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Scenario Planning: U.S. Experience

CIVITAS Open Academy Ljubljana 15 April 2010 Eric N. Schreffler, Transport Consultant San Diego, California USA. Scenario Planning: U.S. Experience. Overview. What is Scenario Planning (U.S. context) Example: Envision Missoula Performance Measures Travel Demand Modeling.

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Scenario Planning: U.S. Experience

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  1. CIVITAS Open AcademyLjubljana15 April 2010Eric N. Schreffler, Transport ConsultantSan Diego, California USA Scenario Planning: U.S. Experience

  2. Overview What is Scenario Planning (U.S. context) Example: Envision Missoula Performance Measures Travel Demand Modeling Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  3. WHAT ARE SCENARIO PLANNING AND VISIONING? The basics Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  4. U.S. DEFINITION: Scenario Planning “Scenario planning is a process in which transportation professionals and citizens work together to analyze and shape the long-term future of their communities. Using a variety of tools and techniques, participants assess trends in key factors such as transportation, land use, demographics, health, etc. Participants bring the factors together in alternative future scenarios, each of these reflecting different trend assumptions and tradeoff preferences.” Federal Highway Administration definition Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  5. VISIONING Scenario planning complements and follows community visioning Community visioning helps experts project future growth, economy, funding More importantly, it establishes important community values that define livability Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  6. Scenarios Typically, scenarios include alternative growth futures and alternative investment or funding strategies Differs from alternatives analysis, which assumes one static future Scenario planning provides a framework for developing a shared vision for the future It does this by analyzing various forces that affect growth and testing various future alternatives that meet area needs Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  7. Scenarios • Common assessment of forces that influence growth, including: • Mobility • Economy • Health • Land use • Environment • Common assessment of factors that influence available funding • Development of transportation strategies to meet future scenarios, including consideration of trade-offs Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  8. Inclusive Planning • Successful plans come from early involvement of a variety of stakeholders: • The public (as residents, voters and travelers) • Politicians (local elected officials) • Government administrators • Special interest groups (e.g. bicycle advocates) • Private business, including land developers • Transportation providers (e.g., public transport) Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  9. Six Steps of Scenario Planning • Define driving forces of change • Determine patterns of interaction • Create scenarios • Analyze implications • Evaluate scenarios • Monitor indicators Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  10. Benefits of Scenario Planning Provides an analytical framework and process for understanding complex issues. Facilitates consensus building by giving communities the capacity to participate actively in the planning process. Includes tools and techniques to assess the impact of transportation and other public policy choices on a community. Allows an opportunity to recognize the impact of trade-offs among competing goals. Yields an enhanced decision-making framework by bringing together many viewpoints. Helps to improve management of increasingly limited resources. Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  11. “ If you don t know where you re going, you’ll probably end up somewhere else. “ Yogi Berra New York Yankees Why Develop Scenarios? Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  12. ENVISION MISSOULA U.S. Example Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  13. Envision Missoula Scenarios Missoula, Montana (population 100,000) Scenario Planning Used to Update Long-range Transportation Plan Three Scenarios Developed: Business as Usual (no vision) Suburban Satellites (multi-centers) Focus Inward (city center) Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  14. Role of Scenarios According to plan, scenarios were: “not intended to represent project lists for the plan, but rather to suggest problem-solving approaches for how Missoula can address its transportation challenges in the long term.” Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  15. Visioning Exercise • Used “chips” and “tapes” • Chips represented desired land uses • Tapes represented transport modes • Different classes of roads • Public transport services • Bicycle and pedestrian paths Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  16. Envision Missoula Analysis Modeling and analysis used to show how different strategies for managing travel demand while investing in targeted infrastructure can support future system performance. Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  17. Outcome of Focus Inward Scenario Single In-Town Mobility District with one priority corridor (rather than many multimodal corridors) Increase density in city core Priority to bicycles and bike access to public transport Multimodal center in city center ITS improvements giving priority to pedestrians Electric circulator buses Commuter rail focused on city center destination One-way street couplets Preferential parking and commuter shuttles Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  18. GOING BEYOND CONGESTION AND TRAVEL TIME Performance MEASURES Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  19. Multi-modal Performance Measures Policy Objectives Congestion Mobility Accessibility Sustainability Livability Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  20. Multi-modal Performance Measures Examples • Travel time reliability (managing congestion) • VHT – Vehicle Hours of Travel (congested conditions) • VKT reduction (effectiveness of non-auto modes) • Person Throughput – travelers per mile, all modes • Average speed across corridor by all modes (mobility) • Multi-modal Level of Service (bus and bike) • User satisfaction with travel modes Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  21. Envision Missoula Indicators Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  22. THE END Thank You! Eric N. Schreffler estc@san.rr.com www.estc-tdm.com Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  23. SOME CONSIDERATIONS AND CAUTIONS Using travel demand models Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  24. Why Do We Use Travel Models? To project travel demand into the future in order to plan for future To assess where that travel might occur To project car and public transport use To assess unmet needs To justify large infrastructure investments Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  25. Four Step Travel Demand Model Starts with land use analysis to project population and employment Step 1 – Trip Generation – frequency of O & D by trip purpose Step 2 – Trip Distribution – spatial distribution of travel by zone Step 3 – Mode Choice – matches modes to personal attributes Step 4 – Route Assignment – distributes travel to roads Often used in Benefit/Cost Analysis and Environmental Impact Studies to evaluate projects Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  26. Activity-based Models Unit of travel is journey rather than trip Microsimulation framework is used to track journeys of each individual in the study area Stop frequency and locations are modeled Non-motorized analyzed as a separate mode Multimodal assignment is conducted Very data intensive Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  27. Criticism of Traditional Modeling Focus on car and public transport, not bike/walk Reduces evaluation to time and cost factors Cannot handle mobility management strategies Presumes we can project 20 years out (or more) Based on population forecasts, which are inaccurate Revealed preference presumes past behavior continues Used as “black box” with aura of wizardry Can be misused to justify desired projects Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  28. Issue: Lack of Validation Validation is comparing forecasted (a priori) impacts to actual results (ex post) For nine out of ten railway projects the study found that passenger forecasts were overestimated, with an average overestimate of 106%, For half of all road projects, including bridges and tunnels, the study found that the difference between actual and forecast traffic was more than 20%, while for 25% of road projects the difference was more than 40%. Flyvbjerg, Holm, and Buhl (January 2006) Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  29. Forecasting vs. Results “Evaluation” can imply both prediction of outcomes based on modeling AND measurement of actual results based on monitoring Very important to set objectives and then evaluate programs, projects and policies to gauge fulfillment of or progress toward objectives This is at the heart of “objective-driven, performance-based planning” Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  30. Appropriate Use of Models Modeling is only one tool in planning process Modeled forecasts should be used to compare scenarios on a relative, not absolute basis Off-model tools, such as TDM models and meta-simulation tools can improve projections Limitations and uncertainty inherent in modeling should be acknowledged Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

  31. THE END Thank You! Eric N. Schreffler estc@san.rr.com www.estc-tdm.com Scenario Planning – Ljubljana Workshop

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