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Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, and National Weather Service Director Norman, OK, October 10-12, 2007. National Weather Service. Multifunction Phased Array Radar: View from Operations. The Improvement Chain. Balanced Science Technology Infusion.
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Jack Hayes NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather Services, and National Weather Service DirectorNorman, OK, October 10-12, 2007 National Weather Service Multifunction Phased Array Radar: View from Operations
The Improvement Chain Balanced Science Technology Infusion NOAA Research Integration Information Technology Data Assimilation Research Dissemination Action Observations Modeling Predictions Feedback
Radar is critical to NWS Mission • Radar will remain as an operational sensor in the foreseeable future given its proven value. • NEXRAD reduced tornado injuries and deaths by up to 40% and 45%, respectively [Simmons & Sutter, WF, 2005] • Up to 47% of NWS text and digital products utilize radar data. A Typical Year Brings: • 7 Hurricanes • 1,000 Tornadoes • 5,000 Floods • 10,000 Violent Thunderstorms • Drought Conditions • 500 Deaths; 5,000 Injuries; $14 Billion in Losses
WSR-3 WSR-57 WSR-74 WSR-88D Robust NWS Science and Technology Infusion History 1992 1976 Ca. 1957 1958
WSR-57 Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / Tornado 19 Aug 2007 PAR PAR KTLX KTLX
Tornado Warnings Flash Flood Warnings Modernization Modernization NWS is Performance Driven Tornado lead time jumps from about 6 min to about 10 min after modernization Flash flood lead time jumps from about 20 min to about 50 min after modernization
Our Vision for the Future 2025 Vision • Neighborhood-scale warnings of: • High-Impact Weather events including a 45 to 60 minute tornado lead time • Increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours • Increasing quantitative precipitation estimation accuracy by reducing bias four-fold • – All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar and sensors sampling the boundary layer driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent computing along with adaptive systems • --Fewer deaths and injuries will result from longer lead times and improved accuracy
The Future: What will R&D bring? Time = 0 minutes Storm-scale Model Forecast at 60 min Probabilistic Tornado Warning Projected low-level reflectivity at 1 hour from storm-scale NWP model Most Likely Tornado Path 30% Developing thunderstorm.. 50% 70% T+60min T+50min T+40min T+20min T+30min 60 Minute Forecast Current
The Challenge: Demonstrate Service significance • Value of new technology to NOAA mission should be well demonstrated • The business case must rest on value/benefit • Want compelling examples of how warnings and services are improved
Toward Service Improvement:Tropical Storm Erin TVS near Norge, OK PAR PAR 19 August 2007 PARVCP 12 BMX 60 sector Images ~ 43 s KTLX KTLX WSR-88D VCP 12 Images ~ 4.1 min
Toward Service Improvements May 19, 1960 / May 29, 2004 Tornado
Informational Needs & RequirementsDerived from NOAA NWS Mission Needs NEXRAD resolution
Enabling Technologies Surveillance Radars Adaptive Data Integration Diverse, Short Wavelength Gap-Filling Radars (SWR) Radar Partnerships Vision Pulls the Radar Roadmap 2025 Vision Neighborhood-scale warnings of: (i) High Impact Weather events including a 45± minute tornado lead time; (ii) Hurricanes & Inundationimprovements in QPF increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours; (iii) Drought & WaterResource managementfour-fold improvement in QPE reducing in-rain bias from 4 mm to 1 mm – All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar, short-wavlength radars and other sensors sampling the boundary layer, driving regional integrated cloud-scale models and intelligent along with adaptive systems. WSR-88D (NPI) A4 A1 A2,3 B1 B4 B2 MPAR C2 C1 D1 D2 D3 SWR E1,2,3 Targets of Opportunity R&D Fiscal Year (CONCEPTUAL TIMELINE) Acquisition /Deploy.
