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Cornerstone Research Nashville Apartment Market Analysis Dags Chen

Cornerstone Research Nashville Apartment Market Analysis Dags Chen Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers LLC. Cornerstone Research. Top Down. Research drives Cornerstone investment process Strategy Tactics Public (REIT) and private real estate research integrated

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Cornerstone Research Nashville Apartment Market Analysis Dags Chen

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  1. Cornerstone Research Nashville Apartment Market Analysis Dags Chen Cornerstone Real Estate Advisers LLC

  2. Cornerstone Research Top Down • Research drives Cornerstone investment process • Strategy • Tactics • Public (REIT) and private real estate research integrated • Cornerstone “scrubs” industry data to remove errors and refine accuracy • Cornerstone’s granular analysis is more localized than typical • Live access to data and forecasts throughout Cornerstone via the Research Analyst platform Research Insight Data Models Forecasts Value Regional Teams Local Data Market Presence Bottom Up

  3. Cornerstone Research Demand, Supply, and Local Coefficient Inputs are property-type specific Economy.com’s NAICs Employment Forecast Dun & Bradstreet Establishment Data by NAICs Demographic Forecasts Market Occupancy & Rate/Rent Trends Cornerstone’s Demand Model: Employment Growth by Zip Code, County, and MSA, Benchmarked to U.S. Construction Activity, History and Forecast Scrubbed supply data from F.W. Dodge Pipeline Regional Office, REIT Team and Hotel Team input Demand/Supply Forecast w/ Local Coefficients Occupancy Forecast, Rent Growth, Market Weighting, Investment Recommendation

  4. Forecast US GDP Growth 1/12/08 Forecast Weakness is pervasive and accelerating. Forecast for negative GDP through 2009, recovery hopes in 2010, employment recovery lags. 6 quarters of negative growth would be the longest contraction since the Depression Source: Consensus Forecasts, Cornerstone Research 2-6-2009

  5. Steep Jobs Decline and Slow Recovery Months to recover peak employment 19 28 32 48 50+ months? Total Job Losses 1972-76: -2.1mm 1980-83: -2.8mm Current: -3.5mm through January, (another 2mm to go?) Source: Bureau of Labor Research, Cornerstone Research 12-8-2008, 1-14-2009 Source: Cornerstone Research

  6. Commercial Real Estate Transaction Activity Blackstone purchase of Hilton Blackstone purchase of EOP Source: Real Capital Analytics

  7. NCREIF Property Index Comparison

  8. The Grove at Cumberland Bluffs

  9. Economy.com Precis Report

  10. Nashville Apartment Submarkets

  11. Belle Meade / West End

  12. Downtown

  13. Rent Comps

  14. Locations of Major Employers

  15. Franklin/Williamson County

  16. Rent Comps

  17. Shadow Supply

  18. Submarket and Market Rent and Occupancy

  19. Rent Comps

  20. Proforma Cash Flow

  21. Proforma Cash Flow

  22. Commercial Mortgage Spreads (as of 2/11/2009) Source: DTZ Rockwood Financial

  23. Historical Rent Growth Downtown West End Nashville U.S. Source: Axiometrics

  24. Rent Growth Linked to Job Growth Nashville Employment Growth Source: Axiometrics, BLS

  25. Axiometrics Vacancy History Downtown West End Nashville U.S. Source: Axiometrics

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