The role of rare metals as critical supply chain bottlenecks in priority energy technologies

1. The role of rare metals as critical supply chain bottlenecks in priority energy technologies A European Commission – JRC study

2. Background • Large scale deployment of low-carbon technologies is needed for meeting the European energy and climate policy targets for 2020 and beyond. The EU has adopted a Strategic Energy Technology Plan (SET-Plan) to develop and commercialise such technologies. • The JRC has identified that an insufficient rare metal supply is a potentially critical obstacle to large-scale low-carbon technology deployment. • Europe is 100% import dependent for many of these materials • Limited rare metal availability due to growing demand, limited global supplies and geopolitical competition over the control of resources might slow the deployment of low-carbon technologies. • The JRC commissioned a new study 2 months ago on rare metals as bottlenecks to energy technology deployment.

3. Study Outline “The role of rare metals as critical supply chain bottlenecks in priority energy technologies” • AIM • Identify rare metal requirements for the high-priority low-carbon technologies: wind, solar, bio-energy, CCS, nuclear and electricity grids • Examine the impact of rare metal supply and its disruption on the deployment of these technologies based on technology penetration scenarios • Explore possible strategies to prevent or mitigate the negative impacts of rare metal supply and its restrictions on the SET-Plan goals • TIME HORIZON: present to 2020-2030 • CONTRACTORS: Oakdene Hollins, The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, British National Metals Technology Centre • DURATION: Autumn 2009 – Spring 2010

4. Initial Results The study examined 60 elements and quantified the projected amount of material needed per technology in terms of kg per MW power generated.

5. Initial Results (cont’d) The projected material demand of each energy technology based on a number of technology penetration scenarios has been compared to the projected world supply for both 2020 and 2030. 13 critical materials have been identified based the ratio of demand to supply. A 14th element, Se, Selenium (0.7%), is also included, as depending on the technological scenario used, this could become highly significant to the PV industry. Te Tellurium (392.6%) In Indium (105.4%) Hf Hafnium (4.5%) Nd Neodymium V Vanadium Ga Gallium Dy Dysprosium Nb Niobium Cd Cadmium Ni Nickel Sn Tin Mo Molybdenum Ag Silver (1.6%)

6. The study will answer the following questions: Comprehensive analysis of critical rare metals In which countries are key resources located and what are the associated political risks? What are the processing routes for these metals? What are the competing applications for these metals? Policy implications Which metals are critical for the achievement of the SET-Plan targets? In which quantities will they be needed under different scenarios? How would supply shortages or political disruptions affect the realisation of the SET-Plan targets? Policy recommendations for mitigating potentialbottlenecks How can critical rare metals be substituted in some applications? Is there potential to increase European mine production? What role can reuse, recycling and waste reduction play? Expected Outcome

7. The results of the study will be disseminated in April 2010 For more information contact: Dr. Vangelis Tzimas European Commission - JRC Evangelos.tzimas@ec.europa.eu http://setis.ec.europa.eu