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China – Southasia FTA Additional Impacts WTO China’s WTP Accession

China – Southasia FTA Additional Impacts WTO China’s WTP Accession. Abe &Toku Japan. Objectives / Purpose. Free Trade Agreement between China/Taiwan vs. Southeast Asia Timing: 2010-2015 Assess the expected impacts on Textiles and apparels Other manufacturing Aggregate GDP and welfare

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China – Southasia FTA Additional Impacts WTO China’s WTP Accession

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  1. China – Southasia FTAAdditional ImpactsWTO China’s WTP Accession Abe &Toku Japan

  2. Objectives / Purpose • Free Trade Agreement between China/Taiwan vs. Southeast Asia • Timing: 2010-2015 • Assess the expected impacts on • Textiles and apparels • Other manufacturing • Aggregate GDP and welfare • Directions of capital flows

  3. Base Closure and Shocks • Closure:qcgds(asia) and qgdp, exogenous • Uruguay Round Tariff cuts:1995-2005 shock tms (TRAD_COMM….) • ATC Quotas:2005-2010 shock txs (textiles, “CHN_TWN”…)

  4. Policy Closure and Schocks • Closure:qcgds and qgdp endogenous • Policy Schock:2010-2015 • Reduction of tariffs in CHN/TWN against SEA Ashock tms (“5 industries”) • Reduction of tariffs in SEA against CHN/TWN Ashock tms (“5 industries”)

  5. GDP: Cumulative diff.

  6. Textiles Production Southeast Asia China/TWN

  7. Impacts on Sector ProductionCumulative Diff.China / TWN

  8. Impacts on Sector ProductionCumulative Diff.SEA

  9. EV to CountriesCumulative diff.

  10. Capital Flow from and toCHN_TWN and SEA

  11. Conclusions • FTA will bring about benefits to both regions, in terms of real GDP and EV. • Textiles will expand in SEA, partially off- setting the reduction from ATC. • The FTA benefits on EV will come from TOT in CHN/TWN, and CNalleffr in SEA. • FTA will further increase the benefits of capital inflows for both regions.

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