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Economic Update

This economic update highlights the underwhelming U.S. GDP growth and the decline in high-growth startups, while also discussing regional headwinds affecting the economy.

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Economic Update

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  1. Economic Update Grant D. Forsyth, Ph.D. Chief Economist Grant.Forsyth@avistacorp.com

  2. U.S. GDP Growth Fails to Thrill, but No Hyperinflation Source: Various and author’s calculations.

  3. Weekly Dollar Exchange Rate Index, 2012-2015 (2012=100): The Dollar Keeps Climbing External QE Source: U.S. Federal Reserve and author’s calculations.

  4. Monthly U.S. Industrial Production, 2012-2015 (2012=100): Showing Some Weakness Source: U.S. Federal Reserve.

  5. Monthly U.S. Industrial Production, 2012-2015 (2012=100): Showing Some Weakness Source: U.S. Federal Reserve.

  6. Monthly U.S. Industrial Production, 2012-2015 (2012=100): Showing Some Weakness Source: U.S. Federal Reserve.

  7. Still Unhappy: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Partisan Conflict Index, 1981-2015 “The Great Snit” Source: Fed Bank of Philadelphia.

  8. A Long, Slow Employment Recovery Source: BLS and author’s calculations.

  9. Regional Population Growth, 2013-2015 Source: U.S. Census, WA OFM, and author’s calculations.

  10. Spokane+Kootenai Residential Units Permitted: A Good Year for Housing +700

  11. Firm Formation is Weak: Spokane+Kootenai Establishments, 1998-2013 2001-07: 4.7% pa 2.3 2001-07: 2.5% pa 1.8 2007-13: -1% pa “The majority of all business establishments in the U.S. are non-employers, yet these firms average less than 4 percent of all sales and receipts nationally.” U.S. Census Source: U.S. Census and author’s calculations.

  12. A Long-Run Problem? “The pattern for the U.S. used to be that in any given year, most newly entered firms would fail while a few would grow very fast. These high-growth young firms yielded substantial skewness in the firm growth rate distribution. Now the U.S. has a much lower pace of startups, and those that do enter are less likely to be high-growth firms. Thus, startups and high-growth young firms contributed less to U.S. job creation in the post-2000 period than in prior periods.” WHERE HAS ALL THE SKEWNESS GONE? THE DECLINE IN HIGH-GROWTH (YOUNG) FIRMS IN THE U.S. Ryan A. Decker John Haltiwanger Ron S. Jarmin Javier Miranda, NBER, 2015 Job Growth 0

  13. Regional Headwinds to Consider • Fairchild uncertainty. • El Nino, water, and fire. • Falling commodity prices. • Weak growth in Canada and China and a strong dollar.

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