Valentino Piana Budapest, 10th March 2010

1. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions and their relevance to SEE and Turkey Valentino Piana Budapest, 10th March 2010

2. The Economics Web Institute • Funded in 2001 • 2 Millions readers • Works quoted e.g. by World Bank, EU Parliament, Statistics Finland, US Bureau of Labor Statistics • Selected field of expertise • Macroeconomic advice • Industrial and regional economics • International trade and financial integration • Sustainable development • 30 economists from 15 countries have teamed up to elaborate “Innovative Economic Policies for Climate Change Mitigation”, which can be used as input for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

3. Contents 1. The Copenhagen Accord: the positive elements 2. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview 3. The advantages of adopting NAMAs in the region 4. NAMAs in national planning 5. The process of devising NAMAs and obtaining international support 6. An evaluation of the existing NAMAs 7. A MOSAIC strategy for NAMAs in SEE countries and Turkey 8. Next steps www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

4. 1. The Copenhagen Accord: the positive elements The Accord will test the effectiveness of an approach focused on immediate actions and verification of commitments, through alternative moves from all countries (bottom-up approach). It can fail and under-deliver but it is worth trying. In particular, CA is characterized by the following elements: 1. All major GHG emitting countries involved, generating specific pledges from 73 countries that together account for more than 80 per cent of global emissions from energy use 2. “Operational immediately” 3. 30 billion dollars committed by developed countries for the first three years (of which 2.4 billion euros committed by EU countries yearly 2010-2012) 4. A steep rising pathway of funding up to 100 US billions in 2020, where the sources will be studied by a High Level Panel (co-chairs and members already chosen) 5. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions by non-Annex I countries both unilateral and “seeking international support” in terms of technology, funding and capacity-building (art. 5) 6. Technology Mechanism selected, linked to NAMAs (art. 11) 7. Annex I Kyoto Protocol parties “further strengthen” their commitments (art. 4) www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

5. 2. Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs): an overview NAMAs are schematic texts submitted to UNFCCCC Secretariat by national focal points, to be collected in Appendix II of CA and in a special Registry (if looking for support). The 32 countries that have presented official NAMAs before 7th March 2010 have interpreted “Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions” in a wide range of ways: * carbon-neutrality declaration; * economy-wide commitments of reducing emissions in percentage with respect to a baseline of Business-as-Usual trajectory; * absolute reductions of CO2eq emissions; * sectoral preferential directions of development; * specific goals and actions; * localized projects with specified technical parametres. The geographical distribution of NAMAs is the following: Africa: 13 Asia: 12 Europe: 2 Latin America: 3 Oceania: 2 NAMAs have demonstrated to be sectoral (according to emission sectors or economic sectors) and cross-sectoral. In terms of sectors: forestry is mentioned in 22, renewable energies in 19, transport in 19, agriculture 14, waste 12, building 5. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

6. 3. The advantages of adopting NAMAs in the region By submitting well-crafted NAMAs, SEE non-Annex I countries can achieve the following goals: * be recognised as a pro-active partner of EU and an early mover in sustainable development and the fight to climate change; * obtain relevant and rising shares of the international funds for climate, including the forthcoming Copenhagen Green Climate Fund; * attract foreign private investments in clean energy, sustainable transportation, manufacturing, and agriculture, tourism and other sectors of national relevance; * nurture technological and organisational support for upgrading the national system of innovation (including Universities and research centres) as well as the manufacturing texture of firms; * foster a low-carbon-emission growth plan and climate-change-related socio-economic development interventions. Similarly, Turkey can build upon its National Climate Change Strategy and the forthcoming Action plans to expose unilateral actions and call for support. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

7. 4. NAMAs in national planning The EU 2020 Strategy, MEF/G8/G20, UNFCCC Low-emission development strategy (art.2 CA) Accession Process / Acquis Communautaire Climate Action Plans (BAP six pillars: Shared Vision, Mitigation, Adaptation, Technology, Finance, Capacity building), e.g. National Adaptation Strategy Local Adaptation Plans NAMAs NAPAs …. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

8. 5. The process of devising NAMAs and obtaining international support In the country International interface Abroad Analysis of existing and forthcoming laws and policies Existing funds Copenhagen Green Climate Fund Mitigation potential and international best practices Submission of NAMAs to UNFCCC Private investors Technology / Solution providers Economic mechanisms of activation Detail design of measures Research centres NGOs National stakeholders Matching mechanism, dynamics and events Local stakeholders Localisation and implementation www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

9. 6. An evaluation of the existing NAMAs Positive features Negative features • Wide variety • Usually reflecting the national circumstances, existing laws and policies • Fairly aware of international best practices • Many sectors mentioned (e.g. energy, transport, building, agriculture, forestry, tourism,…) • Concise documents • Better than CDM as for broader transformational potential • Not clear the kind and features of the international support looked for • No economic mechanism of activation • Not mobilizing the private investors • No legal guarantees for investors • No appeal to research centres and NGOs • Unexplored connection with the Technology Mechanism • Often lacking CO2 reduction quantification • Always lacking estimated costs, thus also the cost per avoided ton of CO2eq • Transformational effects (e.g. green jobs, competitiveness, tax revenue,...) not expressed www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

10. NAMAs adoption leader 7. A MOSAIC strategy for NAMAs in SEE countries and Turkey Solution provider Funder Skeptical Mobilizing www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting

11. 8. Next steps G8/G20 in Toronto - launch of the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund? High Level panel on finance - first meeting 29th March UNFCCC session in Sept/Oct ? G8/G20 in Korea (November) COP16 in Cancún (Mexico) UNFCCC session in April UNFCCC session in May-June Further NAMAs submissions, updated NAMAs communications, matching events Regional Environmental Centre capacity-building activities www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting