CAPTURING CAUSAL REASONING USING ADAPTIVE LOGICS

1. CAPTURING CAUSAL REASONING USING ADAPTIVE LOGICS (Within Research Project: Applying Adaptive Logics in the History and Philosophy of Science) Leen.DeVreese@UGent.be ADAPTIVE LOGICS CAUSALITY TO DEVELOP AND APPLY ADAPTIVE LOGICS THAT CAN EXPLICATE THE CAUSAL REASONING PROCESSES PERFORMED BY RESEARCHERS. AIM: • Development of ALcd: • Van Dyck, M., • Causal Reasoning Using • Adaptive Logics • Application of ALcd: • De Vreese L. & Weber E., • Application of the Adaptive • Logic for Causal Discovery. • (=application on sociological study • investigating the relation between • parental separation and smoking • initiation in adolescents) • Development of ALcm: • This will become an extension of Alcd. • Application of ALcm: • Applications of Alcm will probably in the first • place be taken from the domain of medical • science and daily reasoning, but the logic • is intended to be widely applicable • to all kinds of cases. • Development and Application of ALcs: • De Vreese L. and Weber E., • Searching for Singular Causal Explanations: • a formal analysis. • In this article, the analysis of the search for • an explanation of some shipdisasters is used • as a basis to commence the • development of Alcs. More • research work will follow. • Development of ALcf: • First, a basic logic handling counterfactual • reasoning (cf. Lewis) will be developed. • An extension of this logic is expected to be • able to handle the problems of trumping, • preemption, context-dependence and in- • transitivity. • Application of ALcf • Daily reasoning will probably form the first • source for applications of these logics, but • again, those logics should be applicable to • a wide range of domains. CAUSAL DISCOVERY ALcd (adaptive logic for causal discovery) ALcm (adaptive logic for causal reasoning using mechanisms) • What? • How do scientists reason from correlations to causal relations? • What is the function that mechanisms (can) play in this kind of causal reasoning? • GENERAL FRAMEWORK • The adaptive logic programme aims at developing formal logics that are able to • explicate the dynamic aspects of human reasoning. • Adaptive logics have some advantages with regard to classical logic: • Adaptive logics are able to capture two kinds of dynamics in a reasoning process: • External dynamics: conclusions can be withdrawn in view of new information. • Internal dynamics: conclusions can be withdrawn in view of the better • understanding of the premises. • The dynamic proof theory of adaptive logics makes it possible to handle e.g. • inconsistent data, conditions, priorities, … • The most important property of adaptive logics for this project is their ability to • capture conditional reasoning processes: some derivations can only be made • provided that certain conditions hold throughout the reasoning. • So what? • Philosophical conclusions with regard to the covariation/mechanism debate and the combination of both approaches. SINGULAR CAUSAL EXPLANATIONS ALcs (adaptive logic for singular causal explanation) • What? • How do researchers go on in their search for singular causal explanations? • So What? • Philosophical conclusions with regard to the specific characteristics of singular causal explanations in comparison with other kinds of causal reasoning. • FEEDBACK to General Framework • necessary adaptations • useful extensions • (formal) problems to be solved COUNTERFACTUALS ALcf (adaptive logic for causal reasoning using counterfactuals) • What? • How does one conclude to causal relations on the basis of counterfactuals?. • We focus in particular on the criticisms on David Lewis’ approach with regard to trumping, preemption, context-dependence and intransitivity. • So What? • Philosophical conclusions with respect to the counterfactual approach and her critics.