United Nations Policy Coherence for Development Paris, 1 October 2010. Main outcomes MDG Summit.
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MDG SummitKeeping the PromiseWill we? And if we do, will it be good enough? Rob Vos United Nations Policy Coherence for Development Paris, 1 October 2010
Main outcomes MDG Summit • Reaffirmation of all MDG commitments and need coherence with other agendas (e.g. sustainable development, FFD) • Support scaling up of successful policies: • Importance of national development strategies and ownership • Strengthened global partnerships • Follow up and improved accountability through ECOSOC and DCF and strengthening of monitoring systems
National policy coherence for the MDGs • Summit recommendation: • Encourage all countries to design, implement and monitor national development strategies. • Pursue MDGs in holistic and comprehensive way • UN to support in design national development strategies at country request
MDGs and national policy coherence • World Economic and Social Survey 2010: no one size fits all, but successful experiences suggest seeking coherence in terms of: • Broad approach to macroeconomic policies, main focus on full employment • Agricultural development is key • Adequate priority to infrastructure investment • Align macroeconomic policy incentives with industrial policies • Demands of sustainable development overarching in setting priorities for agriculture and industrial policies, infrastructure and energy development • Social policy itself needs to be coherent (universal social floor as basis) • No successful national strategy without enabling global environment(aid, trade, debt relief, technology transfer)
ODA: Summit Recommendations • Recommit to the United Nations “0.7%” aid target, implies roughly doubling of aid flows (via annual increments of $35 billion) by 2015 • Deliver to priority country groups • Deliver on aid effectiveness • Expand development cooperation among developing countries
MDG Summit recognized Gleneagles targetswill not be met • Expected aid shortfall in 2010 (in 2009 dollars): • $20 billion for total ODA • $16 billion for ODA to Africa
Yet, at Summit UN Members committed to deliver 0.5% of donor GNI in ODA by 2010
Making aid more effective Some progress in: • Alignment of technical assistance with country programmes • Untying of aid • Strengthening of public financial management systems Less progress in: • Donor use of recipient country systems • Predictability of aid flows • Reducing transaction costs of providing aid MDG Summit Outcome: • Strong commitment to more budget support and less policy conditionality • Role of DCF in strengthening mutual accountability
Aid effectiveness and MDG summit • Some unresolved issues of incoherence: • More earmarking of aid and more vertical funding versus need for more budget support • Additionality of aid for food security and climate (if not additional, the issue will be adequacy) • Role of innovative sources of financing in reforming the aid architecture • Alignment with other sources of financing • Role of aid in global rebalancing (“net transfer problem”)
TRADE: key MDG Summit recommendations • Intensify efforts to conclude a development-oriented Doha Round • Accelerate full implementation of DFQF market access • Eliminate agricultural (export) subsidies (and all measures with equivalent effect) by end 2013 • Strengthen Aid for Trade
Agricultural subsidies in developed countries remain high Total agricultural support in OECD countries
Aid for trade increased 35 percent, reaching a record level of $42 billion
Some key coherence issues in TRADE • “Aid for trade” versus NDS’s and budget support • Address inequities in “Aid for Trade” • Ensure DFQF market access is a “win” situation for beneficiary countries • Ensure Doha Round aligning of preference schemes is a “win” for all LDCs • Broader issues: see WESS 2010
DEBT SUSTAINABILITY: key MDG Summit recommendations • Offer option of moratoria to countries affected by emergency situations • Provide ODA in grant form to low-income countries • Set up schemes of independent arbitration or mediation, or organizing ad hoc meetings of a debtor with its creditors • Extend and re-open eligibility to participate in the HIPC Initiative • Convene a multi-stakeholder expert group on sovereign debt workout mechanism
Some key coherence issues in DEBT • Financing of MDG strategies and debt sustainability • Additionality of debt relief to ODA commitments • Sovereign debt workout mechanism with financial safety nets, compensatory financing, and new financial regulation
Can the promise be kept? • No major new commitments • Commitments for global partnerships no tall order economically speaking; political will needs to be shown in actions • Taller order is moving towards sustainable rebalancing of global economy