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İstanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)

İstanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP). İstanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) Kazım Gökhan ELGİN Director March 20, 2006. DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTER. THROUGHOUT THE WORLD ; The natural disasters caused loss of 1.5 million lives in the last 20 years.

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İstanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP)

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  1. İstanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) İstanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) Kazım Gökhan ELGİN Director March 20, 2006

  2. DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTER THROUGHOUT THE WORLD; • The natural disasters caused loss of 1.5 million lives in the last 20 years. • While 15% of the population exposed to risk is in the developed countries, 1.8% loss of life occur in these countries. • 94% of natural disasters take place in developing countries. • 98% of the population affected from natural disasters live in these countries.

  3. DEVELOPMENT AND DISASTERcontinue THROUGHOUT THE WORLD; • Annual GDP loss in developing countries is between 2-15%. • The economic loss in developing countries is 20 times as much as developed countries. • The avarage annual loss resulting from disasters in 1990s USD 63 billion. • The annual loss resulting from disasters in 2050 is estimated as USD 300 billion.

  4. TURKEY AND NATURAL DISASTERS • Earthquakes • Turkey is one of the most active regions in the world in terms of seismicity. • 70% of the population live in seismically active areas. • 66% of the country is located on the active fault line. • 64% of total disaster losses and 75% of damaged buildings in the last century are due to earthquakes. • Floods • Mainly take place in coastal area and exacerbated by deforestration, erosion and uncontrolled development. • 15% of total disaster losses are due to floods. • Avarage annual loss is over USD 100 million. • Landslides • 25% of country territory is exposed to landslides. • 11% of total population is located within this area. • 16% of total disaster losses are due to landslides.

  5. Earthquake Toll in Turkey • The estimated avarage annual direct economic loss in the last decade is over USD 1 billion. • Frequency of earthquakes over 5.5 M per annum: 0.76 (6th in the world) • Annual loss of life due to disasters: 950 (3rd in the world) • Loss of life per capita (million): 15,58 (4th in the world) • Avarage population exposed to disasters per annum: 2.745.757 (8th in the world) • Loss of life per capita exposed to disasters (million): 346 (4th in the world)

  6. Lessons from 1999 Marmara Earthquake • COMMUNICATION • Interruption in communication • Phone lines being out of service in initial hours • RESPONSE • Insufficiency in organization and coordination • Chaotic environment • Bureaucracy; problems faced in official procedures and permission • Inefficiency in search and rescue activities at night due to poor illumination • Insufficiency in logistic support • Complexity caused by amateur rescue groups and volunteers lacking the • necessary health and building structure information • DAMAGE • More than 77,000 heavily damaged buildings • Damage in public buildings • Damaged and unutilized infrastructure • Complexity in building damage assesments • ECONOMIC LOSSES • USD 10-15 billion primary economic loss • 5-7% of Turkey’s GNP

  7. İstanbul • 13-14 million people, 20% of Turkey’s population, live in İstanbul. More than 40% of Turkish GNP is generated in the region. • Comparable seismic risk degree with San Francisco, Los Angeles and Tokyo cities • Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 30 years is greater than %50. • Probability of occurence of a large earthquake in next 10 years is greater than %20. • Impacts after a probable 7.5 Richter scale earthquake in Istanbul; • Approximately 70.000 dead people,120.000 injured-heavily injured people, 400.000 lightly injured people • direct economic loss ~30 billion US $

  8. Disaster Preparedness of Istanbul Under the Principles of Comprehensive Disaster Management Emergency Management Infrastructure/ Lifelines Superstructure / Buildings Cultural Heritage/ Historical Monum. Legal Issues Training Communication Systems • Ministry of Culture and Tourism • Gen. Dir. of Foundations • Metropollitan Mun. • Turkish Grand National Assembly • Private Property Development Law Public Awareness Public Buildings • Airports, harbors • Highways, bridges • Natural gas • Electricity • Water • Sewage • Others Disaster Insurance Emergency Mng. Info. Sys. Decision makers Residential/ Commercial Buildings Regulation on Soil Improvement Emergency Response Capacity Public Officials Retrofitting Regulation Industrial Estates / Factories Private Sector Condominium Law • Inventory • Prioritization • Multi-hazard risk assesment • Cooperation (historians, architects, international practices, int. Agreements..) • Pilot Studies Transfer of Development Rights Building Inspection Law • Research • Socio-economic • Willingness of • participation • Environmental • impact

  9. Disaster Preparedness of Istanbul Under the Principles of Comprehensive Disaster Management Emergency Management Infrastructure /Lifelines Superstructure / Buildings Cultural Heritage/ Historical Monum. Legal Issues Training Public Buildings Residential / Commercial Buildings Industrial Facilities / Factories Microzonation • Organized Industrial • Region • Industrial Zones • Big industrial • factories • Refineries • LPG storage stations • LPG and oil stations • causing danger in city • center • Industrial Facilities to be • relocated to suburbs acc. to • Land Use Plan • (1/5.000) • Hospitals • Schools / universities • Student Dormitories • Fire-brigades • Police • Other Physical Planning Building Assesment Retrofitting/ Urban Regeneration Prioritization Reconstruction • Assesment • Retrofitting • Reconstruction • Density Control • New Settlement Areas • Satellite cities

  10. Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project (ISMEP) • Country / Region : Turkey / Istanbul • Project Duration : 5 Years • Implementation : Istanbul Special Provincial Administration / Istanbul Project Coordination Unit (IPCU) • Finance : World Bank • Loan Amount : USD 400 million (310 million Euro)

  11. GOALS • Strengthening institutional and technical capacity of emergency management. • Increasing emergency preparedness and response awareness. • Retrofitting/Reconstruction of priority public buildings. • Vulnerability inventory and project design for cultural and historical heritage assets. • Taking supportive measures for the efficient implementation of development law and building codes.

  12. ISMEP İstanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation and Emergency Preparedness Project Enhancing Emergecy Preparedness Seismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public Facilities Enforcement of Building Codes Emergency Communication Sys. Retrofitting/Reconstruction of Priority Public Facilities Public Awareness US$ 0,23 million US$ 32,84 million US$ 305,62 million Development of The Regulatory Framework Emergency Management Inf. Sys. Risk Assessment for Lifelines and Vital Infrastructure US$ 7,66 million US$ 0,56 million US$ 2,45 million Upgrading the Emer. Res. Cap. in the İstanbul Metro. Region Voluntary Accreditation and Training of Engineers Risk Assessment of Historical & Cultural Heritage Buildings US$ 14,64 million US$ 1,20 million US$ 2,83 million Strengthening the Institutional Capacity of AYM Streamlining of Build. Permits Issuance Procedures US$ 9,77 million US$ 5,55 million Public Awar. and Neighborhood Community Volunteers US$ 8,45 million

  13. PRIORITIZATION OF PUBLIC BUILDINGS IN ISTANBUL • Approximately 2500 public buildings prioritized, • Criteria set for each sector, • Hospitals • Schools • Administrative Buildings • Social Service Buildings • Dormitories

  14. Prioritization Criteria for Schools

  15. PRIORITIZATION CRITERIA • Accessibility during disaster • Road priority

  16. Prioritization Criteria Distance from fault line

  17. Prioritization Criteria Importance of Schools in Disaster Management Plan • The buildings in Disaster Management Plans • Special features like capacity, open space, accessibility etc.

  18. Prioritized Public Buildings

  19. Seismic Risk Mitigation for Priority Public Buildings Vulnerability Assessment Retrofitting Reconstruction

  20. No. Of Buildings to be retrofitted

  21. ISMEP PROJECT Contributions of ISMEP Project: • Prevention of potential loss of life. • Mitigation of social, economic and financial effects of a possible earthquake. • Formation of a model for the design and implementation of other projects and activities within the field of disaster management. • Creation of a model to improve emergency management capacities of local governments.

  22. Let us all be; pro-active, strategic, comprehensive & try to prevent or mitigate

  23. Thank you...

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