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Mark Barrow Strategic Director: Development Birmingham City Council

Mark Barrow Strategic Director: Development Birmingham City Council. Taking the Birmingham economy forward and supporting economic growth Part 1 - Global Scale !. Our position in a changing world ?. Population changes. Population Growth. 1750.

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Mark Barrow Strategic Director: Development Birmingham City Council

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  1. Mark BarrowStrategic Director: DevelopmentBirmingham City Council

  2. Taking the Birmingham economy forward and supporting economic growth Part 1 - Global Scale !

  3. Our position in a changing world ?

  4. Population changes Population Growth 1750

  5. Source: World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision: Medium Variant: United Nations

  6. Workforce comparison ! • The unit cost of 1 English worker = 20 Chinese = 18 Indian = 10 Latvian = 6 Polish • Size of manufacturing workforce • China = 115 m+ • G7 combined = 53 m • USA = 14 m • UK = 2.3m

  7. Economic growth projections

  8. Only 3.5% of UK exports go to China..?

  9. Breakdown of UK exports by value 80%+ of UK exports to low growth economies ?

  10. Excellent international relationships are critical… Example #1 - China

  11. The China market (1) • Worlds biggest car market: • Approx 18m new cars sold in China last year • China produces over a 1m cars a month. • Worlds largest mobile phone market: • over 950m + subscribers (20%) • highest internet usage, 500m+ users • Worlds 2nd largest luxury goods market: • China has overtaken the US to become 2nd after Japan.

  12. 17m. square foot Equivalent area of: Entire City centre office stock 12 Bullrings Linking Birmingham Science Park Yingkou City, Lioning, China Birmingham adding value in China…

  13. So what does all this mean for Birmingham and for UK plc ?

  14. First division economy ? Diminishing global influence ? Smaller defence force Maturing traditional consumer markets Ageing UK population The burden of the state Tax / pension / health burdens UK rank within the world economy 2005 = 4th 2010 = 7th 2015 = 11th 2020 = ? G7 - G8 - G20 What will our role and USP be ? Our future place in the world !

  15. How does all this….? • Shape how we support and help grow business • Inform how we educate tomorrows workforce • Affect how we up-skill today’s workforce • Influence transport planning & investment • Drive investment in digital infrastructure • Help us understand what investors may want • Affect our plans for investment and development • Guide our international civic leadership role • Point to opportunities for the people and businesses of Birmingham

  16. Taking the Birmingham economy forward and supporting economic growth Part 2 - Local Scale !

  17. Economic strength

  18. Economic output by broad sector

  19. Economic Performance Share of GVA by industry, 1996-2008 GVA per Head at Current Prices (1998-2008) Average annual change: 4.3% (Birmingham) Average growth p.a. (%) Gross Value Added (GVA) measures the contribution to the economy of each individual producer, industry or sector in the UK. • Local GVA is persistently higher than the regional average • Declines in the production segment has been replaced through growth in business services and public admin Source: Office of National Statistics

  20. Positive view from investment market

  21. Investment market by value of transactions

  22. Locating green automotive #1

  23. How are we going to stimulate economic development, create jobs and drive the social agenda ?

  24. 100,000 new jobs £8.25bn increase in GVA Key sectors: Advanced Manufacturing Business & Financial Services Clinical research & Med-tech Creative & Digital Low Carbon technology Research & Development Transport & Building Technologies Build a world class workforce LEP 2020 Ambitions

  25. Andy Street(Chairman) –Managing Director John LewisPartnership Nick Bunker – President Kraft Foods & Cadbury, UK & Eire Brian Francis– Managing Director Tallent Auto David Eastwood – Vice Chancellor University of Birmingham Paul Heaven– PrincipalBlue Sky Finance Steve Hollis– (Vice Chairman) KPMG MidlandsChairman Alan Volkearts – Ops Director, Jaguar Land Rover David Kaye– ex-National Express Wade Lynn– Managing Director Cleone Foods (Island Delights) Rob Brown – Group Managing Director Roger Bullivant Ltd Local Enterprise Partnership – Private Sector 2 million population9 Local Authority areas 125,000 students

  26. Enterprise Zone – Ver. 1.

  27. Checkpoint #1 Over the next 15 years across the LEP area… • Population will grow by 179,000 • Additional households 108,000 • Additional older people 84,000 • Additional (net) jobs needed 48,000 • Additional School places needed 36,695

  28. Birmingham population issues

  29. UK Immigration 43% Asia 35% Europe 22% Rest of World c.33% already UK citizens In 2010 the Net inflow was 245,000 ONS / IPS

  30. Birmingham population profile

  31. Birmingham Population 2026 ?

  32. Population Change Projections Forecast Population Change 2011 - 2026 Chart: Indexed Population Growth 2001 = 100 - White and Caribbean populations expected to decline - Very strong growth in Pakistani / Bangladeshi population; • Modest Growth in Indian population • Also strong growth (from a low base) in African, Chinese and ‘Other’ ethnic groups (not charted) Source: University of Manchester 33

  33. Skills issues

  34. Successful schools…

  35. Skills Vital – Competitive Job Market Yet Skills Deficit exists in Birmingham Chart: Working Age Population - % with No Formal Qualifications Source: ONS Annual Population Survey 37

  36. Skills Vital – Competitive Job Market Chart: 20-24 Year Olds Educated to degree level or higher (NVQ4+) Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

  37. Income

  38. Relatively low household income GDHI per Head at 2009 Prices (1996-2009) Average annual change: 3.4% (Birmingham) Gross disposable household income (GDHI) represents the amounts of money individuals have available to spend on goods and services, to save or invest. • Household income growing at a positive 3.4% p.a Source: Office of National Statistics

  39. Employment

  40. LEP Unemployment trend

  41. Employment by ethnicity16-64 yr population – males Highest Employment rates for the city are experienced by Indian males (73%) This is in contrast with the Pakistani / Bangladeshi male rate of 56%. White Male rate in Birmingham (71%) is still below the national figures for this group (76%). Source: Annual Population Survey Note: Pakistani category = Pakistani & Bangladeshi 43

  42. Employment by ethnicity16-64 yr population – females Female employment rates differ sharply by ethnic group. Especially in comparison to the male rates. The Indian female employment rate is below the average (as opposed to the male rate). Pakistani / Bangladeshi rate is very low – with just over a quarter of working age women in employment (27.9%) Source: Annual Population Survey Note: Pakistani category = Pakistani & Bangladeshi 44

  43. Predicted Population Change 2011-26 - Working Age 16-64 (000,s)

  44. Enterprise

  45. A city of entrepreneurs Gem Survey 2010 GEM Apps 2009 early stage entrepreneural ctivity

  46. Investing in Connectivity

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