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Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report. Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada. Outline. Current Operational Status: Satellite Reception Facilities Telecoms and Computers Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage

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Gilles Verner Meteorological Service of Canada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

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  1. Meteorological Service of Canada Status Report Gilles Verner Meteorological Service ofCanada Dorval, Québec, Canada.

  2. Outline • Current Operational Status: • Satellite Reception Facilities • Telecoms and Computers • Operational NWP System at CMC and Data Usage • MSC Observing Networks and Canadian AMDAR • Recent changes to NWP System and impact • Recent and Future Developments: • New Global model • Incorporation of additional observations in assimilation • Longer term changes to NWP system

  3. MSC Direct Satellite Reception GOES HRPT DOMSAT EARS Tromso - Eumetsat Resolute Dartmouth HRPT site may be moving to Gander Gilmore Creek, Alaska Edmonton Vancouver Dartmouth Winnipeg CMC (3) Ottawa Readiness For METOP This Fall Toronto Wallops, Virginia

  4. Telecommunications • GTS link CMC - NWS: upgraded from 64 kbps to T1 during 2003 • Link UKMO-CMC still active (Meteosat - GOES - GTS back-up, MTSAT?) • Eumetsat - CMC link for EARS • Internet still used for access to Nesdis data • Funding for dedicated link (T1+) with Nesdis approved, should be implemented soon as operational link, once new Nesdis site is operational

  5. CMC Operational Models • 4D-Var assimilation on model η levels (T108), but 3D-Var for regional • Background errors stats from 24-48 method • Observations QC with BG check and QC-VAR • Single GEM model (global, regional, meso) Global Model Regional Model • Uniform grid • Resolution of .9º (~100 km) • 28 eta levels, lid at 10 hPa • Kuo convection scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • Force-restore surface module • with climatogical soil moisture • 10 day forecasts at 00Z • and 6 day forecasts at 12Z. • Cut-off of T+3h10 • Variable resolution grid • Resolution of .1375º (~15 km) • 58 eta levels • Kain-Fritsch scheme • Sundqvist stratiform scheme • ISBA surface module with • soil moisture pseudo-analysis • (error feedback, no data) • 48-hour forecasts (00Z -12Z) • Cut-off of T+1h35

  6. CMC Operational Models (cont.) Mesoscale model Global EPS • EnKF assimilation cycle with • 96 members, GEM at 1.2º • Resolution of ~150 km (1.2º • for GEM and T149 for SEF) • Forecasts with 16 members • Multi model approach with • different physics options • 16 day forecasts at 00Z and 12Z • Cooperation with NCEP for • NAEFS • GEM-LAM at 2.5 km, L58 • Non-hydrostatic • No convection parameterization • Explicit condensation (Kong-Yau) • ISBA surface module • No assimilation cycle • (started from 12hr GEM-15 + BC) • 24 hour forecasts at 12Z • 2 windows (SRN BC, Windsor- • Québec corridor), more later

  7. Regional model 575 X 641 grid (66% in 15-km uniform area), 58 levels

  8. Currently two GEM 2.5 domains

  9. OBS T + 1h40 6-h regional first guess 48h regional fst 3D-Var Analysis Data assimilation cycles at CMC 00 UTC 06 UTC 12 UTC 18 UTC 00 UTC OBS OBS T + 1h40 T + 5h30 6-h regional first guess 6-h regional first guess 3D-Var Analysis 3D-Var Analysis OBS OBS OBS OBS OBS T + 9h T + 6h T + 6h T + 9h T + 9h 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 6-h global first guess 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis OBS OBS OBS T + 3h T + 3h T + 3h 4D-Var Analysis 240h global fst 4D-Var Analysis 4D-Var Analysis 144h global fst OBS T + 5h30 6-h regional first guess 3D-Var Analysis

  10. Observations assimilated at the CMC Type Variables Thinning radiosonde/dropsonde U, V, T, (T-Td), ps 28 levels Surface report T, (T-Td), ps, (U, V over water) 1 report / 6h Aircraft (BUFR, AIREP, AMDAR, ADS) U, V, T 1o x 1o x 50 hPa per time step Ocean Land AMSU-A 3-10 6-10 AMSU-B / MHS 2-5 3-4 ATOVS NOAA 15-16-17-18, AQUA 250 km x 250 km per time step Water vapor channel GOES 11-12 IM3 (6.7 m) 2o x 2o 3-hourly AMV (Meteosat 5-8, GOES 11-12, MTSAT-1R) U,V (IR, WV, VI channels) 1.5o x 1.5o 11 layers, per time step MODIS polar winds (Aqua, Terra) U,V ~180 km boxes 11 layers, per time step Profiler (NOAA Network) U,V (750 m) Vertical hourly

  11. +47% +107% +199% +0% +0% +494% +76% Average amount of data assimilated per day • Overall ~ 800 000 data assimilated per day with 4D-Var • 60% increase over 3D-Var.

  12. Some ADS data now collected in Northern Canada Availability of aircraft data • ADS data collected by NavCanada: UANT01 CWAO (on GTS since July 05)

  13. Canadian AMDAR coverage

  14. TT data quality – JAZZ CRJ and DHC-8 CRJ Aircraft data OK. For DHC-8 Aircraft, significant difference in bias between ascent / descent data. Related to smoothing algorithm in avionics.

  15. Ozone/UV Monitoring Networks Brewer: UVA/B and total column ozone at 9 sites. Data in NRT in local ascii format. Ozone soundings now done once weekly at 10 sites. Data on GTS in CREX, 2-3 days after measurement. Both are Research networks. Some discussions for better operations, including data transmission and formats.

  16. ALRT EURK TUKT SACH RESO INVK KIQI HOLM WHIT YELL NAIN BAKE KUUJ SCH2 WILL CHUR FLIN STJO BAIE ELIZ BCOV WSLR FRDN NTKA NANO VALD PRD S WINN CHWK PICL PTAL PGC5 ALBH ROSS ALGO UCLU HLFX DRAO NRC1 PARY PWEL KNGS A potential Canadian ground-based GPS network Raw GPS data received for ~30 sites from NRCan and IGS via FTP and processed in-house to ZTD (since Summer 2005) Sfc Met at 19 sites Hourly network (GAMIT) and Point Positioning (PPP) solutions are made available in NRT (J. Aparicio) Potential of ~ 127 sites CACS/RT: Canada-Wide Real-Time(GPS*C Service) CACS/PGR: Post-Glacial Rebound CACS/ATS: Arctic Tracking Stations CACS/GLP: Great Lakes Partnership (Sfc Met, CSA/MSC) CACS/WCDA: Western Canada Deformation Array not processed processed by NOAA/FSL Not shown: regional (provincial) networks, Canadian Coast Guard sites = Radiosonde-GPS collocations (7)

  17. CSA Chinook mission • The CSA decided in early 2004 to make SWIFT the primary instrument for their second SciSat mission • The CSA selects GPS instrument as secondary payload with SWIFT and creates the Chinook Mission March 2005 • SWIFT and partner experiment ARGO are just about to start mission phase B/C contract/studies for projected launch in Nov 2010, 3 year mission • Unclear at this stage if data will be available in real-time, work and funding needed for this.

  18. Changes to CMC NWP System since last meeting Minor changes : • AMV’s from MTSAT-1R : July 2005 (replacing GOES-P) • Blacklisting of DHC-8 AMDAR : Oct 2005 • Blacklisting amsu-a ch 6 from NOAA-15 : Oct 2005 • Blacklisting amsu-b ch a from NOAA-15 : Jan 2006 • GOES-10 to GOES-11: AMV’s and radiances : July 2006 Assimilation of satellite data, December 7, 2005, in Global + Regional systems • AMSU-A and MHS on NOAA-18 • BUFR Winds for Meteosat-8 (replacing Meteosat-7) Major changes to EPS on December 13, 2005 • Forecast twice a day to day 16 • Inclusion of MODIS winds and AMSUA on AQUA • Improvements to EnKF algorithm (model error) • EnKF – 2x48 members replaced by 4x24 (better stats) • In forecast models, use of ISBA for ½ of members

  19. New Sat data GEM-15 4D-Var Recent NWP verification

  20. Recent & future developments • 2006 : • Now : new version of global model for Medium-range forecasting system & 4D-Var analysis changes • Fall : Update to Regional model for Short-Range Forecasting system (vertical resolution and new statistics) • Begin transition to new IBM • 2007 : • Spring : More observations, global and regional • METOP amsu-a & mhs, AIRS, SSMI & SSMI/S, COSMIC-CHAMP-GRACE, 3 hourly sfc obs, QuikSCAT, update to AMV’s. • Revised bgck & obs error statistics. • Higher vertical resolution from soundings and aircraft data • Off-line biais correction for radiance data. • Summer : 6-hourly regional cycle and FGAT • 2008+ : • Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa • More obs … • GEM-LAM with Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM

  21. Main Features of the New Model Version (Stéphane Bélair, MRD) • Increased horizontal and vertical resolution • 800x600x58L (33 km) compared to 400x200x28L (100 km) • Numerical poles at geographic locations (non-rotated) • Representation of clouds and precipitation • Shallow convection with Kuo Transient • Deep convection with Kain-Fritsch (vs Kuo) • Modified Sundqvist scheme for grid-scale condensation • Bougeault-Lacarrère for the turbulent mixing length (vs Blackadar) • Constant thermodynamic roughness length over water in the Tropics (vs Charnock everywhere) • ISBA land surface scheme with sequential assimilation of soil moisture (based on OI) (vs Force-Restore)

  22. Other Changes to the 4D-Var Analysis (Stéphane Laroche, MRD)

  23. Environment Canada Horizontal Grid Opérationnel Global-méso 400X200 -> 100 km 800X600 -> 33 km at 45o N CPOP – 11 April 2006

  24. Global-méso 10hPa 58 eta levels DZ (km) Vertical Levels Opérationnel 10hPa 28 eta levels DZ (km)

  25. Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW Contours: (mm/day) 0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 >20 JAN 2002 GPCP OPE

  26. Global Evaluation of Precipitation NEW Contours: (mm/day) 0-1 1-5 5-10 10-20 >20 JUL 2002 GPCP OPE

  27. Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 WINTER new ope SSMI-13

  28. Global Evaluation of Clouds with SSM/I new ope SSMI-13 SUMMER new ope SSMI-13

  29. Pre-implementation testing • Evaluation was done on 2 periods of two months each: • Summer 2004: 15 july @ 15 sept. 2004 • Winter 2005: 15 dec 2004 @ 15 feb 2005 • Also running is parallel mode since June 2006 • Operational implementation by end October 06

  30. Environment Canada Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Northern Hem.) Summer Winter

  31. Environment Canada Objective Evaluation Against Analyses Anomaly Correlations (Southern Hem.) Summer Winter

  32. Precipitation over North America (day 3) Summer Winter

  33. Environment Canada Systematic Evaluation of Hurricanes and Typhoons over 14 cases (3-day runs) (Anne-Marie Leduc, CMC) Central pressure (hPa) Position (km)

  34. Spring 2007 : more observations & revised statistics • AIRS & SSMI radiances • 3 hourly sfc data • Off-line biais correction for radiances data • Revised background & observation error statistics • More low level AMV’s • SSMI/S radiances • QuikSCAT • Metop ATOVS: amsu-a & mhs • COSMIC-CHAMP-GRACE refractivity

  35. AIRS radiance assimilation • 100 channels selected from 281 set • Use center pixel of 3 X 3 array (warmest now available and to be used) • Eliminate channels sensitive to ozone, peaking above model top at 10hPa, redundant surface channels, complex Jacobian shapes, with large RTM errors Identify channels insensitive to clouds. Main criteria: • Cloud height and emissivity from CO2 slicing. Local dtau/dp must be negligible up to 50hpa above cloud. • Background check (+/- 3 s)

  36. AIRS assimilation Short global cycle with current operational model (0,9o) February 2004

  37. SSMI assimilation :Experiment Description • Periods: July 1-31, 2003 ; January 1-31, 2004 • Control: 3D-Var, Global 0.9o model, direct assim. of GOES-W, and NOAA15,16,17* AMSU-A & AMSU-B Tbs, plus conventional obs • Experiment 1: addition of SSM/I Tbs over oceans in clear skies • Experiment 8: addition of SSM/I Tbs & removal of AMSU-A CH3, & reject AMSU-B CH2, 3, 4, 5 over oceans where CH2 |O-B|  5K (*AMSU-A data unavailable for January 2004)

  38. Mean Integrated Water Vapour (kg m-2):AMSRE – ANALYSIS July 2003 January 2004

  39. Future development • 2008+ : • Raise global model lid to 0,1 hPa • More obs : • High level peaking channels from AIRS & ATOVS • IASI, GRAS, ASCAT on METOP • Hourly sfc pressure data • More GEO radiances (METEOSAT, MTSAT …) • GOES-SA: AMV’s and radiances • AQ data • GEM-LAM Continental/Local 4D-Var LAM

  40. Thank you

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