Definition of the sector

1. Tourism Industry: Employment and labour market challengesPrague June 2009Scenarios for the hotels & restaurant sectorPresentation by Jakob Stoumann, Senior analyst Oxford ResearchCopenhagen

2. Definition of the sector Hotels and other short stay accommodations • 55.1 Hotels • 55.10 Hotels • 55.2 Camping sites and other provision of short-stay accommodation • 55.21 Youth hostels and mountain refuges • 55.22 Camping sites, including caravan sites • 55.23 Other provisions of lodging n.e.c. Restaurants and bars, • 55.3 Restaurants • 55.30 Restaurants • 55.4 Bars • 55.40 Bars Canteens and catering • 55.5 Canteens and catering • 55.51 Canteens • 55.52 Catering • Different characteristics: • The Hotels, restaurants, and bars sub-sectors are both closely connected to tourism; Catering and canteens are barely linked to it at all. • In the Hotels, Restaurants and bars sub-sectors SME’s are very important. Parts of the catering sector (the contract catering sector) are characterized by high company concentration.

3. The Scenario methodology Two uncertainbut very important drivers for the Hotels and restaurants sector has been identified. Scenarios describe possible developments until 2020. • The general economic development: • Continued economic growth and globalisation or, • Economic recession and nationalism • The development of certain consumer trends • Puritanism or, • Escapism

4. Crossing drivers of change Economic growth and globalisation The ongoing economic crisis is just a minor and short economic slow down. With such a positive economic development increased globalisation will follow. Escapism Consumption is typically driven by the ‘faster, better, bigger’ ideology. Climate problems for example are not seen as a personal responsibility´. The escapists are concerned about health and the fairness of the world but tend to escape via wellness and traditional luxury. Puritanism Consumers will develop a more puritan and spiritual approach to consumption. The personal responsibility concerning for example health, environment, climate and fair trade is taken very serious. Saving before spending becomes more important. Economic recession and nationalism A recession will influence the society for the next 10-12 years. It will result in increased nationalism and regionalism where regions and nations turn their back to global cooperation concentrating on their own lack of resources.

5. The four scenarios Continued economic growth and globalisation Scenario 1 The Marco Polo Scenario Scenario 3 The Body Shop Scenario Puritanism Escapism Scenario 2 The Sunny Beach Scenario Scenario 4 The Asceticism Scenario Economic recession and nationalism

6. The Marco Polo Scenario • The Marco Polo Scenario • High individualisation • Some specialisation possibilities • Polarisation of the market • High growth in both inbound and outbound tourism • Wellness and traditional luxury Economic growth and globalisation Escapism

7. The Sunny Beach Scenario Escapism • The Sunny Beach Scenario • Mass produce, economies of scale • Highly price driven market • Conformity • Comfort – but no luxury • Regionalisation of travelling Economic recession and nationalism

8. The Body Shop Scenario • The Body Shop Scenario • High individualisation • Many specialisation possibilities • Segmentation of the market • Healthy lifestyle and holidays • Goodness: volunteering, fair trade, organic food, etc. Economic growth and globalisation Puritanism

9. The Asceticism Scenario Puritanism • The Asceticism Scenario • Basic living – simple holidaying • ‘Close-to-home’ tourism • Experiences: healthy, sustainable • and cheap • Food: vegetarian, organic, local produce, simple Economic recession and nationalism

10. Scenarios implications

11. Emerging Competences in the scenarios

12. Scenarios’ common skills needs • extended service skills Different lifestyles with increased focus on health, soundness and sustainability together with the increased expectation of high quality personalised services will require more knowledge and capabilities from the personnel in most of the scenarios; • social and (inter)cultural skills Also relates to the need for extended service skills, but includes cooperative ability, team spirit, self management, innovativeness, entrepreneurship, etc.; • skills within ICT and digitalisation In all of the scenarios, the sector will experience the increased use of ICT and digital and online solutions in most parts of the work organisation. • financial management increased globalisation, competition, company concentration, and squeezed profit margins are all processes that contribute to making financial management more and more important within the Hotels and restaurants sector. • flexibility and multiskilling in all of the scenarios, increased employee flexibility will be relevant in terms of working hours and/or in relation to work tasks and employees qualifications, and • combinations of traditional hospitality skills with new specialised skills This is a trend prevalent in all of the scenarios, though the specific skill combinations vary. In general, most of the scenarios suggest an increase in new complex and highly interdisciplinary occupations and skills needs.

13. Denmark Oxford Research A/S Falkoner Allé 20, 4. sal 2000 Frederiksberg C Danmark Phone: (+45) 33 69 13 69 Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33 office@oxfordresearch.dk www.oxfordresearch.dk Norway Oxford Research AS Kjøita 42 4630 Kristiansand Norge Phone: (+47) 40 00 57 93 post@oxford.no www.oxford.no Sweden Oxford Research AB Box 582 201 25 Malmö Sverige Phone: (+45) 33 69 13 69 Fax: (+45) 33 69 13 33 office@oxfordresearch.se www.oxfordresearch.se