Secondary Consultancy

1. Secondary Consultancy cpd and direct support www.worcestershire.gov.uk www.edulink.networcs.net

2. Leading Intervention 1 8th October 2010

3. CPD overview LI1 8th October 9-12 Finstall What Can Data Do For You? LI2 2nd November 4-6 Finstall Effective Tracking LI3 17th November 9-4 Finstall The Whole School Picture LI4 30th November 8-10 Finstall Effective Intervention LI5 11th January 9-12 Pitmaston Making a Difference LI6 10th February 8-10 Finstall Behaviour & attendance LI7 23rd June 9-12 Pitmaston Evaluation & Next Steps

4. Role of Intervention Leader Track pupil progress Be a source of data and analysis, and advice Coordinate resources for staff and pupils Have an overview of intervention Monitor the impact Liaise with subject leaders, with pastoral leaders, with Strategy Manager, with school Data Manager etc

5. Aims of the morning Be familiar with sources and types of data School data FFT RAISEonline Begin to identify pupils for intervention Begin to effectively analyse data

6. Using data keymessages • Data collection does not in itself solve anything • Data provides questions not answers • Data analysis should be used to promote discussion, evaluation and planning • Analyses for different groups of pupils, and a range of indicators, help identify strengths or areas for development/intervention • Use the past to inform the future

7. What’s the point? Historical data • Assessments at key points • Ongoing assessments Targets • Where should they be in the future? (externally set, internally set, adjusting for pupil progress) • Interim targets Monitoring • Comparing progress with targets (individuals and overall) and reacting Summaries • Comparisons of overall estimates/targets with actual results

8. Sources of data & targets Projects Formal Teacher Assessments Mocks Traffic lighting School attendance FFT Behaviour Raiseonline Expected progress rates Homeworks What are you collecting data for? What data do you need? Prioritise! ? Tests Feeder schools Rewards and sanctions Ongoing Teacher Assessments SATs Exams School historical data Pupil self- assessments Lesson attendance CATs

9. Data calendar What data is collected centrally by the school? What data is collected by subject/pastoral teams? What decisions are made as a whole school? What decisions are made within subject/pastoral teams? Does data inform decisions? Are decisions based on data? Could the process be improved?

10. Fischer Family Trust Aims to help schools make effective use of test and TA data Database of all matched pupils Includes past test and TA data Includes estimates of future attainment based on national progress patterns

11. Using Prior Attainment and School Context Using Prior Attainment as an indicator of future performance, we know: • Current attainment is highly dependent on prior attainment • Girls make different progress to boys • Autumn born pupils have higher attainment than Summer born pupils • Pupils’ prior attainment in English often has a greater impact on subsequent progress than attainment in Maths or Science Taking account of School Context, we know: • Pupils from deprived backgrounds tend to make less progress (geodemographic data) • The spread of prior attainment for the cohort can have an impact on estimates of future achievement

12. Factors

13. Value Added Models 3 value-added models have been developed: Model PA (Prior Attainment) Prior Attainment Gender Month of Birth Model SE (Socio Economic) Prior Attainment Gender Month of Birth School Context Model SX (School EXtended) Prior Attainment Gender Month of Birth School Context Pupil Context

14. Which estimate type?

15. FFT Reports – www.fftlive.org

16. So where do the estimates come from? Take eight ‘similar’ students at the end of Key Stage 2: All 8 students have the same overall prior attainment using an Autumn Package points score.

17. The chances graph Average points score of 26 to 28 26<= KS2 Average Point Score <=28 Last year, 33% of students with average points score of 26-28 achieved grade C So… estimate of 55% chance of achieving grades A*-C …and estimate of 77% of achieving D+

18. 26% 10% 4% 36% Gender Marks 48% 12% Subject differences 16% 18% Month of birth FFTfactors: Prior Attainment Model

19. Student Estimates Model Used Probability L4+/A*-C Most likely level Level achieved by top 5% - 25% of similar pupils Prior Attainment

20. Focusing on a Student • Looking at the first student on the sheet... • Questions: • What would you expect this student to achieve at the end of the next Key Stage? • What targets would you set? • What other information would you need to reach a more informed decision?

21. Activity Highlighted sheet (Pupil Estimates Type D) • Estimated level/grades highlighted if close to boundary • High percentage chances in yellow • Low percentage chances in pink • Rest in blue Without additional action, how many L4+/A* - C would you expect? Which students would you target for intervention? What other questions would you want answered? What action would you take next?

22. School Estimates Range of Estimates • Matched students only; A, B, D; includes attainment & progress • Also: Breakdown by gender, upper/ middle/lower, etc • Box: 3 year trend for this school • LA guidance is to use Type D to build in some challenge • Targets may be set above these

23. Sowhere do these estimates come from? How many A* - C would you expect from this list? For the FFT school estimate: Add the percentages, divide by 100 26+10+4+36+48+12+16+18+24+6 = 200 200 ÷ 100 = 2 So A* - C estimate is 2 students out of the 10 What are the implications for intervention?

24. Activity Highlighted sheet again What are the L4+/A* - C estimates for the sheet, using the % chances? What are the implications for intervention?

25. Accessing the FFT data Website (www.fftlive.org), password from Data Manager • Updated automatically with validated data • ‘old’ estimates will be overwritten Know the school policy on the versions: • Which version are the estimates taken from? • Are they fixed for the year or key stage, or are they flexible?

26. FFT Key messages Use the individual pupil estimates Use the school estimates Be aware of both when identifying pupils for intervention Use the ‘actuals’ reports to review the success of intervention and inform future action

27. What does it all mean? Match the cards How many can you match in 5 minutes? STOP!

28. Estimates/Targets National expectations are set by DFE Estimate is based on statistical evidence An estimate may be a likely outcome for a typical school, or a likely outcome for a school performing in the top 25% Prediction is based on past performance + professional knowledge of a pupil Target is based on prediction and builds in aspiration

29. National Expectations DFE expectations: KS1 to KS2 all L2 + 45% of L1  L4 All to make at least 1 level of progress All should make at least 2 levels of progress Reporting: % achieving L4+ in both Eng and Ma % making 2 levels of progress in Eng % making 2 levels of progress in Ma

30. National Expectations DFE expectations: KS2 to KS3 all L4 + 50% of L3  L5 (and increasing majority  L6) all L5 (in both Eng and Ma)  L6 (and increasing majority  L7) All to make at least 1 level of progress Reporting: % achieving L5+ in both Eng and Ma, and % L5+ in Sci % making 2 levels of progress in Eng % making 2 levels of progress in Ma

31. National Expectations DFE expectations: KS3 to KS4 30% of average L5 + all L6  5 A*-C (incl Eng and Ma) All L6 (in Eng and Ma) make 2 levels of progress in both Increasing majority of L5 in Eng and Ma make 2 levels of progress in both. Reporting: % of 5A*-C including Eng and Ma % making 2 levels of progress in Eng % making 2 levels of progress in Ma

32. Raiseonline www.raiseonline.org Based on each pupil’s prior attainment Compares top 50% and 25% of schools Shows estimates (as targets) for pupils, groups, cohorts Allows moderation of the suggested pupil targets

33. Two sets of pupil data National provided data School’s own data Updated by DCSF Updated/amended by the school Data Manager Used for the full PANDA report, available to Ofsted, SIPs, LA Can be shared with Ofsted, SIPs, LA; sharing requires school action Initially these are identical • Oct/Nov • Spring • July • Updates overwrite any school amendments • Amended pupil results • School defined pupil attributes and teaching groups • Optional test data • Question level data • Moderated pupil targets

34. RAISEonline

35. view all analyses The Report Wizard

36. Click this link to save any report you find useful Change the file name if you wish, then Save Reports with grouping • Use the drop-down boxes to change • graph • year • subject • gender • other groupings

37. Interactive VA graphs Click on data points to identify groups or pupils

38. RAISEonline Key messages Use the individual pupil results Use the school results Compare with the national picture Use these to reflect on the success of previous intervention and hence to inform future action

39. FFT v RAISEonline both use historic national pupil data use social context data provide summaries of attainment creates estimates of future attainment summaries largely at school level FFT RAISEonline database includes FFT estimates summaries include national data for comparison allows question-level analysis

40. So… Use FFT pupil estimates, FFT school estimates to aid selection of pupils for intervention Use RAISEonline pupil & school tables & graphs to learn lessons from the past to inform future intervention Use school data and teacher knowledge to refine selection of pupils & choice of intervention package

41. Setting targets Estimates should be used to SUPPORT planning and target setting: • FFT reports offer estimates not targets • Estimates help us to set targets • A teacher’s professional knowledge of the pupil is vital in target setting • Targets are not predictions • Targets should be aspirational • Targets need not be fixed • School policy may impact on target-setting

42. Next Steps... Use the individual student estimates Use the subject estimates Use your department’s knowledge of the students Create moderated targets Use these to identify groups of students for intervention Bring to the next session! 2nd Nov 4-6 Finstall Use the ‘actuals’ reports to review the success of intervention and inform future action

43. Thank you Secondary Consultancy cpd and direct support www.worcestershire.gov.uk www.edulink.networcs.net