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SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age

SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age. A Fast Review China After the Peak Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia. Peter Zeihan Association of American Manufacturers November 5. Transport and the United States. 400 2,000 4,000 60,000. Evolving Demography.

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SubSaharan Africa and Southeast Asia in the American Age

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  1. SubSaharan Africaand Southeast Asia in the American Age • A Fast Review • China After the Peak • Africa, Australia and Southeast Asia Peter Zeihan Association of American Manufacturers November 5

  2. Transport and the United States 400 2,000 4,000 60,000

  3. Evolving Demography

  4. The First Chinese Problem: Unity Northern consolidation difficult; Yellow River unnavigable Beijing is the political/military capital Yangtze is navigable Shanghai is the economic capital South has good ports, but (sub)tropical Greatly retards northern control Encourages foreign presence

  5. The Second Chinese Problem: The Limits of Bribery Country requires social binding agent Private capital pooled, then funneled at sub-market rates Maximize employment by large firm size, market share and throughput at the cost of debt and profitability Subsidizes inputs and outputs

  6. The Third Chinese Problem: Nationwide Subprime ?

  7. Three Thoughts on China Development limitations Inflation/Deflation Timing Matters Now not so bad 2015-2019: European consumption collapses and developed world demographics flip • Inland China is the only inland Asia • International credit up • Commodities down • Manufactured goods up

  8. The China Wars

  9. The African Geography • Land of plateaus • Extremely limited infra • Only Chinese demand justifies most development • Two (competing) exceptions

  10. Ninja Assistance to the other Congo South Africa v Angola Militant Proxies to Zaire/Congo • Mining and apartheid infrastructure • 25 years later… • The Angolan challenge • Oil, Benguela and … Ninjas Bombed Zambia Ninja Assistance to Zimbabwe Coup In Namibia

  11. The Australian Geography • Problematic geography • Growth markets likely to tank… • …but only non-US geography that can implement shale quickly • And close to…

  12. The Southeast Asian Geography • China debris (economic and strategic) • Powerful growth base effect • Strong U.S. alignments • All-urban polities • Isolated population/ industrial hubs

  13. Two Parting Thoughts The Biggest Deltas The New Trade Triangle US consumption Oz resources SEAsianmanufacturing • Indonesia • 200+ million pop, half in one place • Singapore money, Malaysia middle-manufacturing • Myanmar • Trying to escape China • Ayeyarwady is navigable!

  14. National Stability: 2020-2040 The Accidental Superpower Coming September 2014

  15. The South Asian Geography Ganges basin is radically fertile Rivers unnavigable (Sub)tropical throughout Divorced from Asia • Extremely low capital per capita • Crushing, endemic, inescapable poverty

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