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Analysis of measured and modeled PM10 concentrations in the Rijnmond a large industrialized area in the Netherlands. Hans Erbrink and Henk Spoelstra, Materials, Environment & Chemistry KEMA Presented at the Dustconf Congress, April 23- 24, Maastricht, Netherlands. KEMA in 2007.
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Analysis of measured and modeled PM10 concentrations in the Rijnmond a large industrialized area in the Netherlands Hans Erbrink and Henk Spoelstra, Materials, Environment & Chemistry KEMA Presented at the Dustconf Congress, April 23- 24, Maastricht, Netherlands
KEMA in 2007 • Established in 1927 (80th anniversary!) • Annual Revenues US$ 200 Million • Over 1500 Professionals • Over 450 Clients in more than 70 Countries, 5
KEMA’s activities • Consultancy • Testing • R&D • Services from KEMA Emissions management group vary from R&D, measurements, modeling, certification and verification (for emissions trade scheme)
The problem • PM10 concentrations in NL are close to limit values • The harbor of Rotterdam needs to be extended (plus 1000 ha of business area) • How to comply with EU directives? • How big are contributions of local sources? • What are the causes of high PM10 levels Knowledge of the Pm10 concentrationsis needed
Our approach • Make an inventory of local emissions (DCMR-data) • Use back ground concentrations from the National Monitoring network (RIVM) • Perform model calculations with KEMA STACKS • Analyse measured data of PM10; look for correlations with other parameters. • Draw conclusions
Measurements and projections • Data are available from Dutch governmental organizations, e,g, from the Dutch Institute of Environment and Public Health (RIVM); projections show “red zones”….
Local emissions quantifications • Total emissions for PM10 in the Rijnmond area are roughly 2200 tons/a, distributed over several sectors:
Modelling point sources: STACKS=Dutch Nat. Model Features: Hour-by-hour modellingAdvanced meteo-modelGaussian model includes NO2 formationdeposition (wet+dry) • Emissions of: • point sources • area sources • road traffic • ships
STACKS: Basics • In principle: simple • 4 parameters: and all concentrations are determined • Surprising good in comparison with measurements
STACKS: Basics measurements Standard meteo Sigma-y turbulence Sigma-z Mixing height (Zi) Plume height L, u* roughness Inversion penetration Wind profile Temp-profile Wind speed Plume height Empirical input
Semented Semented lijnbron Line source model model Uur hour - - by voor - - uur hour Calculation of Berekenen Invoer input van pm10/ pm10 / NO2 NOx Canyon Canyon data gegevens concentrations concentraties model model NNM NNM Puntbron stationary / diffuse sources bronnen GCN’s GCN’s ( ( Back ground achtergrond ) ) STACKS+: several submodels High waysships streets Conc. Industry, others Back ground
Conclusions from model results • PM10: dominated by background • Large point sources: very small contribution • Bulk storages (significant contribution; with adequate measures: small contribution) • Traffic: (road, ships); on a local scale significant (NO2) or small (pm10) contributions • Contributions of local sources is the same on days with PM10>50 ug/m3 and other days.
What causes the high pm10 conc? • No strong correlations with wind, clouds, prep etc • High concentrations: 2/3 clustered in episodes (4-14 days) • At all locations: exceedings • Large scale effect
What causes the high pm10 conc? Grosswetterlagen!German for large scale circulation type
GWL and pm10 conc GWL for each dayin 2003 Yellow: PM10 > 50 ug/m3
GWL and pm10 conc GWL for each dayin 2004 Yellow: PM10 > 50 ug/m3
What causes the high pm10 conc? • High pressure systems in Europe* no precipitation* capping inversion (500-1500 m)* several days: accumulation • Local contributions are small • Measures on a local scale have limited effect • To reduce PM10 levels, measures om a European and (addional) national scale are needed. • (to reduce NO2 levels, local measures are much more helpful)
Analysis of measured and modeled PM10 concentrations in the Rijnmond a large industrialized area in the Netherlands Thanks for your attention