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Milk sector in Latvia : Future d evelopments. Rigonda Lerhe Deputy State Secretary Ministry of Agriculture Republic of Latvia. Global situation. Milk production, consumption and price 2020 EU export share in global market EU m ilk quota & abolition impact estimates.
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MilksectorinLatvia:Future developments Rigonda Lerhe Deputy State Secretary Ministry of Agriculture Republic of Latvia
Global situation • Milk production, consumption and price 2020 • EU export share in global market • EU milk quota & abolitionimpactestimates
World dairy estimates beyond 2015 Source: FAO • The expansion in demand will be driven by growing incomes, expanding populations, urbanisation and changing diets (mainly in developing countries) • Price & market volatility not taken into account, but will become more and more substantial over time • Global supply and demand will remain even – no overproduction & stock building
Main dairy exporters …and their share in world dairy trade
EU share in world dairy market Source: DG-Agri Expected increase in exports of dairy products not sufficient for raising world market share (milk powders, cheese)
Competition in SMP exports 2013 • USA taking advantage of reducing SMP exports from the EU in 2013
LV: - 3,6% EE: - 6,5% LT: - 21% Source: DG-Agri Milk quotas not reached in most of MS – quota abolition in 2015 unlikely to create heavy effect on the market & prices EU milk quota and milk production trends
Milk production and raw milk price projections for Baltic states Source: Eurostat, CSB, E&Y, 2013
Main indicators (milkrecording) • Numberofproducers: 5233 • Averageherdsize: 23,2 • Numberofcows: 124 800 • Yield per cow: 6,5 tons
Cows under recording in Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania and Poland, %
Different breeds under recording in Latvia (2012) 3 breeding organizations in dairy sector: - Animal Breeders Association of Latvia - Latvia Holstein breeders association - Co-op company of agricultural services “ABC Projekts”
Increase the proportion of mediumand large farms Source: The State Agency “Agricultural Data Centre”
Increasing the average herd size by 2 times(cowsunderrecording)would contribute to raising the share of medium and large farms Source: The State Agency “Agricultural Data Centre”
Average milk yield kg per cow (2011) Source: Eurostat
Increase output of biological milk Source: The State Agency “Agricultural Data Centre”
Farm level efficiency • Promote farm modernization • Increase the knowledge level about efficient farm management
Milk production costs EUR/ litre Source: FADN
Structure of costs in farm (2011)grouping according to economic size Source: MoA calculations
Improve milk quality By: •Promoting the use of milk quality database maintained by Agriculture Data center: - information on rolling geometric average of milk quality parameters •Increasing the level of knowledge of milkfarmersregarding milk quality issues •Increasing the average dairy herd size: - better opportunities to attract resources for modernization
Support to milk farmers (2012, mln EUR) • SAPS & CNDP formilkproducers got 41,1 mln EUR, including coupledsupportfordairysector 4,6 mln EUR, • Ruraldevelopmentprogrampayments27,4 mln EUR andinvestmentsfordairycattle 91,7 mln EUR Source: RSS * 2008 -March 2013
Cooperation of milk farmers Source: The State Agency “Agricultural Data Centre” 2013.* - dataon 01.09.2013.
The EU CAP «Milk package» in Latvia • «Arrangementsforrecognitionandsupervisionofmilkandmilkproductsproducerorganisations» (05.02.2013, nationalregulation): • Mandatorywrittencontracts: inforceundermilkquotasystemalreadybetweenproducerand first purchaser. Otherstagesofmilkchainexempted
Share of dairy industry inthestructureof food production Source: Central statistical bureau
Increase volumes of milk procesed and reduce raw milk exports Source: RSS, AgricultureDataCentre, MoAcalculations
Milk purchasing in Baltic states Source: AgricultureDataCentre, CSB, MoAcalculations
Increase share of the largest dairy processors in total domestic processing 15% 85% 85% Totalnumberofprocessors - 32 Source: AgricultureDataCentre, MoAcalculations
Increase production of higher value added products 19% 19% 19% Source: CSB, LatvianDairyCommittee Production of dairy products in Latvia, % and thsd.t
Increase exports to eastern destinations mln EUR and % Source: EUROSTAT
Trade balance of Latvian dairy sector Source: Eurostat The EU isthedestinationfor 80% of LV dairyexportsandtheoriginfor 99% LV dairy imports
Investment support for dairy industry under the rural development policy2007-2013 RDP investment support • Public funding: 21,1 mlnEUR (28.7% of the total public funding) • Total attracted investment: 40,7 mln EUR • Companies supported:21
School milk in Latvia 2012/2013: • ~4% (3245 tons) of drinking milk volumes marketed by LV dairies (in 2012) • Main product: plain milk (99,9%) • 59 % (834) of schools & pre-schools/ 65% (181 thsd) of pupils • National top-up: Plain milk to pre-schools and 1st-9th grade of school • Total budget: 2,1 mln EUR Schoolmilk
Dairy promotion programme implemented in Latvia Productpromotion Source: RSS by CSB
Thank you for your attention! Rigonda Lerhe Ministry of Agriculture E-mail: rigonda.lerhe@zm.gov.lv Zemkopības ministrijaZemkopības ministrija Zemkopības ministrija 38 38