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Analysis of Active Transportation and Demand Management Strategies

Analysis of Active Transportation and Demand Management Strategies. Workshop. Richard Dowling, Kittelson & Associates Richard Margiotta, Cambridge Systematics James Colyar & Chung Tran, Federal Highway Administration. Purpose of Workshop. To introduce:

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Analysis of Active Transportation and Demand Management Strategies

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  1. Analysis of Active Transportation and Demand Management Strategies Workshop • Richard Dowling, Kittelson & Associates • Richard Margiotta, Cambridge Systematics • James Colyar & Chung Tran, Federal Highway Administration

  2. Purpose of Workshop • To introduce: • The draft ATDM HCM Analysis Guide for analyzing investment strategies • Updated draft chapter 35 for the HCM. • Computational engines to assist ATDM analysis. • To illustrate application of ATDM analysis framework and the HCM to ATDM investment decision making.

  3. Agenda (morning) • 09:00 – Introductions, Purpose, Agenda • 09:15 – ATDM Overview • 10:00 – The ATDM Analysis Framework • 10:30 – Break • 10:45 – The ATDM Analysis Framework (cont) • 11:45 – Lunch (on your own)

  4. Agenda (afternoon) • 12:45 – Computational Engines • 1:45 – Example #0 – Before ATDM • 2:30 – Example #1 – HOV to HOT Convert • 3:00 – Break • 3:15 – Example #2 – Dynamic Metering • 3:45 – Example #3 - TDM • 4:15 – Wrap Up • 4:30 – Done

  5. Workshop Objectives • Inform you about new method to better account for the operational benefits of Active Transportation and Demand Management programs • Improve competitiveness of operational improvements for long range funding.

  6. Key Concepts for Today • Evaluating facility operations under a variety of demand, incident, weather, and work zone conditions • Creation of event scenarios • Evaluation of performance under each scenario. • Aggregation of results into meaningful performance measures.

  7. 1. Overview of ATDM

  8. Topics • ATDM Defined • FHWA ATDM Program Elements • How This Project (Capacity and Operational Analysis Methods) Fits In

  9. Active Management Active Management is the fundamental concept of taking a dynamic approach to a performance based process Active Management

  10. ATDM Definition ATDM is the dynamic management, control, and influence of travel demand, traffic demand, and travel flow of transportation facilities.

  11. The Balance between Static and Dynamic Static Dynamic E.g., static signs, fixed-time signal operations, time-of-day shoulder use) E.g., adaptive signal timings, congestion-triggered hard shoulder running, fully-variable speed limits)

  12. ATDM Can Be Applied Throughout the Trip Chain Destination choice Time of day choice Mode choice Route Choice Lane / facility Use/Choice

  13. Moving Towards Active Management

  14. ATDM Categories 14

  15. Active Demand Management: Dynamic Ridesharing Avego Real-time Ridesharing Demo http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P58Ug6JpdRU

  16. Active Traffic Management: VDOT I-66 VDOT: I-66 Active Traffic Management System in Northern Virginia: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-ZZKhaLRzI

  17. Active Parking Management: SF Park • SFPark: Know Where the Parking is Video: http://youtu.be/9JVepZcA-GI

  18. Evolution Towards Next Generation of Operations ATDM approaches help agencies to evolve towards the use of real-time decision support systems, predicted information, and have a focus on both supply and demand.

  19. Challenges and Barriers to ATDM • Institutional Capabilities • Benefits and Costs Unclear • Transferability • Limited Design and Planning Guidance • Data Needs • Modeling Investment • Limited Public Outreach, Communications, and Public Relations Examples

  20. FHWA ATDM Program Goal Enable agencies to improve trip reliability, safety, and throughput of the surface transportation systems by dynamically managing and controlling travel and traffic demand, and available capacity, based on prevailing and anticipated conditions, using one or a combination of real-time operational strategies.

  21. ATDM Program Objectives • Increase awareness and understanding of ATDM • Develop, test, and evaluate strategies • Provide tools and methods for performance analyses • Provide tools and methods for benefit/cost analyses • Train agencies to deploy effective ATDM systems • Provide guidance to FHWA Division Offices

  22. Research Tool Development And Guidance Outreach and Training ATDM Program Components Stakeholder Engagement Program Management http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/atdm/index.htm

  23. ATDM Analysis Guide Project Purpose • Develop improved methods to analyze the capacity and operations impacts of ATDM • Respond to need for “HCM-level” analysis • Provide basis for content for HCM Chapter 35 • Analysis framework + specifics where available • Leverage SHRP 2 L08 (Reliability in the HCM)

  24. Project Products and Vetting • FHWA Guide on Ops Analysis of ATDM • Updated Chapter 35 on ATDM for HCM • Computational engine (software) • Workshops to get feedback on methods • Workshops to teach the methods • Dallas, TX – April 9, 2013 • Seattle, WA – April 23, 2013 • Baltimore, MD – May 2, 2013 • Final Guidebook – June 2013 • HCQS Workshop HCM Chapter 35 – July 2013

  25. Future Efforts - FHWA or others • Respond to comments • HCQS Committee and others • Additional validation • Incorporate on-going related HCM research • E.g. Reliability, managed lanes, incident management • Software

  26. 3. ATDM Analysis Framework

  27. 3. ATDM Analysis Framework

  28. Purpose of ATDM Analysis • To evaluate the performance of a facility, with and without ATDM deployed, in terms of: • Productivity • Efficiency • Reliability

  29. ATDM Analysis is Not Traditional HCM Analysis • HCM • Static: ideal weather, fixed demand, non-incident conditions • Single analysis run • ATDM • Dynamic: variable demand, weather, incidents • Multiple analysis runs

  30. Why Are We Doing This? • Need to capture how a facility actually operates, accounting for periodic disruptions (incidents, weather, work zones) and variable demand • ATDM strategies primarily affect disruptions and variable demand, not capacity • Reliability estimation requires that we assess all the potential sources of congestion

  31. Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs) for ATDM • Traditional HCM freeway facility measures: • Number of vehicles served • Density • Average speed • Queue Length • Need to be expanded to account for reliability and sources of congestion • Note: “Measures of Effectiveness” and “Performance Measures” are terms that are used interchangeably

  32. MOEs for ATDM (cont.) • Congestion and Reliability • Useful to normalize travel time to the Travel Time Index: TTI =Actual Travel Time Ideal Travel Time • Delay is important because it can be monetized in benefit/cost studies

  33. Travel Time Reliability • Measured by how travel time of a trip (or facility) varies from one time period to another • In other words, reliability is measured as the variability of travel times • “How long will my trip take today compared to the same trip at the same time on any average day?” • The travel time distribution is used to describe reliability

  34. Effects of Demand, Incidents, and Weather

  35. Understanding Reliability Planning time index = 22.7 / 11.5 = 1.97 Buffer time = 22.7 – 15.9 = 6.8 min. Buffer time index = (22.7 – 15.9)/15.9 = 43% SR 520 Eastbound Seattle, 4-7pm weekdays

  36. I-75 NB, Atlanta, GeorgiaP.M. Peak Number of Trips Mean (10.7 minutes) 80th Percentile (13.3 minutes) Percent on-time@ 45 mph (14%) 95th Percentile (16.5 minutes) Planning Time Travel Time (Minutes)

  37. A Full Suite of Travel Time-Based Measures Is Used for ATDM • Vehicle-hours of delay • Maximum d/c ratio • Maximum queue length • Average speed • VMT demanded • VMT serviced

  38. ATDM Measures (cont.) • 95th %ile TTI (“Planning Time Index”) • 80th %ile TTI • Standard deviation • Semi-Standard Deviation • One-sided; deviations from free flow • “Reliability Rating” • % trips that are occur at a TTI = 1.33 or less • Misery Index (average of worse 5% TTIs)

  39. Why So Many Measures? • Reliability is complex – need multiple metrics to characterize the distribution • Different applications require different measures • Economic analysis of projects • Compatibility with field measurements (ongoing monitoring) • Will be important for MAP-21’s “Performance Management” requirements

  40. ATDM Evaluation: What Do We Need? • Analytical engine to estimate traffic impacts • We use FREEVAL, software built around HCM Chapter 10 (“Freeway Facilities”) • Other methods could be used (e.g., simulation)

  41. What Do We Need (cont.)? • Way to vary the inputs so that the full range of conditions is replicated • All possible combinations just too numerous to handle • Find 30 combinations (scenarios) of traffic level, incident characteristics, weather, and/or work zones that are of interest for our analysis

  42. ATDM Evaluation Approach Assess “Before” Performance Assess “After” Performance 1. Preparation (Data, Study Area) 5. Design ATDM Strategy 6. Convert ATDM Into Ops Inputs 2. Generate Scenarios 3. Apply Ops Tool to Scenarios 7. Apply Ops Tool to Scenarios 8. Compute MOE’s 4. Compute MOE’s

  43. Step 1 – Preparation • Define purpose and scope of ATDM analysis. • Assemble Data • Conventional HCM data for facility • Historic data on demand variability, weather, incidents, work zones.

  44. Scope of Analysis • Decisions: • Objectives of ATDM investments. • Thresholds of acceptable performance. • Temporal and spatial limits • Conventional + reliability reporting period (new) • Traffic operations analysis tool (HCM, microsim)

  45. Set Time and Space Limits Reliability Dimension Each cell is one analysis period of an analysis segment. Temporal Dimension Days of Year 18:00 Reliability Reporting Period Study Period 15:00 Spatial Dimension Study Section

  46. Step 2: Generate Scenarios • A Scenario is a set of Challenges to Facility Operation • A specified combination of: • Demand, Weather,Incident, and Work Zone • Specify their probabilities • P(scenario) = P(d) * P(w) * P(i) * P(wz) • Identify effects on demand, capacity, speed

  47. Identify Factors and Determine Probabilities

  48. Demand Variability • Need continuous counts from • Permanent traffic counters (ATRs) • ITS equipment • Develop the demand distribution for the analysis period (e.g. peak period) • Ideally for facility in question • Data from similar roadways • Systemwide defaults (see handout)

  49. I-95 SB, Pompano Beach, Florida4:00-6:00 p.m., Weekdays 50th Percentile 75th Percentile 25th Percentile 95th Percentile 5th Percentile Peak-Period Volume

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