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Short Background on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

Short Background on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases. Dr Ruth Nussbaum ProForest Presentation to the RSPO GHG WG2 meeting in Feb 2010. The Greenhouse Effect. Some energy is radiated into space, the rest is trapped as heat in the atmosphere – GHGs increase the amount of energy trapped.

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Short Background on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases

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  1. Short Background on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases Dr Ruth Nussbaum ProForest Presentation to the RSPO GHG WG2 meeting in Feb 2010

  2. The Greenhouse Effect Some energy is radiated into space, the rest is trapped as heat in the atmosphere – GHGs increase the amount of energy trapped The earth’s surface is warmed and radiates heat back into the atmosphere Solar radiation enters the atmosphere Source: GLECOSYS

  3. Main Greenhouse Gases • Carbon dioxide (CO2) • Stays in atmosphere: 1-2 yrs (uncertain) • Global warming potential: 1 (all other gases GWP relative to CO2) • Methane (CH4) • Stays in atmosphere: 12±3 yrs • Global warming potential: 23 (IPCC) • 1 tonne CH4 = 23 t CO2e • Nitrous Oxide (N2O) • Stays in atmosphere: 114 yrs • Global warming potential: 296 (IPCC) • 1 tonne N2O = 296 t CO2e

  4. Converting C to CO2e • Carbon converted to CO2-equivalent (CO2e) using molar weights • Carbon (C)= 12 • CO2 = 12+16+16 = 44 • Conversion factor (CF) = 44/12 = 3.67 • CO2e = tonnes of C * CF • Biomass conversion to CO2e • Trees approximately 50% C • CO2e = tonnes of biomass * 0.5 * 3.67

  5. GHG Concentrations Radiative Forcing (W/m2) Atmospheric Concentration Source: IPCC 2007

  6. 6.4 Gt + 1.6 Gt = 3.1 Gt 4.1 7.7 1.4 + 2.6 Gt 3.0 Gt 2.3 Gt 2.2 Gt + Fossil Fuels Oceans Atmosphere Deforestation Uncertain where this CO2 is going: assumed to be a land sink (e.g. regenerating forest) Taken up by “land”, with a 0.3 Gt residual unaccounted for Annual Global Sources and Sinks of GHGs For 2000-2008 For 1990-2000 Sources Sinks These values are in addition to background naturally occurring sources and sinks Figures taken from Global Carbon Project and are indicative only Gt = giga tonne = 1 billion tonnes

  7. Current Temperature Rise

  8. Projected Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios Projection 2009 Emissions: -2.8% GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7% Due to Global Recession Source: Global Carbon Project [Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS, updated; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; International Monetary Fund 2009]

  9. Projected Temperature Rise 2 C is the maximum temperature rise the UNFCCC “recommends” Our current trajectory is closer to 4 C

  10. Increased Asian Monsoon Projected Changes in Precipitation Consistent findings across scenarios

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