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THE REGIONS, THE CRISIS, GOVERNANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN POLICIES

This report provides an overview of the global economic situation and analyzes the impact of the crisis on EU regions. It examines the diverse regional profiles and highlights the need for effective governance and future policy measures.

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THE REGIONS, THE CRISIS, GOVERNANCE AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN POLICIES

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  1. THE REGIONS, THE CRISIS, GOVERNANCEAND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN POLICIES CPMR Policital Bureau, Odessa, June 12th 2009

  2. SUMMARY • 1. Overview of global economic situation • 2. Impact of the crisis on EU Regions • Survey • Policy Workshop and Manifesto • 3. Regional policy • Barca report • Preparing Göteborg General Assembly

  3. 1. OVERVIEW OF GLOBAL ECONOMIC SITUATION • Based on forecasts from EU DG ECOFIN, International Monetary Fund, OECD, World Bank • Based on main available indicators: GDP, employment, wages, investments

  4. THE EU IN THE WORLD: LOSING MOMENTUM  GDP growth: 2009 as a black year for most advanced economies + Russia and Brazil Asian economies to continue growing even though at lower speed

  5. THE EU IN THE WORLD: LOSING MOMENTUM  GDP/head horizon 2014: EU and Japan losing track of the US, China accelerating convergence during the crisis

  6. THE EU IN THE WORLD: LOSING MOMENTUM  Share of world GDP: the US and EU losing momentum, China and India catching up

  7. WITHIN THE EU: VERY DIVERSE PICTURES • Only 1 EU country with positive GDP growth in 2009 (CY) • 14 countries will remain in recession in 2010 (grey zones)

  8. WITHIN THE EU: VERY DIVERSE PICTURES • Only 4 EU countries with a GDP/head higher in 2010 than in 2008 (CY, PL, SK, EL) • In LU and IE, each citizen will have 4.000 to 5.000 US$ in his pocket

  9. WITHIN THE EU: VERY DIVERSE PICTURES • Unemployment raising in all EU countries • Unemployment rate above 10% in 12 EU countries in 2010, above 20% in Spain

  10. WITHIN THE EU: VERY DIVERSE PICTURES • The Lisbon strategy 70% employment target missed after having been achieved in 2006 • Back to the 2000 situation…

  11. WITHIN THE EU: VERY DIVERSE PICTURES • Real wages growth slowing down in most EU countries • Consecutive decrease in real wages in 2009/2010 in 4 countries (LT, EE, IE, LV)

  12. UNCERTAIN OUTLOOK FOR 2010 AND BEYOND • Worsening forecasts for 2010 (GDP, employment and investments)

  13. VARIOUS PERCEPTIONS OF THE SITUATION • Citizens feeling concerned for mid-term perspectives(Source: Eurobarometer jan/feb 09)

  14. VARIOUS PERCEPTIONS OF THE SITUATION • Markets comforted by G20 decisions and national recovery plans (Eurostoxx 50)

  15. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • CPMR Regions participating in the survey

  16. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • Diverse regional profiles • Difficulties to get quantitative data > Qualitative answers

  17. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • Most Regions medium or strongly impacted • Some Regions expect the crisis to unfold only in the coming months • Export-oriented and mono-sector Regions as well as declining industrial districts first and strongly hit • Differenciated impacts within Regions according to economic specificities

  18. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS

  19. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • Few sectors left unaffected but a same economic sector can be very differently impacted according to the Region in which it is set

  20. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • Unemployment to severely affect the majority of surveyed regions (17), however the social outwards signs of the crisis are numerous...

  21. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • A broad range of regional responses raising the key question of governance

  22. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • According to competences and budgets, +/- formal measures packages (7 adopted a formal recovery plan) including • Budgetary / Fiscal measures • Support to public investment (short and long term) • Support to businesses / SMEs (access to credit with guarantee funds or preferential loan schemes) • Support to labour market (passive and active employment policies) • Social interventions • Regulatory measures • Reduction of administrative burden for businesses • Improve efficiency in public spending • Advisory measures and services • For the business community • For citizens • Governance measures • Strengthening existing partnerships • Creating new partnerships / ad hoc mechanisms

  23. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • Different approaches towards the use of Strucutral Funds in sustaining recovery

  24. 2. IMPACT OF THE CRISIS ON EU REGIONS • CPMR initiatives • CPMR Policy Workshop, 16th July, Brussels • Manifesto: 10 signing Regions, 2 asking for amendments • CPMR Seminar « Impact of the crisis on post 2013 EU policies: what the regions expect », Marseille, 27th November 2009 • Going on surveying regional situations?

  25. 3. IMPACT ON THE DEBATE ON REGIONAL POLICY POST 2013 • On the one hand… • Low Structural Funds consumption rates (7% in average) used as argument by opposants to Objective 2 • The crisis will have unpredictible impacts on GDP levels 2010/2011: which basis for regional policy envelopes calculation? • The « Barca » report proposes DG Regio embarrased with the « Barca » report: a CPMR Contribution?

  26. 3. IMPACT ON THE DEBATE ON REGIONAL POLICY POST 2013 • On the other hand… • DG Regio embarrased with the « Barca » report supporting a modernized cohesion policy for all EU Regions • …but still shows no clear vision / ideas for the future • CPMR preparing its proposals for the Gothenburg AGM

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