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Planning Australia’s major cities:

Planning Australia’s major cities:. Creating an evidence base. Dorte Ekelund Executive Director Major Cities Unit Presentation to the NATSTATS 2010 Conference, Sydney 16 September 2010. Outline. Federal Government involvement in cities State of Australian Cities 2010

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Planning Australia’s major cities:

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  1. Planning Australia’s major cities: Creating an evidence base DorteEkelund Executive Director Major Cities Unit Presentation to the NATSTATS 2010 Conference, Sydney 16 September 2010

  2. Outline • Federal Government involvement in cities • State of Australian Cities 2010 • National urban policy • What do we need to know? • Defining urban • Indicators for effective urban policy and planning • What are we measuring? • Reliability and consistency • Causal versus correlated data

  3. 1950s • Housing • 1970s • Services • 1990s • Regeneration • 2007 + • Infrastructure Australia • Major Cities Unit • COAG Reform Transforming our Cities Pyrmont Bridge 2006

  4. A national objective for cities that they are: • Globally competitive • Productive • Sustainable • Liveable • Socially inclusive • National criteria for strategic planning systems • State governments to meet criteria by 2012 • Linked to federal infrastructure funding National planning criteria for cities

  5. Developing national urban policy

  6. State of Australian Cities 2010 • A national snapshot of Australia’s cities • An evidence base to: • generate debate • present challenges • highlight trends • measure progress • develop policy http://www/infrastructure.gov.au/mcu

  7. Defining ‘urban’ - What is a city?

  8. Australia: an ‘urban’ nation • 75 % population live in 17 major cities over 100,000 • 82% in cities over 30,000

  9. Spatial aggregation • Statistical v Local Government v Metropolitan v Conurbation • Cities within cities • Expanding urban boundaries • Peri-urban areas • Policy implications • Tracking change over time • Scale • Density • ‘Per capita’ indicators Where are city boundaries?

  10. Themes • Productivity • Sustainability • Liveability • What do we need to know? • Where are we now? • Where are we going? • What are we measuring? • Gaps • Overlaps • Interrelationships • Causes or correlations • Interpreting the data City indicators

  11. 2056 Population growth 2056 Sydney Melbourne Brisbane 2026 Perth 2026 Adelaide Hobart 2056 2006 Darwin 2056 2006 Canberra 2026 2026 2056 2006 2026 2006 2006 2056 2056 2056 2006 2006 2006 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) Population Projections 2006-2100. ABS cat 3220.0

  12. What are we measuring? • Multiple projections • ABS v Treasury IGR 3 v States v Agencies (eg. Health) • Policy sensitive projections • Components of growth • Projected v Planned v Targets • eg. Fertility v Immigration v Labour force • Spatial projections • Combining location and nature of growth Population projections

  13. Productivity Economic importance of cities • 76% of employment • 80% of economic activity (GDP) • 84% of economic growth (2003-2008) • Gateways to the global economy

  14. What are we measuring? • Isolating factors in the city system • Eg. Urban congestion • Dangers of extrapolating state data to cities • Eg. Queensland • Identifying contribution of cities to regional economic activity • Eg. mining and agriculture (research, distribution, administration, finance) Contribution of cities to productivity Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne Adelaide 0 60 100 GDP per Capita ($US ‘000) • SOAC 2010 p. 18

  15. Sustainability Total Greenhouse Contribution of Australian Transport Emissions for international transport, to and from Australia, are estimated using half of total fuel use. Base case projections Note: total warming effects - includes both directly radiative gases and indirectly radiative gases. Sources: BTRE (2006), BITRE (2009), BITRE estimates

  16. What are we measuring? Recent trends in car use • Measures of progress Source: Stanley, J. 2010 Moving People

  17. Liveability Housing diversity Houses are getting bigger... but households are getting smaller! Source: BITRE analysis of ABS 2007 Cat. No. 4130.0.55.001

  18. What are we measuring? Community wellbeing indicators • Need for indicators • Accessibility • Natural landscapes • Quality open space • Safety • Legibility • What’s important to whom? • Real • Perceived • Quality • Quantity

  19. Interpreting the data Indices • City indices • Issue- specific indices • SEIFA • VAMPIRE • Social inclusion • Resources + Participation • Choice • Opportunity • Capability • Brisbane 2006 Dodson and Sipe (2008) Unsettling the suburbs. Urban Research Program, Griffith University

  20. Limitations • Data gaps • especially about the contribution of cities to productivity, sustainability, liveability • Lack of comparability • Different scales • Different methodologies • Different purposes Conclusion

  21. Need a suite of indicators • Consistent geographies • Consistent time series data • More open data sources • Measures of progress not just of problems • Separating causes from correlations • Better appreciation of interrelationships between built environment and economic, social and environmental outcomes • Considering alternative futures Conclusion

  22. Complex systems “If you think you know all about a city, it’s probably just a town.” Peter Carey, 30 Days in Sydney. Pyrmont Bridge c1900

  23. Dynamic systems Thank you Pyrmont Bridge 2006

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