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The Chinese Economy: What’s the real Problem?

The Chinese Economy: What’s the real Problem?. Andong Zhu Tsinghua University IDEAs Conference on A Decade After: Recovery and Adjustment Since the East Asian Crisis 12-14 July 2007. Outline. Introduction The Impacts of the Crisis on the Chinese Economy What’s the Real Problem?

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The Chinese Economy: What’s the real Problem?

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  1. The Chinese Economy: What’s the real Problem? Andong Zhu Tsinghua University IDEAs Conference on A Decade After: Recovery and Adjustment Since the East Asian Crisis 12-14 July 2007

  2. Outline • Introduction • The Impacts of the Crisis on the Chinese Economy • What’s the Real Problem? • Conclusion

  3. Outline • Similar Story with Other Asian Countries • The Chinese Story • What’s the Real Problem • Conclusion

  4. Similar Story with Other Asian Countries • High GDP Growth • Savings Investment Gap • CA Surplus • High Foreign Reserves • Pressure for Appreciation of the Currence • Jobless Growth • High Inequality • Foreign Capital Penetration in the Economy • ……

  5. Decreasing Employment Elasticity

  6. Income Inequality in China:1979~2004

  7. Share in Industry Output by Ownership (%)

  8. The Chinese Story with the Crisis • One Good Impact: Capital Account Liberalization Stopped • Other Impacts:

  9. The Over-dependency on Foreign Trade

  10. The Over-dependency on Investment

  11. The Excessive Savings in China: 1981-2004

  12. Decreasing Consumption Rate

  13. Gini Coefficient for China’s Income Distribution Sweden 25, India 32.5, United States 40.8, China 44.7, Brazil 59.1

  14. The Increasing Inequality • According to a recent study, • In urban area, the top 10% family’s income is 31 times of the bottom 10% family’s income, rather than 9 times, as some statistics show. • If we consider both the urban and rural area, the ratio is 55, rather than 21 times.

  15. Informalizing Labor Market

  16. The Laid-off/privatization Movement

  17. The Laid-off/privatization Movement

  18. Ownership Changes in the Chinese Economy • Shrinking SOE Sector • Increasing Private Enterprises’ Share • Increasing Foreign Control

  19. Share in Industry Output by Ownership (%)

  20. Foreign Capital’s Share in Different Industries in China:2005

  21. Share of Different Ownership in Different Industries in China:2005

  22. Take away Profits, Leave GDPand… Pollution

  23. Pollution in the World:1999

  24. Searching a Job？Or a War？

  25. What’s the Real Problem? • Too much foreign Reserves • Too much foreign capital • High CA surplus (most of them owned by foreign capital) • Pressure for appreciation of the currence • Easy solution or not?

  26. Why We are always the Victim? • Should we just solve the urgent problem or should we rethinking the world political and economic system?

  27. Thanks!

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