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Towards a homogeneous 50 year climatology of typhoons in SE Asia. Hans von Storch and Frauke Feser

Towards a homogeneous 50 year climatology of typhoons in SE Asia. Hans von Storch and Frauke Feser. Twelfth Pacific Congress on Marine Science and Technology, PACON 2006: Marine Science and Technology in Asia, Yangon, Myanmar, June 11-15, 2006. Downscaling approach.

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Towards a homogeneous 50 year climatology of typhoons in SE Asia. Hans von Storch and Frauke Feser

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  1. Towards a homogeneous 50 year climatology of typhoons in SE Asia. Hans von Storch and Frauke Feser Twelfth Pacific Congress on Marine Science and Technology, PACON 2006: Marine Science and Technology in Asia, Yangon, Myanmar, June 11-15, 2006

  2. Downscaling approach • Regional phenomena = mainly a result of interplay large-scale state and of regional dynamics. • Added value provided by regional atmospheric modeling when large scales are constrained (= spectral nudging; cf von Storch et al., 2000) • Successfully implemented for NE Atlantic climate. • Results in a homogeneous realistic description of past storminess (and, possibly of scenarios of futures) and marine wind impacts.

  3. Downscaling SE Asian marine weather • We now implement the dynamical downscaling approach for SE Asian marine weather. • The key question is if we will master the description of typhoons. • Presently: Case studies – formation of typhoons induced by large scale dynamics and NOT by initial values. • Similar study underway at GFDL (Tom Knutson) dealing with N Atlantic hurricanes • No “white” publications yet.

  4. A case study: • Simulating tropical storm Winnie (August 1997) • with a regional a climate model • Sensitivity to spectral nudging • Sensitivity to horizontal resolution • with regional atmospheric modelCLM; initiated at or close to1. August 1997.

  5. with spectral nudging 16.8.1997 Conventional RCM-simulations NCEP

  6. Effect of spectral nudging and different initial states Dates refer to time of initialization of simulation CLM run with 0.5º grid

  7. Effect of horizontal grid configuration: 0.5º; double nesting 0.5º→0.165º

  8. Effect of horizontal grid configuration: double nesting 0.5º→0.165º and direct 0.165º

  9. Core pressure development

  10. Max wind speed development

  11. Conclusions • (Some) typhoons can be described by regional atmospheric models run in the climate model. • Lateral boundary value control is insufficient to reconstruct number and track of typhoons • Higher resolution, obtained through double nesting, gives better results. • Results represented are preliminary. • We need better data for validation.

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