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US Policy Options Towards Iran’s Nuclear Development

US Policy Options Towards Iran’s Nuclear Development. National Security Council Report December 8, 2005. Overview. History of Iran-US relations Overview of current Iranian nuclear development 4 scenarios The status quo option Recommendations. US-Iran Relations. Historical relations

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US Policy Options Towards Iran’s Nuclear Development

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  1. US Policy Options Towards Iran’s Nuclear Development National Security Council Report December 8, 2005

  2. Overview • History of Iran-US relations • Overview of current Iranian nuclear development • 4 scenarios • The status quo option • Recommendations

  3. US-Iran Relations • Historical relations • Before 1953 coup d’etat • 1953 coup d’etat • After 1979 hostage crisis • After Sept. 11 • Iran’s America problem • America’s Iran problem • Current developments

  4. Iran’s Nuclear Development • History of Iranian nuclear program • Uranium enrichment • Plutonium development • Assistance from other nations & organizations • Civilian or military? • EU-3 negotiations • Current American policy

  5. Nuclear Scenarios • 1. Status quo • Iran continues current policy, negotiations stall • 2. Iran carries out a nuclear test • 3. Intelligence indicates Iran transfers a nuclear device to a non state actor • 4. Iran demonstrates that its nuclear program is civilian in purpose only

  6. The Status Quo Option • Continuation of current process • Iran continues semi-cooperation with IAEA • EU negotiations continue to ebb and flow • United States continues to view Iran with skepticism

  7. Status Quo (continued) • Israel and Iran continue arms race • China, Russia, G77 continue to block Iran being referred to UN Security Council • “Dilemma of two clocks” • Russia and China continue balance-of-power negotiations and deals with Iran • Iran continues to meddle in Iraqi Shiite politics • Neighbors continue to oppose Iranian nuclear development

  8. Recommendations • Continued negotiations through the EU • Constructive engagement with Iran • “Grand bargain?” through 6 party talks • Regional security • WTO & trade • Iraq and Afghanistan agreement • Regional security guarantee

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