Climate Change – International Context Oxfam New Zealand Pacific Forum Side Event 7 Sept, 2011

1. Climate Change – International Context Oxfam New Zealand Pacific Forum Side Event 7 Sept, 2011

2. Climate Change – International Context UNFCCC – Durban expectations - Legal form - Mitigation - Finance: governance and sources UNFCCC - National elements Climate Finance - Bunkers

3. State of play - legal form • LCA and KP track • KP expires 31 Dec 2012 • Likely, KP next phase will be ‘transitional’, one or more years, • Likely KP rules preserved and docked into long term framework • Commitments and actions all Parties, (by 2015) while respecting CBDR

4. State of play for mitigation • Developed country mitigation • IPCC called for25-40% by 2020, from 1990 levels, legally binding targets. • Bottom up offers, from 1990 levels: • Norway: 40% • EU: 30% if others do • NZ: 10-20% with conditions • US: stabilisation to -3% • Total Annex 1: 11-18% • Oxfam: 40% below 1990, majority ofeffort through domestic action • AOSIS: 45%

5. State of play for mitigation • Developing country mitigation • 15-30% below business-as-usual by 2020. No targets, but actions, supported by finance and technology from developed countries. • Key issues: • Nature of ‘nationally appropriate mitigation actions’ • Monitoring, reporting and verification • Carbon markets • Public finance for mitigation support • Deforestation • Responsibilities of China and others • Oxfam: mitigation actions for developing countries, • supported by finance and technology

6. Expected mitigation pledges show minimum 4Gt gap to <2ºC trajectory (450ppm) Low end of pledged ranges High end of pledged ranges

7. Durban expectations for mitigation Move to top end of current pledges Agree scale of gigatonne gap & assessed effort sharing to close gap Close loopholes Agree rules eg. MRV, ICA Developing Country design NAMAs Agree rules for Registry Anticipate AR5 due Oct 2014

8. Durban expectations for finance Green Climate Fund – appoint Board 2013-2020 finance trajectory to US$100bn/yr Scaled up govt budgetary assessed contributions for developed countries Plus sources: FTT, Bunkers, SDR MRV

9. What is likely at Durban? Scenarios - multilateral, stumbles along, breakdown Legal form - next phase will be ‘transitional’, one or more years, KP rule preserved and docked into long term framework Mitigation - need for market certainty, push to get as much certainty on mitigation Finance - design Global Green Fund, resistance to talk about sources (bunkers) Friends of Fossil Fuel Reforms

10. UNFCCC – Developing country national level Mitigation - submit NAMAs to registry Submit NAPs Finance – design national/regional governance Advocate for adaptation and sources eg bunkers REDD Ensure gender representation

11. What are bunkers?

12. Bunkers • Most promising source, new, predictable • Growing emissions 2.7% global • Multilateral market based mechanism • Bunker fuel levy, developing countries compensated, • US$10bn to GCF • At Durban, urge IMO to design, provide principles on no net incidence to developing countries and GHG savings to be achieved

13. www.oxfam.org.nz