The United States Presidential Election Process

1. The United StatesPresidential Election Process Objectives: To develop a better understanding of the Electoral College No First 5- Get out Notes

2. THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

3. Does the popular vote elect the president? NOPE!!! • So who does? • Electors choose the president and states each have their own way of choosing electors • Huh? What about voting?

4. During the General Election when casting a ballot for a particular candidate, voters are actually voting for a slate of electors. These electors in turn will vote for that candidate in the Electoral College

5. The Electoral College was devised for 3 reasons 1. The framers of the Constitution feared direct democracy. Hamilton and the other founders did not trust the population to make the right choice. “election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station” – James Madison

6. The Electoral College was devised for 3 reasons 2. The founding fathers wanted to protect the interests of smaller states and rural areas

7. The Electoral College was devised for 3 reasons 3. The Electoral College helps dilute the effect of votes from densely populated centers which may steer away from the concerns of the rest of the country

8. Presidential Electors are nominated by their state political parties in the summer before the Popular Vote on Election Day • In some states, the Electors are nominated in primaries the same way that other candidates are nominated • Other states nominate Electors in party conventions

9. ELECTORS The number of electors for each state is based on # of senators + # of representatives All states have a minimum of 3 electoral votes

10. The party that wins a state elects its entire slate of Electors. This is known as a Winner Take-all System(2 exceptions: Maine & Nebraska)

11. The Presidential Electors meet in their respective state capitols in December, 41 days following the election, at which time they cast their electoral votes. Thus the "electoral college" never meets as one national body.

12. Candidates must receive a majority of the electoral vote to be declared the President-elect or Vice-President-elect

13. ELECTORAL VOTES 435 U.S. Representatives + 100 U.S. Senators = 535 electoral votes + 3 electoral votes (Washington D.C.) ----------------------------------------- = 538 total electoral votes

14. If no candidate for President receives an absolute electoral majority 270 votes out of the 538 possible, then the House of Representatives is required to go into session immediately to vote for President. (an even split would be 269 votes)

15. The House votes en-bloc by state for this purpose that is, one vote per state, which is determined by the majority decision of the delegation from that state.if a state delegation is evenly split that state is considered as abstaining.

16. This vote would be repeated if necessary until one candidate receives the votes of more than half the state delegations—at least 26 state votes, given the current number, 50, of states in the union.

17. If no candidate for Vice President receives an absolute majority of electoral votes, then the United States Senate must do the same, with the top two vote getters for that office as candidates. The Senate votes in the normal manner in this case, not by States. It is unclear if the sitting Vice President would be entitled to cast his usual tie-breaking vote if the Senate should be evenly split on the matter

18. If the House of Representatives has not chosen a winner in time for the inauguration (noon on January 20), then the Constitution of the United States specifies that the new Vice President becomes Acting President until the House selects a President. If the winner of the Vice Presidential election is not known by then either, then under the Presidential Succession Act of 1947, the Speaker of the House of Representatives would become Acting President until the House selects a President or the Senate selects a Vice President

19. The People’s Choice • Is the President of the United States “the people’s choice?” • In 2000, Al Gore received 50,999,897 votes to George W. Bush’s 50,456,002. • Nixon won the presidency in 1968 with 43.4% of the popular vote. • Bill Clinton won in 1992 with only 43% of the total votes. • Woodrow Wilson won in 1912 with 41.9%. • Abraham Lincoln won in 1860 with 39.8% of the popular vote—the all-time winner in the “least popular successful candidates” sweepstakes.

20. Who Are the Electors? • Though there may be party and state rules that “bind” electors to cast their ballots for the candidate with the most votes in that state, the Constitution appears to provide no bar to electors who wish to vote their conscience, rather than the party line. • Indeed, a number of recent electors have case their votes for candidates other than the one they were “pledged” to support. • For example, in 1976 one of the Washington state Republican electors pledged to Gerald Ford actually cast his vote for Ronald Reagan. Had only 5,559 voters in Ohio and 3,687 voters in Hawaii voted for Ford instead of Carter, with the one electoral vote “switch” from Ford to Reagan, For would have finished with 269 electoral votes to Carter’s 268 and Reagan’s 1. The House would have decided the election. • In 1988, one of the electors pledged to Democrat Michael Dukakis cast his vote for Dukakis’ running mate Lloyd Bentsen.

21. November 5, 2009 • Objectives: To develop a better understanding of the Electoral College • Question: How many electoral votes does it take to win the presidency? What happens if it is a tie? • Agenda: Notes then Presidential Karaoke

22. How are electors chosen? • Each party determines its own method for selecting electors. In the Democratic Party, each congressional nominee and each US Senate nominee (determined by the last two elections) designates one elector whose names are filed with Secretary of State by October 1 of the presidential election year.

23. In the Republican Party, the nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer, controller, attorney general, secretary of state, United States Senators (again, going back two elections) the Senate and Assembly Republican leaders, all elected officers of the Republican state central committee, the national committeeman and committeewoman, the president of the Republican county central committee chairmen's organization and the chair or president of each Republican volunteer organization officially recognized by the state central committee act as electors.

24. A faithless elector is one who casts an electoral vote for someone other than whom they have pledged to elect. On 158 occasions, electors have cast their votes for president in a different manner than that prescribed by the legislature of the state they represent.

25. So what do you need to win? • There are a total of 538 electoral votes. • A president must get 270 to be declared the winner. • If no one gets that number, the House of Representatives gets to pick the president from the top 3 vote-getters. • Then the Senate would choose the Vice-President from the top 2 vote-getters

26. 2000 - Barbara Lett-Simmons (Democrat, District of Columbia)In the most recent act of Elector abstention, Barbara Lett-Simmons, a Democratic Elector from the District of Columbia, did not cast her vote for Al Gore as expected. Her abstention was meant to protest the lack of Congressional representation for Washington, DC. Lett-Simmons was the first Elector to abstain from voting since 1832. Her abstention did not affect the outcome of the election.

27. 1988 - Margaret Leach (Democrat, West Virginia) Margaret Leach, a nurse from Huntington, WV, was pledged to the Democratic Party. During the Electoral College process, Leach learned that members of the Electoral College were not required to vote for the candidates they were pledged to. Upon learning this, she decided to draw more attention to the situation by switching her votes for President and Vice President. She cast her Presidential vote for Lloyd Bentsen, the Democratic Vice Presidential candidate, and cast her Vice Presidential vote for Michael Dukakis, the Democratic Presidential candidate. Leach tried to convince other Electors to join her, but hers remained the only unexpected vote.

28. Resolving Deadlocks in the House: One State-One Vote • How should state delegations decide to cast their single vote? • The opportunities for mischief are great. One can easily imagine the kinds of promises that would be made to potential switchers, given the stakes of the decision. • The most controversial elections: Photograph of John Quincy Adams. 1848.

29. 1800 • 1800-The election in 1800 went to the House of Representatives after a voting mix-up left Thomas Jefferson and his vice presidential running mate Aaron Burr with the same number of electoral votes. It took the House 36 ballots and six days to declare Jefferson the winner.Congress fixed this in 1804 with the 12th Amendment, which required that the president and vice president be voted on separately.

30. 1824 • 1824: Despite losing the popular and electoral votes, John Quincy Adams became president. The election was known to some as the “Corrupt Bargain” after Adams named Henry Clay, the speaker of the House of Representatives—and the man who convinced Congress to elect Adams—to serve as secretary of state.Adams faced Andrew Jackson, who won the popular vote and the most electoral votes, but not the majority. So, as in 1800, the House of Representatives had to decide the election. Clay had been among the presidential candidates, but had the fewest electoral votes. Before the House had a chance to consider the matter, though, “a Philadelphia newspaper published an anonymous letter claiming that Clay would support Adams in return for an appointment as Secretary of State.

31. 1876 • Before the 2000 election, there was the 1876 election between Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden, governors of Ohio and New York, respectively. Although both parties accused each other of corruption during the campaign, it was after the votes had been cast that the shenanigans really started. Hayes went to bed Election Night believing he had lost. When the votes had been counted, Tilden had won the popular vote and had a 184-165 lead in the electoral vote. However, 20 electoral votes in South Carolina, Oregon, Florida and Louisiana were contested; Hayes’ supporters sent messages to Republican leaders in the southern states saying, “With your state sure for Hayes, he is elected. Hold your state.”Both sides were thought to have engaged in fraud, and the weeks passed without a clear winner. In December, Congress stepped in, forming a 15-member committee to investigate the matter. In February, the commission voted 8-7 along party lines to give Florida’s electoral votes for Hayes; it would do the same for Louisiana, Oregon, and South Carolina, giving Hayes the required 185 electoral votes to win the presidency.Republicans made backroom deals with Democrats to ensure Hayes’ victory, promising to appoint Democrats to cabinet positions and end reconstruction efforts. On March 2—three days before inauguration day—Hayes was officially declared the winner.“On Monday, March 5, 1877, Rutherford B. Hayes was sworn in publicly as president of the United States

32. 1888 • Grover Cleveland, who was running for a second term against Benjamin Harrison, had 93,000 more popular votes after the election in 1888. Though he lost in the Electoral College 233 to 168, according to Harper’s Weekly. New York and Indiana, which had supported Cleveland in his first election, swung to favor Harrison, who won the election

33. 2000 • The election in 2000 “resulted in the most bizarre vote count in American history,” said the Eagleton Institute of Politics at Rutgers. Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote, but lost in the Electoral College. Though Gore conceded the race the day after Election Day, he rescinded his concession after learning that Florida was too close to call • In Palm Beach County, an unexpectedly large vote for third-party candidates leads to questions about the ‘butterfly ballot’ there, where the names of candidates are placed on the left and right columns of a page and a series of punch holes are found in a center column. Large numbers of disqualified ballots, or ballots where no vote is registered for president, are found in other counties

34. An initial recount in Florida showed Bush ahead by about 300 votes, of almost 6 million in total. As some counties there started hand recounts, Bush went to court to stop them. Florida’s Supreme Court said the hand-counts could continue, but set a deadline some county officials did not think they could meet. The U.S. Supreme Court eventually ruled that the state Supreme Court had overstepped its authority by setting new standards to determine who won the election. • The court’s decision was issued on Dec. 12. The Electoral College met the next week, and Bush received 271 votes to Gore’s 266.

35. Why No Change? • National public opinion has long supported the abolition of the entire Electoral College, yet nothing changes. • Why? Two reasons: 1) The zeal of small states to protect their power within the system and 2) opposition from minorities who believe their power will be diluted. • In 1969, the House voted 338-70 for a constitutional amendment establishing national direct election by popular vote. • But in the Senate, southern and small state conservatives aligned to filibuster the proposal because they believed that reform would destroy the special influence the electoral college gives their constituencies. • Ten years later, the Senate fell fifteen votes short of the necessary 2/3 when Democrats from New York, New Jersey, and Maryland led the opposition after black and Jewish organizations claimed that their supposed pivotal power in big swing states would be threatened. • Even if congress were to pass such an amendment, consider the difficulty of obtaining ratification by ¾ of the states. It only takes 13 states to keep an amendment from being enacted. There are 14 states that reap dramatic benefit from the senatorial bonus: Alaska, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Montana, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wyoming. And this list does not include the additional 14 states whose percentage of the electoral vote is higher than their percentage of the national population. What incentive do these states have to ratify a constitutional amendment? • Perhaps the biggest lesson from Bush v. Gore (2000) is that the current presidential election system will almost certainly remain in tact. The American people’s apathy toward and acceptance of that result demonstrates how difficult it would be to obtain a public groundswell for change.

36. The Impermeable Article V? • “The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as Part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; … [although] no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.”

37. Alternatives to a Constitutional Amendment • Article II, section 1 empowers each state to “appoint” its presidential electors in “such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct.” Article I, section 10 authorizes Congress to consent to “any agreement or compact” by one state with another. • Large states could compact with one another to appoint electors who will be directed to cast their votes for the person who wins the greatest number of votes in the overall national election. The compact would not come into effect until enough states (which could be as few as the 11 largest states) to constitute a majority of the electoral votes had agreed to the compact. Upon Congress agreeing to the compact, the United States would in effect move to a popularly elected presidency. • Congress could call for a new constitutional convention after 2/3 of the states petition Congress for such a move. The convention’s new constitution would only take effect if ratified in a national referendum. • In the end, it is the American people that will determine whether such proposals are possible. The advent of new technologies, particularly the internet, have made it possible for relatively easy collective action. As a result, electronic petitions and websites have been launched to change the presidential election process. Will these work?

38. YOUR VOTE COUNTS • Did you know: • That several of our states, including California, Idaho, Oregon, Texas and Washington, became states by just ONE vote? • That in 1948, Lyndon B. Johnson, our 36th president, became a U.S. senator by a ONE vote margin? • And that same year, if Thomas E. Dewey had gotten ONE vote more per precinct in Ohio and California, the presidential election would have been thrown to the U.S. House of Representatives, where Dewey enjoyed more support than his rival -- incumbent Harry S. Truman? In fact, Dewey was expected to win the general election by a landslide, so most Republicans stayed home. Only 51.5 percent of the electorate voted in 1948, and Truman defeated Dewey. • Not convinced? • In the 1960 presidential election, ONE additional vote per precinct in Illinois, Missouri, New Jersey and Texas would have denied John F. Kennedy the presidency and put Richard M. Nixon in office eight years earlier. • In recent years, the outcomes of many state and congressional races have been reversed as recounts have shifted a handful of votes from one candidate to another.

39. The 2008 Presidential Election

40. 2004

41. 2000

42. 1996

43. 1992