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Jobs Study of the Institute for Postal Studies

Jobs Study of the Institute for Postal Studies. Spring 2004 Robert Reisner Transformation Strategy. How Did We Get Here Today?. Institute for Postal Studies (ISP) investment in postal reform research Request by Congressional Staff in March 2004 for Analysis of Jobs Impact

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Jobs Study of the Institute for Postal Studies

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  1. Jobs Study of the Institute for Postal Studies Spring 2004 Robert Reisner Transformation Strategy

  2. How Did We Get Here Today? • Institute for Postal Studies (ISP) investment in postal reform research • Request by Congressional Staff in March 2004 for Analysis of Jobs Impact • Transformation Strategy and SLS Consulting • USPS Senior Management wanted to share this application of the Mailing Industry Task Force (MITF) and ISP Work

  3. Implications of Gridlock • Nine Years of Debate over Postal Reform • Debate over Retirement/CSRS • What will impact on prices and competition be? • Volume decline? Congress USPS If volume declines, how far behind will job loss follow?

  4. President’s Commission View:The StakesFirst Class Decline/Standard Growth Billions pcs 2002 2007 2012 2017

  5. The Commission’s ForecastAppears Outdated 6 Months Later The High Point If you lose mail is it gone forever? Continuous Decline

  6. The Purpose of the Study • Concern with Future Volume • Where are the jobs? • Impact on Jobs

  7. MITF’s 9 Million Jobs

  8. Specifying Where the Jobs AreUnderstand the Impact of Volume Decline Census Data, Update to 108th Cong. MITF Estimate Update and Build Database Data from USPS MITF, DMA Jobs Elasticities Some industries Will be more sensitive than others To potential future volume declines

  9. Jobs Impacts & USPS Reform • Impacts will not be 1 to 1. But a 20% decline will affect 1.5 million jobs • Impacts vary widely District to District – Even replacement of jobs creates winners and losers • Over time technology may realign the economy • Impacts will cause economic dislocation, especial if they are rapid • 9 times as many jobs are in the private sector

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