Nils Petter Gleditsch Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW at

1. Environmental security and conflictLecture at HEI, 13 March 2007Course E 586 Resource and Environmental Conflict Nils Petter Gleditsch Centre for the Study of Civil War (CSCW at International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) & Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology

2. Armed conflicts, 1946–2005 For the data, see Harbom, Högbladh & Wallensteen (2006) and www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict. In this figure, the number of conflicts is normalized by the number of independent countries. Figure created by Lars Wilhelmsen.

3. Armed Conflicts in 2005 Countries with conflict on their territory in 2005 (dark brown color), countries with conflict on their territory after the end of the Cold War (light brown color), and the geographical centre of the conflict (red circle). Source: Halvard Buhaug, on the basis of the Uppsala/PRIO conflict data, see www.prio.no/cscw/armedconflict.

4. Evolution of the security concept Traditional – national (military) security Common security Comprehensive security - national security (freedom from war and occupation) - political security (freedom from repression) - economic and social security (freedom from want) - cultural security (freedom from ethnic/religious oppression) - environmental security Insecurity should be reserved for major threats!

5. Environmental security • Environment: physical factors that condition human affairs • Environmental security means to reduce or prevent • environmental consequences of war • environmental disasters at the level of war • erosion of the earth’s carrying capacity • natural disasters • war and armed conflict resulting from environmental change

6. Consequences of Armed Conflict • Battle-related deaths and war-related deaths • Genocide and politicide in war and after • Destruction of physical and human capital, slow ec. growth • Weaker social norms and political chaos • Weapons proliferation, crime • Refugees and internally displaced persons • Regional effects • Environmental destruction (e.g. landmines) • - Vietnam War • - Gulf War • - Landmines and cluster weapons • - Nuclear winter

7. Environmental disasters at the level of war • Resource scarcity as public health problem • lack of clean freshwater and sanitation • Industrial accidents • Bhopal, 1984, 2000 people killed; Chernobyl; Aral Sea • Pollution • industry and transportation in cities • Climate change - sea-level rise, flooding, drought

8. Natural disasters • Can be as effective killers as war – or worse • Indian Ocean Tsunami in December 2004 killed 225,000 • Natural disasters 1995–2004 killed > 800,000 • Volcanic eruptions and meteor strikes even more deadly • Most natural disasters are (by definition) not man-made • But some may be exacerbated by man • UN High-Level Panel: dramatic increase in major disasters demonstrates how environmental degradation exacerbates the destructive potential of natural disasters • Climate change - sea-level rise, flooding, drought

9. Environmental factors in conflict: Five views • Neomalthusianism: Resource scarcity leads to conflict • Political ecology: It’s the distribution of resources! • Cornucopianism: There is no inherent resource scarcity • Institutionalism: Cooperation can overcome scarcity • Resource curse: Resource abundance is the problem

10. The Malthusian Model Population grows exponentially Food production grows linearly Positive checks (higher death rate): War, famine, and pestilence Negative checks (lower birth rate): Abortions, infanticide, birth control

11. The neo-Malthusian model Population pressure & high resource consumption Resource depletion Resource scarcity Resource competition Armed conflict

12. The Homer-Dixon Model • Demand-induced scarcity • (mainly driven by population growth) • Supply-induced scarcity • (mainly driven by depletion or degradation of a resource) • Structural scarcity • (mainly driven by resource distribution)

13. Some arguments for the scarcity thesis • Resource scarcity is the single most important issue in armed conflict – if you include territory • This is even more true after the end of the Cold War • Territorial disputes can be proxies for disputes about other scarce resources (minerals, energy sources, food, water, etc.) • Sharing a river seems to contribute to international conflict • Historical evidence of resource scarcity leading to internal fighting and even societal collapse • Ambiguous evidence from the present linking scarcity of water and land to internal conflict

14. Studies of effects of resource scarcity • Hauge & Ellingsen (1998): environmental degradation stimulates civil war - Theisen: but these findings cannot be replicated - State Failure Task Force (1998): environmental degradation does not stimulate state failure - de Soysa (2002): change variables do not measure degradation • Binningsbø et al. (2005): ecological footprint  peace * few robust findings for internal conflict * more robust findings for water and interstate conflict

15. Cornucopian objections • methodological • economic • political • demographic

16. Methodological objections • few systematic studies • many studies limited to countries in conflict • spurious factors – is poverty the key? • is resource scarcity a cause of conflict or an effect?

17. Economic objections • environmental Kuznets curve • resources can be substituted • technological innovation • market pricing

18. Air pollution – an environmental Kuznets curve? Income per person, 1985 PPP$ SO2 levels in 47 cities in 31 countries. Source: Lomborg (2001: 176), mainly based on World Bank data

19. The long-term decline in food prices World Bank, various sources (personal communication with Betty Dow, Commodities Information Analyst, Development Prospects Group, World Bank, 7 September 2006). The price is weighed by the Manufactures Unit Values Index and is given in constant 1990 USD, thus reflecting real prices. For the trend to reflect real food availability all markets have to be open (in order to make the price mechanisms work properly). If this caveat holds, there seems to be a marked decline in global food prices up to the mid 1980s when it stabilizes. The peak in 1974 is due to increased production costs (and perhaps increased hoarding) due to the 1973 oil crisis.[1]

20. Political objections • Democracy and environmental performance (or commit-ment) - Freedom of information - Pluralism - Pragmatism - International cooperation - Market orientation - Greater respect for human life • The democratic peace (internal, external) • Cooperation trumps conflict

21. Environmental cooperation • Law of the Sea • River authorities • Joint hydroelectric projects • Cooperation cuts across conflict boundaries • Webs of interdependence? • Towards an International Dike Authority for Low-Lying Areas?

22. Demographic objections • Population pressure may not always be harmful • Ester Boserup • Julian Simon • Limited impact of three forms of population pressure: • population density • population growth • youth bulges • Global population explosion has been called off

23. World population, 1950-2300 Source: World Population to 2300. ST/ESA/SER.A./236. New York: United Nations, Population Division, 2004, www.un.org/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf.

24. The resource curse Abundance of natural resources lead to • low economic growth • corruption • poor governance • resource capture and looting

25. Natural resources and civil war

26. Criticism of the resource curse literature • Share of natural resources exports to GDP does not reflect lootability • Results are not robust • Case selection, as in neo-malthusian stories • Nation-level data too rough

27. Diamonds and conflict I Source: Halvard Buhaug, Scott Gates & Päivi Lujala, 2003. ‘Lootable Natural Resources and the Duration of Armed Civil Conflict, 1946-2001’, paper presented at the 11th Norwegian National Meeting in Political Science, Trondheim, 8–10 January.

28. Diamanter og konflikter II Source: Elisabeth Gilmore, Päivi Lujala, Nils Petter Gleditsch & Jan Ketil Rød, 2005. 'Conflict Diamonds: A New Dataset', Conflict Management and Peace Science 22(3): 257–292.

29. Opium and coca cultivation since 1950 Source: Päivi Lujala, NTNU, unpublished.

30. Will the future be different from the past? • Are we eroding the earth's carrying capacity? • - neomalthusians and cornucopians disagree sharply • Many gloomy predictions in the past were wrong • - population, food, raw materials • Are changes now less reversible? • - biodiversity loss, soil erosion and deforestation less so • Is the best strategy to prevent or to alleviate? • - global warming

31. Some tentative conclusions • Cornucopians are justified in questioning the apocalyptic visions of global man-made collapse • - global warming a major uncertainty • Neomalthusians rightly point to local scarcity conflicts over land, water, etc. • - but these are low-level conflicts and tied to the quality of government and the level of development • The 'resource cursers' argue correctly that some conflicts are fueled by natural resource wealth • - but some of their generalizations are as hasty as those of the neomalthusians • Liberal policies provide our best general answer to threats to human security, including environmental • - promote democracy – by peaceful means!