OLIGOPOLY Chapter 27

1. Superior Cheese OLIGOPOLYChapter 27 What determines how much market power a firm has? How do firms in an oligopoly set prices and output? What problems does an oligopoly have in maintaining price and profit?

2. Price or Cost (dollars per unit) 0 Quantity (units per period) Maximizing Oligopoly Profits Industry marginal cost Industry average cost Profit- maximizing price Market demand Profits Average cost at profit- maximizing output J Industry marginal revenue Profit-maximizing output

3. What does market power really mean? • Market power is the key to control. • Monopoly is a type of power that all firms dream of, yet pure monopoly is not permitted in our economy. • The next best thing is to PUSH the power base to the very edge of government acceptance. Gaining market share is a common term we hear from businesses and Wall Street.

4. MARKET POWER • Tom Thumb wants to gain market share from Albertsons. • Wal-Mart wants market share from Kmart… boy did they get it! • Central Market wants market share from Whole Foods • Google wants market share from Facebook.

5. “Defending the Lead”World-wide PC vender market share for third quarter. DMN- 10/16/08 Top 5 Worldwide PC Vendors, Market Share 4Q12 (unit shipment) World-wide quarterly report – 1/2013 http://www.icharts.net/chartchannel/top-5-worldwide-pc-vendors-market-share-4q12-unit-shipment_m37bzspdc • HP 18.4% • Dell 13.6% • Acer 12.5 • Lenova 7.3 • Toshiba 4.6 • Others 43.7%

6. Share of market- pizza and Iphones

8. Market Share-North Texas July 2013

9. Who is sharing? • Oligopoly is no exception… Outstanding feature of Oligopoly is “fewness” • OLI (derivation actually means few.. (do you remember your Oligarchy in government?) • Oligopoly has few sellers- so few that at least one firm is large enough to INFLUENCE PRICE • The vast amount of GDP is accounted for by firms in oligopolistic industries.

10. Oligopoly (cont'd) Oligopoly A market situation in which there are very few sellers. Each seller knows that the other sellers will react to its changes in prices and quantities.

11. Oligopoly (cont'd) Strategic Interdependence A situation in which one firm’s actions with respect to price, quality, advertising, and related changes may be strategically countered by the reactions of one or more other firms in the industry Such dependence can exist only when there are a limited number of firms in an industry.

12. Oligopolist • The oligopolist is a price searcher. • It produces the quantity of output at which MR = MC.

13. Characteristics of Oligopoly • Few firms control the market • High barriers to entry • Produce either differentiated or homogeneous products • Lack of available substitutes • Name some examples!

14. Patents Control distribution outlets (ticketmaster)(shelf-space for Fritos) Mergers and acquisitions Government regulation Nonprice Competition (big buck advertising) Training (technology know-how-training employees to use a certain product..changing is difficult Network Economies-get there first with the most (don’t buy a phone if your friends don’t have one.) Barriers to entry

15. Industries that are oligopolies • Steel industry • Aluminum • Film • Television • Cell phone • Gasoline • Airline

16. Companies - oligopolies • Four music companies control 80% of the market - Universal Music Group, Sony Music Entertainment, Warner Music Group and EMI Group • Six major book publishers - Random House, Pearson, Hachette, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster and Holtzbrinck • Four breakfast cereal manufacturers - Kellogg, General Mills, Post and Quaker • Two major producers in the beer industry - Anheuser-Busch and Miller/Coors (reason why it is not FTC watched) • Two major providers in the healthcare insurance market - Anthem and Kaiser Permanente • Small transportation – UPS, Fed X

17. Oligopoly (cont'd) Why oligopoly occurs Economies of scale Barriers to entry Mergers Vertical mergers Horizontal mergers

18. Price and Output Under 3 Oligopoly Theories • Cartel Theory - oligopolistic firms act as if there were only one firm in the industry. • Kinked Demand Curve Theory - assumes that if a single firm in the industry cuts prices, other firms will do likewise, but if it raises price, other firms will not follow suit. The theory predicts price stickiness or rigidity. • Price Leadership Theory - the dominant firm in the industry determines price, and all other firms take their price as given.

19. Why are certain industries composed of only a few firms? • cost economies and other barriers to entry keep the numbers small • mergers keep out the smaller guys) (enter the political key on who decides if mergers are not eliminating competition) • if economies of scale are substantial, reasonably efficient production will be possible only with a small number of producers… efficiency requires that the productive capacity of each firm be large relative to the total market. (large market share)

20. Continued • Technological progress has made more and more economies of scale attainable over time. • Other barriers such as: • patents, • control of strategic raw materials, • in some cases prodigious advertising (Budweiser) outlays which add a financial barrier to entry for other firms.

21. What does prodigious mean? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-r4Z1K_LDc

22. What do we see in the 21St Century? Many big corporations seeking more market share have been following a simple rule. “Don’t build what you can buy.” WSJ, February13,2006 Part of this zeal to purchase is to fill some of the empty production space created in the building boon of late 90’s…. This will allow for movement to capacity production which is more efficient. (translated- full employment.)

23. Oligopoly (cont'd) Vertical Merger The joining of a firm with another to which it sells an output or from which it buys an input Horizontal Merger The joining of firms that are producing or selling a similar product

24. Oligopoly (cont'd) Measuring industry concentration Concentration Ratio The percentage of all sales contributed by the leading four or leading eight firms in an industry Sometimes called the industry concentration ratio

25. Ways to measure degree of Oligopolization Concentration Ratio: • This ratio tells the share of output (or combined market share) accounted for by the largest firms in an industry OR… the total percentage share of industry sales that each firm possesses. Sometimes the market share of one company in the oligopoly is so great that it nearly resembles a monopoly. (remember the cell phone chart?)

26. Computing the Four-Firm Concentration RatioReferred as HHI Index

27. Are their other ways to get market power? Sure… several smaller firms can act in unison in the amount they supply and price they charge.. Even in small towns firms can have market power… (ACE Hardware, Krispy Kreme, or the Dunkin’Donut store in Eastjapip, NJ)

28. Key Point Concentration ratio is a quantitative measure of oligopoly The total percentage share of industry SALES of the four leading firms is the industry concentration ratio. (who has higher % of sales Ford, GM, orChrysler?) (the increased foreign trade has minimized the impact of the HHI ratio.) Obviously, the total aggregate sales are compiled = $ Then the sales for each firm is calculated. Come up with certain% of market share…

29. Herfindahl-Hirschman Index HHI This is the sum of the square of the market shares of each firm in the industry. Example.. Monopolist – one company controls entireindustry = 100% market share. HHI would be 100 (squared) 100x100 = 10,000 (All monopolies have 10,000 HHI) If firm A has 25% and firms B,C,D also have 25 % Take 25 x 25= 625 Add them up (625+625+625+625 =2,500 or the total number of squares for industry power is 2,500 Each firm has 625 squares.

30. Market Power

31. Market Power Albertson’s Kroger

32. Oligopoly (cont'd) The more U.S. firms face competition from the rest of the world, the less any current oligopoly will be able to exercise market power. Any ideas that come to mind on this concept?

33. So, where does government enter in this equation? • The Anti-trust division of the Justice Departmentand the applicable IRC has to decide if a gain of X% of the market share is destroying competition or not when a merger is suggested. HP/Compaq (will this destroy the competitive edge for Dell?) AMR/U.S. Air ???? 2. In 1992 the Justice Dept decided to use other parameters in determining anti-trust and destructive competition---- barrier to entry. If low, then highly concentrated industry might be compelled to behave more competitively. (hence, contestability and structure were now added to the merger equation.)a) does it look like a monopoly?b) does it behave like a monopoly?

34. What happens if one increases sales? • Increased Sales at the Prevailing Market Price • Increases in the market share of one oligopolist necessarily reduce the shares of the remaining oligopolists. • It is possible that an increase in sales by lowering the price may expand total market sales and increase the sales of an individual firm without affecting the sales of its competitors. But it doesn’t happen without setting off alarms within the industry..(Delta lowers its price- Southwest follows) (Pepsi lowers price to sell more.. Coke follow? Kinked Demand Curve concept

35. What is the objective here?

36. Then what happens??? • Retaliation • Oligopolists respond to aggressive marketing by competitors. • Step up marketing efforts. • Cut prices on their product(s). Rather than cut prices which causes a general “off the cliff for all concept.” (hence kinked demand curve) Oligopolists will engage in “non-price competition.” Hint: their products are differentiated for the most part.- American Airlines- more leg room… LOL! 

37. The Kinked Demand Curve Confronting an Oligopolist • The shape of the demand curve facing an oligopolist depends on the responses of its rivals to a change in the price of its own output. • The demand curve will be kinked if rival oligopolists match price reductions but not price increases.

38. Game Theory • A mathematical technique used to analyze the behavior of decision makers who try to reach an optimal position for themselves through game playing or the use of strategic behavior, are fully aware of the interactive nature of the process at hand, and anticipate the moves of other decision makers.

39. Game Theory • Each oligopolist has to consider the potential responses of rivals when formulating price or output strategies. • The payoff to an oligopolist’s price cut depends on how its rivals respond. • Game theory is the study of decision making in situations where strategic interaction (moves and countermoves) between rivals occurs.

40. Game Theory 0 • Game theory: the study of how people behave in strategic situations • Dominant strategy: a strategy that is best for a player in a game regardless of the strategies chosen by the other players • Prisoners’ dilemma: a “game” between two captured criminals that illustrates why cooperation is difficult even when it is mutually beneficial

41. Prisoners’ Dilemma Example 0 • The police have caught Bonnie and Clyde, two suspected bank robbers, but only have enough evidence to imprison each for 1 year. • The police question each in separate rooms, offer each the following deal: • If you confess and implicate your partner, you go free. • If you do not confess but your partner implicates you, you get 20 years in prison. • If you both confess, each gets 8 years in prison.

42. Prisoners’ Dilemma Example 0 Confessing is the dominant strategy for both players. Nash equilibrium: both confess Bonnie’s decision Confess Remain silent Bonnie gets 8 years Bonnie gets 20 years Confess Clyde gets 8 years Clyde goes free Clyde’s decision Bonnie goes free Bonnie gets 1 year Remain silent Clyde gets 1 year Clyde gets 20 years

43. Prisoners’ Dilemma Example 0 • Outcome: Bonnie and Clyde both confess, each gets 8 years in prison. • Both would have been better off if both remained silent. • But even if Bonnie and Clyde had agreed before being caught to remain silent, the logic of self-interest takes over and leads them to confess.

44. Moves in the economy Pepsi meets to decide how to gain market share If they reduce Pepsi cost in Plano, and have increased promotion, what will Coke respond with? Are they looking over their shoulder? Will any of that strategy be applied throughout the U.S. or is it effective only regionally. Dr. Pepper… what would strategy be in NE?

45. Price and OutputChecking the corporate pie for profit! • Price and Output • Price discounting can destroy oligopoly profits. • When it occurs, rival oligopolists seek to end it as quickly as possible.

47. Price and Output • To maximize industry profit, the firms in anoligopoly must agree on a monopoly price and agree to maintain it by limiting production and allocating market shares.===Illegal in U.S. – OPEC is example of how this works (Cartel) • Drug Cartel in Mexico .

48. Allocation of Market Shares • One way to distribute output is a cartel agreement. • A cartel is a group of firms with an explicit agreement to fix prices and output shares in a particular market. Cartels are illegal in the United States… OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is the most famous now.(11 countries) http://www.opec.org

49. Let’s Look at Cartels Each producer is assigned a % they may produce in the market. These are explicit production-sharing agreements. (most cheat due to high oil prices in market) Saudi Arabia has increasingly violated the % they were assigned by OPEC several times to: increase their market share and to help out the U.S. They may be less willing to do this in the future (continued war/Iraq)(new terrorism problems) (other countries join to ostracize any Arab nation that cooperates with U.S.) (supply/demand) (U.S. reduces dependency on oil… OPEC won’t want to stray too far.

50. The Cooperative Game: A Collusive Cartel • Cartel • An association of producers in an industry that agree to set common prices and output quotas to prevent competition.