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Prisbildning på certifikatsmarknaden

Prisbildning på certifikatsmarknaden. Experiences. Studies prior to the introduction indicated a price around 10 EUR / MWh. Year 2003 20 EUR/MWh (Buy out tariff 18 EUR/MWh 25% paid the buy out tariff). Year 2004 25 EUR/MWh (Buy out tariff 25 EUR/MWh. Buy out tariff today is

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Prisbildning på certifikatsmarknaden

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  1. Prisbildning på certifikatsmarknaden

  2. Experiences Studies prior to the introduction indicated a price around 10 EUR / MWh Year 2003 20 EUR/MWh (Buy out tariff 18 EUR/MWh 25% paid the buy out tariff) Year 2004 25 EUR/MWh (Buy out tariff 25 EUR/MWh Buy out tariff today is 150% of annual average The target of 10 TWh new generation to 2010 is not expected to be reached

  3. Surplus/ deficit in the certificate system Source: r Översyn av elcertifikatsystemet ER 2005:09

  4. Figur 2 : Quota development and added generation. Source DS 2005:29

  5. What do the market expect? Spot price + interest rate = forward price (certificate are inexpensive to store) 20 EUR/MWh Is that a reasonable estimation? What is the risk of shortage in the system? If there is a shortage the price can be very high!

  6. What is needed to reach 10 TWh? (Examples from the Swedish energy agency) • Wind power land based Five parks with 40 plants each • Wind power sea based Sex parks with 50 plants each • Industrial back pressure 10 plants invest in new turbines • Combined heat and power 15-20 new or renovated plants • Hydropower 15 new plants and reinvestment in another 100

  7. Estimated generation costs for different tecnologies Figures from 2003, source “översyn av certifikatsystemet ER2005:9”

  8. Conclusion • Stable price level over the next few years • Later during the period, the risk of large price fluctuations will increase • New information about investments / no investments will effect the price level • It is the risk of shortage that decides the price level – other factors like the cost of renewable generation and the present market price of the electricity is of less importance • Permit issues are crucial Issues • What do investors think about the longevity of the certificate system?

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