Lecture 1 Effectuation and the Effectual Design Cycle

1. Lecture 1Effectuation and the Effectual Design Cycle

2. Effectuation • A logic of thinking that uniquely serves entrepreneurs in starting businesses • Provides a way to control a future that is inherently unpredictable

3. The Entrepreneurial Quadrant

4. Why Effectuation? • Ideas - Effectuation advances ideas toward sellable products and services with proven customers. • Stakeholder Commitments - Using effectuation, the entrepreneur interacts in search of self-selecting partners to co-create the venture with. • Decisions - Experts entrepreneurs use a set of techniques that serve as the foundation for making decisions about what to do next.

5. Effectuation IS: IS NOT: A system to tell you what to do An algorithm “Not planning” A way to launch an entire business • A thinking framework • A set of heuristics • Doing the do-able • How to get the sellable products and services established

6. Effectuation in Action FIRST: THEN:

7. Effectual Cycle

8. Startup - Option 1 • • Do market research and competitive analyses to figure out target market segments • • Develop marketing strategies, calculate cost/price margins, and make financial projections • • Make a business plan, raise resources, hire a team and build your venture.

9. Startup – Option 2 • Begin with who you are, what you know and who you know and begin DOING the doable with as little resources invested as possible • • In particular, begin interacting with a wide variety of potential stakeholders and negotiating actual commitments • • Let the actual commitments reshape the specific goals of the venture • • Repeat the process until the chain of stakeholders and commitments converges to a viable new venture

10. Causal Reasoning

11. Strategic Thinking

12. Entrepreneurial Thinking

13. Two Chefs • Chef 1 • Plans menu  Buys food  Cooks dinner • Chef 2 • Explores cupboards and fridge WHILE cooking dinner

14. Entrepreneurial Means • Who they are – their traits, tastes and abilities; • What they know – their education, training, expertise, and experience; and, • Who they know – their social and professional networks.

16. Four Aspects of Effectuation • Bird In Hand • Affordable Loss • Lemonade • Patchwork Quilt • Pilot in the Plane

17. Option 1 – Causal Logic • Analysis precedes action • Time and/or other resources are invested in upfront information gathering • Accuracy of prediction and clarity of goals drive the resource-acquisition process • Here the key is to bring the right people on board who can deliver on the pre-selected targets • Control over outcomes is achieved by being one step ahead of the trends and the competition • Risk management involves the careful avoidance of failure at all costs

18. Option 2 – Effectual Logic • Action and interaction with others precede and drive the entire process • Creative energies are focused on building the venture with virtually no resources invested • each stakeholder invests only what he or she can afford to or is willing to lose • Unpredictability itself is seen as a resource – hence the emphasis on non-predictive strategies • Who comes on board determines the goals and shape of the new venture and its market • Control is achieved by doing the doable and continually transforming current realities into new and unforeseen possibilities • Risk management involves keeping failures small and having them happen early, and then building upon them for future success.

19. Staging of Effectual and Causal Logic

20. Relationship between Causal and Effectual Logic