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Next Generation C limate D ata P roducts

Doug Nychka , IMAGe. Design Goals Transparent methodology Open source code. Explicit Uncertainty Leverages new statistics and climate informatics. Spatial trends in summer rainfall 1950-2010. Area weighted t rend for domain: .096 +/- .025. Estimated trend (%/year).

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Next Generation C limate D ata P roducts

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  1. Doug Nychka, IMAGe • Design Goals • Transparent methodology • Open source code. • Explicit Uncertainty • Leverages new statistics and climate informatics Spatial trends in summer rainfall 1950-2010 Area weighted trend for domain: .096 +/- .025 Estimated trend (%/year) Next Generation Climate Data Products • Example • 1700+ GHCN stations • All analysis uses the R data language • Estimate method similar to optimal interpolation • Uncertainty quantified by a 100 member ensemble of trend fields. Ensemble member at 95% upper limit (.121) Ensemble member at 5% Lower limit (.071)

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