Powerdown

1. Powerdown By: Richard Heinberg Albert Lin Anisa Hays Nate Jordan Zack Bunkers

2. Richard Heinberg • Professor at New College in California • Focuses on Ecological Issues, including Oil Depletion

3. A Recent History of Oil Discovery and Production • Of 44 significant oil-producing nations, 24 are clearly past peak production • German Parliament advisors Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler wrote in 2002 that “The peak of oil discovery was in the 1960’s… This peak in discoveries has to be followed by a peak in production since we can only produce what has been found before. The production peak of individual fields is a historical fact, [and] almost all large oil fields have already passed their production maximum and are in decline.” • Russia, the world’s 2nd largest exporter of oil, won’t be able to grow their industry after 2007.

4. No Signs of Slowing • “To meet projected demand in 2015, the industry will have to add about 100 million oil-equivalent barrels a day of new production. That’s equal to about 80 percent of today’s production level. In other words, by 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to 8 out of every 10 barrels being produced today. In addition the cost associated with providing this additional oil and gas is expected to be considerably more than what industry is now spending”. -Jon Thompson, exploration division president of ExxonMobil.

5. A Recent History of Natural Gas Discovery and Production • Natural Gas represents 24% of total energy used in US • ½ of American homes are heated with Natural Gas • The price in 2000 was $2 per thousand cubic feet • The price in 2004 was $8 per thousand cubic feet • North America has passed peak production • In 2002, the US imported 15% of it’s natural gas from Canada. • That same year, Mexico stopped exporting its natural gas to the US and started importing it from the US

6. What is being done? • A plan for a global gas infrastructure has been proposed by world leaders. It would function in the same way that oil is currently imported and exported. • Unfortunately, a global gas infrastructure would no sooner be completed than the global peak of natural gas production would have passed.

7. Our Energy • Fossil Fuels = Inheritance • Other Energy = Wage Earnings

8. Alternative Energies? • No alternative fuel can sustain our current growing energy needs • All human activities require energy • Energy is the capacity to do work • Less available energy = less work can be done • Efforts must be made to create more efficient economic processes

9. Consequences • Food Production is Put at Risk • Large farming operations are nearly impossible without oil and natural gas • Current farming techniques and machinery rely almost entirely on fossil fuels • Petroleum based fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides will no longer be cost effective

10. Problem • The world is facing an impending energy famine that will lead to a Power Down or a Powerdown • Power Down- A forced shutting down of society as we know it due to an energy famine • Powerdown- A deliberate reformation of society to address and avoid the oncoming energy famine

11. How did this problem arise? • An energy famine is a result of the fact that there are limited resources in the world. • Due to the unsustainable consumption of these resources, we are now facing an energy famine.

12. Will our society fail? • When societies begin expanding with no effective limits to growth, they come to face either a maintenance crisis or a depletion crisis. • A maintenance crisis occurs when production falls short of maintenance needs. • A depletion crisis occurs when resources essential for production are depleted.

13. What societies have failed? • The Roman Empire failed due to both a maintenance crisis as well as a depletion crisis. • The Mayan Empire fell due to a depletion crisis.

14. What happens when a civilization falls? • A civilization’s increased food production will spark population growth, which calls for greater food production, resulting in a vicious cycle. • Geographically limited societies will collapse relatively quickly from environmental damage while those that aren’t limited can survive for decades or even centuries after the beginning of a crisis.

15. Reactions for the Global Civilization • Last Man Standing • The path of competition for remaining resources • Waiting for a Magic Elixir • The path of wishful thinking, false hopes and denial • Powerdown • The path of cooperation, conservation and sharing • Lifeboats • The path of community solidarity and preservation

16. What are we currently doing? • We are currently taking the path of Last Man Standing, which has been the status quo. • Nations are competing for resources in order to be the most developed nations. • America is the only remaining superpower, and we have taken measures to maintain it.

17. Last Man Standing • Organisms naturally compete for control of resources • Humans have developed lethal weaponry, leading to an inability to surrender, which forces the elimination of competition.

18. Last Man Standing Types of Competition • Participants • Powerful consumers v. Weak resource holders • Civil War • Consumer v. Consumer • Terrorists • Effects • Fight to steal resources • Fight to control resources • Fight for highest bidder • Fight against civilians

19. Last Man Standing • The idea of a free market is a failed attempt to eliminate lethal competition. • Why would you fight for resources when you can buy them?

20. Last Man Standing • In the last eight years, we have seen a failure of the Free-Market idea in our “War on Terrorism.” • Iraq didn’t have WMD’s, it had valuable resources, which we wanted to control.

21. Last Man Standing • What resources did we want from Iraq? • We wanted to control the oil that Iraq has in order to improve our fiscal standing, which would contribute to our world power.

22. Take Home Lesson • Human nature calls for violent control of resources, which neither civilization nor the world could survive.

23. How can we change our course? • We can voluntarily dramatically reduce our energy consumption so that we can avoid an actual famine. • We can squeeze our eyes shut, cover our ears, spin around a few times and hope that nothing bad happens.

24. Powerdown • Values Debate: “comparison of values that we have and values that we need to have” Moralistic vs. Ethical (Framework) (Framework)

25. Powerdown • Restructure Way of Thinking: “in order to save ourselves we do not need to evolve new organs; we just need to change our way of thinking”

26. Powerdown • Sustaining Human Society: • Reduce Economic Activity • Change in Political System • Reduce the Scale of Effective Political Power • Reduce the Population Levels

27. Lesson “ A peaceful global powerdown is possible only if America leads the way. If current American Domestic and Foreign policies continue, powerdown efforts on the part of the nations will result in improved survival options for the people of those nations, but the world as a whole by far the most likely outcome will be devastating resource wars continuing until the resources themselves are exhausted, the human species is extinct, or the fabric of modern societies has been shredded to the point that anarchy-in the worst possible sense- prevails nearly everywhere.”

28. Magic Elixir • The proposed solutions to all of our energy problems • All we have to do is just… (insert new sources here) • Only provides partial answers to the energy famine

29. Magic Elixir • Hydrocarbon Sources • Most commonly suggested solutions • Tar Sands Oil Reserves • Methane Hydrates • Hydrogen

30. Tar Sands • Extraction • Processing • Prohibitive Costs

31. Methane Hydrates • Extraction • Dangers

32. Hydrogen • Politically Popular • Environmental Concerns • Problems of Efficiency

33. “Perfect Energy” • The Promise of New Energy • The Finite World vs. The Growth Machine • Liebig’s Law • Lack of one necessity will undermine an organism’s ability to survive

34. Take Home Lesson • The most commonly proposed solutions to our energy famine are not viable options.

35. What if our civilization fails us? • We can build lifeboats, in order to save the necessary aspects of our culture.

36. Building Lifeboats • Initially, we would be concerned about personal and family survival. • A slightly better response would be to work towards community survival. • Both are problematic in that they will facilitate competition between either individuals or communities.

37. Saving what is best • We should seek to do better than survive, and should plan for cultural survival. • This can be done through cultural preservation centers that serve as libraries, universities, and research stations. • Most important to conserve the moral lesson behind industrial society’s collapse: we must keep our population below the ecosystem’s long-term carrying capacity by keeping resource consumption within the regenerative capacity of the ecosystem.

38. Take Home Lesson • We should not only plan for community survival, but cultural survival through the use of cultural preservation centers.

39. Lessons • Last Man Standing • Human nature calls for violent control of resources, which neither civilization nor the world could survive. • Powerdown • America must lead the way to a powerdown, even though it will be costly on a global scale • Magic Elixir • The most commonly proposed solutions to our energy famine are not viable options. • Building Lifeboats • We should not only plan for community survival, but cultural survival through the use of cultural preservation centers.

40. What does Heinberg say we should do? • Heinberg argues that we should pursue a policy of building lifeboats and a voluntary powerdown.

41. Questions?