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PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL

This report analyzes international monetary policy, credit availability, and exchange rates, providing forecasts from key sources like the Federal Reserve and Bank of England. It covers money markets, housing market trends, labor statistics, investment intentions, GDP forecasts, costs and prices analysis, and labor market dynamics. The conclusion offers an inflation forecast, historical analysis, and policy recommendations.

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PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL

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  1. PATE’S GRAMMAR SCHOOL MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE

  2. Policy Recommendation

  3. MONEY MARKETS International monetary policy, credit availability and the exchange rate

  4. International Monetary Policy Source: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  5. Exchange Rate Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast Depreciation until EU referendum has passed

  6. Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Money Supply Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  7. Housing Market Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  8. House Prices and Consumption Source: ONS

  9. Summary of Money Markets

  10. DOMESTIC DEMAND Consumption, investment and government spending

  11. Average Weekly Earnings Source: LMS Labour Market Statistics, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  12. Source: Resolution Foundation NLW Gains Across Distribution

  13. Consumer Confidence Source: GfK, Pate’s Consumer Survey

  14. Savings Ratio Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  15. Consumption Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  16. Investment Intentions Source: BCC, CBI, Pate’s Business Survey

  17. Investment Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast Source: Bank of England, own forecasts Investment to accelerate after political uncertainty of the EU referendum has passed Time

  18. Government Spending Source: OBR, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  19. Summary of Domestic Demand

  20. EXTERNAL DEMAND Imports, exports and the balance of payments

  21. Growth and Inflation in Trading Partners Source: ONS, IMF, own calculations

  22. Net Trade Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  23. Summary of External Demand

  24. GDP Forecast Source: ONS, own forecasts

  25. COSTS AND PRICES Oil prices, commodity prices and core inflation

  26. Oil Prices Source: IMF, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  27. Commodity Prices Source: IMF, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  28. Core Inflation Source: Trading Economics, own forecast Key: Past data Forecast

  29. Summary of Costs and Prices

  30. LABOUR MARKETS Unemployment, productivity and the output gap

  31. Unemployment Source: ONS, OECD, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  32. Productivity Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  33. Statistical Investigation of Inflation Expectations

  34. Employee Compensation Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast

  35. Unit Labour Costs Source: ONS, own forecasts Key: Past data Forecast Feb forecast Nov forecast

  36. Output Gap Source: HM Treasury, own forecast Our current output gap estimate = - 0.1% Average estimate = - 0.3%

  37. Summary of Labour Markets

  38. CONCLUDING REMARKS Our inflation forecast, historical analysis and policy recommendation

  39. Overall Summary

  40. Inflation Forecast Source: ONS, own forecast

  41. Source: Bank Underground, own estimates Estimate of Wicksellian Rate of Interest using COMPASS Key: Past data Estimate

  42. Japan in 2000 Source: Bank of Japan (日本銀行)

  43. Sweden in 2011 Source: SverigesRiksbank

  44. Policy Recommendation

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