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Market History and Forecast for Downtown Chicago, August 2014

Market History and Forecast for Downtown Chicago, August 2014. What’s Changed in 2014?. Chicago itself is doing as well as it ever has in occupancy. Rate is getting better. There are over 109,000 rooms in the metro area. An extra 10,000 rooms would be an increase of only 9% over 5 years.

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Market History and Forecast for Downtown Chicago, August 2014

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  1. Market History and Forecast for Downtown Chicago, August 2014

  2. What’s Changed in 2014? • Chicago itself is doing as well as it ever has in occupancy. Rate is getting better. • There are over 109,000 rooms in the metro area. An extra 10,000 rooms would be an increase of only 9% over 5 years. • Almost all the proposed hotels are in Chicago, which only has 36,000rooms, meaning it would be a 28% increase in downtown rooms! • Historically, Chicago sent over 500,000 rooms into the suburbs per year, or around 120 days. • Now it’s less than 100,000, or 10-20 days.

  3. Changes in the Traveler • People now stay where they want to. • Corporations are more flexible • There are way more rooms to choose from • The consumer is more informed • Thanks primarily to the internet • There are more travelers • Convention has stayed the same, but they’re a smaller percent (used to be 60%, now 45%). People don’t always stay in the HQ hotel anymore. • Leisure is a larger percentage (used to be 10% or less, now it’s 15% and growing)

  4. Regional Markets

  5. Why do we think Chicago is going to lose occupancy? • It’s all room count. • We’re going to add 20% more rooms to the supply in the next 5 years. • Demand is still going up, but not fast enough.

  6. Chicago Forecast • 2012-13 was the peak of the current cycle. • Winter sent Occupancy and Rates down Q1 2014. • Supply will take time to be absorbed.

  7. Weekly data • Tuesday is the highest rate day, Saturday is the highest occupancy day. • Tuesday is usually corporate and group, at full rack and is less price conscious. • Weekends are usually packaged rates and discounts. • This change happened about 5 years ago during the recession.

  8. Monthly Data • Historically consistent. May-October are the busy months. November-April are slow.

  9. Recent Sales

  10. This YTD is Rough • April • Occupancy down 2.5% • ADR down 4.5% • RevPAR down 6.9% • YTD • Occupancy down 4.9% • ADR down 3.8% • RevPAR down 8.4% • Supply up 5.6% YTD • Demand up 0.4% YTD

  11. New Supply • 2,800 rooms recently opened or about to open. • Another 4,800 in the planning stage. More are added almost weekly at this point. • A lot of conversion from old office buildings. • Neighborhoods are starting to get their own hotels, generally boutique properties.

  12. New, U C and Proposed Hotels Opened Early Planning Advancing

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