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MMAB plans for FY2010. Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov. Overview. OVERVIEW Implementation plans (AOP). Ice SST Waves Ocean Projects Site specific WAVEWATCH III TM . HFIP. Collaborations NOS
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MMAB plans for FY2010 Hendrik L. Tolman Chief, Marine Modeling and Analysis Branch NOAA / NWS / NCEP / EMC Hendrik.Tolman@NOAA.gov
Overview • OVERVIEW • Implementation plans (AOP). • Ice • SST • Waves • Ocean • Projects • Site specific WAVEWATCH III TM. • HFIP. • Collaborations • NOS • Circulation models (Great Lakes, GMex) • ADCIRC, linking to wave model. • NOPP • Waves • HYCOM
Implementation plan • SST • 2009 accomplishments: • removed arctic SST biases related to ice masks. • Implemented ad-hoc solutions for massive coastal biases . • 2010 wish list: • Q1: Updates to RTGSST for near coast and inland lake areas. • Blending Navy and physical retrievals. • New land masks. • New SST climatology. • Remove spatial filtering from RTGSST-HR product (spatial filtering was for GSI/GFS, which never used RTGSST-HR)
Implementation plan • SST continued • Q1: Tentative convergence of Weekly OI and Daily OI SST analyses. • Timing depends on TIN and notification (30-60-90 days). • NOTE: Weekly OI is used in CPC and internationally for climate purposes, but is not in production (cron by Diana). • Q2: RTG Satellite updates. • Add AMSRE data from RSS source to be implemented by NESDIS in Q1. • Add NOAA 19 data (19 is replacing 18)
Implementation plan • SST continued • Q2: Implement Reynolds 15' SST analysis (CFS requirement). • Depends also on NESDIS AMSRE implementation. • Q3: In case of GSI spring implementation, Xu Li's SST physical retrievals with diurnal layer should be implemented as part of the RTGSST package.
Implementation plan • Sea ice • 2009 accomplishments: • Mitigated massive loss of product quality related to loss of satellite data (and/or reduced quality). • 2010 wish list: • Q1: Implement new land masks (reestablish consistency with SST. • May include a climatology reference. • Q2: Satellite updates. • New F15, 16, 17 filters/algorithm. • AMSRE improved processing (new Team2 algorithm etc).
Implementation plan • Waves • 2009 accomplishments: • Operational implementation of NDFD driven Great Lakes model. 2010 wish list: • 2009 holdovers: • Global multi-grid upgrade (now 2010 Q1) : • Side-by-side GRIB generation (TPC requirement). • Extension of grid into Artic (77° to 83°N, AK requirement). • Unification to model version 3.14. • Nesting bug at West Coast removed. • Higher internal spectral resolution (tentative).
Implementation plan • Waves continued • 2009 holdovers: • Hurricane multi-grid wave model (now 2010 Q2) : • Unification to model version 3.14. • Single global mosaic replacing two regional models. • Coastal resolution increase from 25km to 7.5 km. • Higher internal spectral resolution (tentative). • 2010 wish list: • Q?: Add FNMOC results to ensemble. • Waiting for live FNMOC data stream (from 2009).
Implementation plan • Waves continued • Q1: Upgrade processing of NDFD winds in Great Lakes model: • Avoid occasional bad coastal winds. • Reduce frequency of using backup NAM winds. • Bug fix delayed by moratorium. • Q3: Increase spectral resolution of point outputs in global and hurricane wave models. • Requires 90 day notification. • Output generation only, no model changes needed. Output converted to resolution as already used inside the model.
Implementation plan • Waves continued • Q3-Q4: downstream impact of GFS resolution upgrades will require modification to our preprocessing. • Either update processing of sigma files or move to using gridded 10m wind products (latter is preferable). • Q4: Add assimilation to global multi-grid wave model and retire last parts of old wave modeling systems (pre-mosaic). • Q4: Hurricane wave model upgrades: • Relocatable grids (highly tentative). • Hurricane wave model with SLOSH water levels in coastal grids (SS team milestone).
Implementation plan • Oceans • 2009 accomplishments: no major RTOFS implementations due to moratorium. Coupled HWRF-HYCOM is reaching maturity, run in parallel this season • 2009 holdovers: • HYCOM emergency update (Now 2010 Q1). • Improved SSH assimilation, including BC. • 2010 wish list: • Q1: Upgrade RTOFS-Atlantic: • Add JASON-2 SSH. • Add AMSR SST. • Streamline post-processing. • Update tidal boundary conditions (tentative).
Implementation plan • Oceans continued • Q2: RTOFS-Global (1/12° model from Navy) in NCO parallel. • Initialized using live data feed from NAVO (now still through internet). • Possibly with GFS forcing, otherwise NOGAPS forcing. • Contingent upon disk space. • Q3: Upgrade RTOFS-Atlantic. • Extend hindcast/nowcast to 4 days (contingent upon disk). • Upgrade to hourly GFS forcing (if available operationally) • Q4: Upgrade RTOFS-Global. • Tentative operational implementation. • Upgrade to hourly GFS forcing.
Implementation plan • Oceans continued • HWRF-HYCOM coupling is run in parallel by MMAB for the present hurricane season. • Promising results. • Implementation to be decided by hurricane group. • Implementation window is in Q2-Q3.
Projects • Site specific wave model • OSIP 06-093; a pilot project has given SWAN modeling capability to many coastal WFOs. This OSIP project aims at providing central support for this by replacing most such applications with a site-specific WAVEWATCH III model, integrated in NCEP operations. • Now funded for 2 years with NOS HFIP funds. • Additional 1 year funds for AWIPS integration from HQ. • Project expanded to produce coupled wave-surge capability (WW-ADCIRC). • Direct collaboration with NOS. • Part of SS roadmap.
Projects • Several projects are funded by or related to HFIP • See previous slide for wave-surge capability. • HFIP model coupling group focus on HWRF–HYCOM–WW coupling. • Providing modeling infrastructure to URI. • Coordinating with similar NRL efforts. • HFIP funding for Jason-2 altimeter data assimilation in RTOFS.
Collaborations • NOS • NOS converting models to NCO computer with minor help from us. • Great Lakes, PORTS, Gulf of Mexico. • More close collaboration in coupled wave-surge capabilities. • NOS implementing tide-surge version of ADCIRC on NCO computer. • Tentatively to be coupled to coastal WW grids. • Provide live boundary data for site-specific wave-surge model. • Similar collaborations are starting with OHD and Tsunami groups.
Collaborations • Many other collaborations • URI, coupled modeling. • Partially HFIP funded. • With RSMAS for coupler. • With ESRL for sea spray. • Navy (+SHOM) on both waves and ocean. • FSU on HYCOM. • JCSDA working group …. • NOPP on following slides • NGI, Alaskan Region, …. • Fisheries, ecosystems. • ….
NOPP • Waves NOPP • Starting Oct. 2010, aim is to improve operational wave modeling. • Seven international teams funded to work with NCEP and USACE (NRL, FNMOC). • At least six teams will work with WAVEWATCH III. • We will provide code management. • All will have svn accounts. • HYCOM NOPP • Just announced. Stay tuned.