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Seasonal Predictors

2006-2007 Winter and Spring Forecast for New Mexico National Weather Service Albuquerque, New Mexico http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq. Seasonal Predictors. ENSO (El Ni ño and La Niña) Various Long-range models

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Seasonal Predictors

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  1. 2006-2007 Winter and Spring Forecast for New Mexico National Weather ServiceAlbuquerque, New Mexicohttp://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq

  2. Seasonal Predictors • ENSO (El Niño and La Niña) • Various Long-range models • Long-term oscillations (e.g. Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation) • Short-term oscillations (e.g. Madden-Julian Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation)

  3. Main Players for 2006-2007 • El Niño • Possibly the PDO • The unknown

  4. El Niño and Winter Precipitation

  5. El Niño and Spring Precipitation

  6. Sea Surface Temperatures associated with the PDO and ENSO

  7. Winter Precipitation And the PDO McCabe, Betancourt and Palecki (2004)

  8. With El Niño and Negative PDO • Winter precipitation is less than with El Niño and Positive PDO • Spring Precipitation tends to be above normal • Result is normal to above-normal winter-spring combination but delayed building of snow pack.

  9. So… • Good News - No La Niña. • Good News - El Niño! • Good News – It can’t get any worse than last winter. • Possible Bad News – PDO could remain negative…but probably wont.

  10. So… • Overall, temperatures during the winter-spring of 2006-2007 will be close to long-term normal and significantly cooler than 2005-2006. • Overall, winter-spring of 2006-2007 will be substantially wetter than 2005-2006. • Best chance for above-normal winter-spring precipitation is over southern New Mexico. • Fire Season 2007 should start later than in 2006.

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