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Bayesian analysis at. work. troublesome examples. J. Charles, A. Hoecker, H. Lacker and F. Le Diberder. Outline. Setting the stage Frequentist analysis Bayesian analysis Simplified stage Concerns and Conclusion. Setting the Stage. B decays into π π final states. 6 observables And

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  1. Bayesian analysis at work troublesome examples J. Charles, A. Hoecker, H. LackerandF. Le Diberder

  2. Outline • Setting the stage • Frequentist analysis • Bayesian analysis • Simplified stage • Concerns and Conclusion

  3. Setting the Stage B decays into ππ final states 6 observables And 6 theoretical unknown 6 decay amplitudes are involved CP Violation α

  4. α

  5. Bayesian Analysis Data α • Theoretical parameters: • arerandomvariables • - following known PDF mind

  6. QuantumMechanics parameterization 6 decay amplitudes are involved Onephase may be set to zero Bayesian (I) frequentist

  7. Standard model parameterization The 6 amplitudes are split into two kind of contributions Trees & Penguins 10^9 Bayesian (II) amplitudes & phases … or real & Imaginary parts ? Bayesian (II) frequentist Bayesian (III)

  8. Changingdecay channel (ρρ) Bayesian (I) Bayesian (II) !?! Quantum Mechanics amplitudes & phases JHEP 0507:028,2005 frequentist (I)(II)(II) real & imaginary parts Bayesian (III)

  9. B → ππ Taking key experimental information away removing all experimental hints related toα amplitudes & phases Quantum Mechanics

  10. Conclusion … that attractive ? priors parameterization

  11. Spheres within a cube Simplified Stage 6 Dspace Bayesian treatment one knows nothing about the individual space componentsx,y,z… What do we known about the radius r =√(x^2+y^2+…) ?

  12. Concerns& Conclusion α CKM Should we ?

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