Trends and Forecasts 2011 Up to the year 2030

1. Trends and Forecasts 2011Up to the year 2030 russell.schmieder@scb.se Forecast Institute Statistics Sweden

2. Education and Labour market projection to 2030 The purpose of the forecast and how it is used The model Findings for 2011 f Trender och Prognoser 2011 • f http://www.scb.se/Pages/Product____9938.aspx With summary in English!

6. How Trends and Forecasts is spread • Printedbook • Access to data ifrequested • ’Forecast Day’ at SCB • Special analysis • Regional adaptations for municipalities (2012)

7. How Trends and Forecasts is used • Used by the Swedish government in the budget process. • Used as background information in discussions on increasing or decreasing the number educational places • Used by Ministries of Education and Finance, the Agency for Higher Education, members of Parliament, universities, other higher education institutions, and the Swedish Public Employment Agency.

8. How Trends and Forecasts is used • Agency for Higher Education uses a version of ToPin discussions with higher education institutions • information helps the institutions decide enrollment levels, new faculty to recruit, new programs, old ones to expand or close. • Also helps study advisors at the institutions give concrete information to students so they can make better decisions about a career and education.

9. Trends and Forecasts also used in other political decision making • inform and update Sweden’s political leadership on the current and future state of the educational system • Example: the Ministry of Education recently used Trends and Forecasts as background support for a recommendation to increase the financing of adult education in the wake of the financial collapse

10. Purpose of the calculations • is to focus on the imbalance between supply and demand for educated in the future • is not to predict the future, but try to influence it

11. Characteristics of the calculations • Consequence calculations • No adjustment mechanisms in the calculations • Calculations show 'gaps' between future supply and demand. A large gap implies need for action from policy makers

12. Secondary ’All' continue to upper secondary school The distribution between study programmes unchanged Unchanged proportion complete their studies Post Secondary The number of beginners is set as the same as 2009/10, both totally and by education Graduation rate unchanged by sex and education Central assumptions for calculations of supply

13. Central assumptions for calculations of demand • Employment by economic activity is based on an branch forecast model developed with Caimbridge Econometrics • Changes in the occupation structure is based on the development 2005-2009 • Compared to today, a stronger bond between occupation and education is assumed.

14. Basics for calculations SUPPLY DEMAND Education level Education Education Population and of the population A A forecast of number 2010 gainfully employed B B Forecast over C C Economic study completion development D D . . Migration Industy sector forecast . . Deaths Occupation forecast etc. etc. Rate of employment Skills needed - 102 Educationgroups - 48 industry branches - 144 occupationcategories - - Ages 16 - 74 - Forecast up to 2030 - The Models

15. Modeling supply 1. Population 2010 - education (X) 2. SurvivalProbability 3. Population 2010, projected to 2011 - education 2011 (+) 4. Graduates 2010 - education 2010 Reiterating 5. Graduates 2010 former procedure (-) education - education 2009 (+) 6. Migration - education 2010 7. Population 2011 - education 2011 (X) 8. Participation rates by education 9. Workforce 2011 - education 2011

16. 1. Population and employment forecast 2. Economic development according To economicbranchforecast 2012 - 3. Demand for labour by industry 4. Assumptions on occupational structure by industry 5. Demand for labour by industry and occupation 6. Assumptions on educational structure by occupation 7. Demand for labour by occupation and education 8. Demand for labour by education Modeling demand

17. Gainfully employed 1985-2030, age 16-74 Forecast and zero option from 2007, thousands Thousands Forecast Zero option Outcome Forecast

18. Level of Education by sexage 20-64, 1990-2030 Thousands Post Sec. Secondary Compulsory 1990 Female Male 2011 FemaleMale 2030 Female Male

19. Thousands 2 500 Demand Gymnasial utbildning • Supply 2 000 Förvärvsarbetande Eftergymnasial utb. 1990-2010 examen 1 500 1 000 Förgymnasial utb. Supply 500 Demand Forecast 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Supply and demand for labour 1990-2030By educational level Thousands Demand Secondary Supply GAINFULLY EMPLOYED 1990-2006 Post secondary Post Secondary Supply Demand Compulsory Post secondary, without completion FORECAST 2007-2030

20. By industry Increased empl.: Public services Private services Construction Decreased empl.: Agriculture and forestry Industry By occupation Increased empl.: Health Engineering Economists Construction Decreased empl.: Services, without educational requirements Industrial trades Future developments within industry and occupation

21. Supply and demand 2030 by field of education General studies Pedagogic and teacher training Humanities and arts Social sciences, business and law Science, math and computing Technology and manufacturing Agriculture and forestry Health and welfare Services Demand Supply Thousands

22. 2011 Trends and Forecasts Conclusions We need more: • Healthcare • Engineering and technical/industrial educated (Secondary) • Teaching with orientation towards young children We need fewer: • Humanities and arts • Business (Post-Secondary educated) • General education • Teaching with orientation towards older children