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Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

Setting of an experimental forecast system for air quality at ECMWF in the framework of the GEMS project : implementation and first results. Forêt (1),(2) G., Monge (2) J-.L., Menut (2) L., Vautard (3) R., Beekmann (1) M.

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Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

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  1. Setting of an experimental forecast system for air quality at ECMWF in the framework of the GEMS project : implementation and first results • Forêt(1),(2) G., Monge(2) J-.L., Menut(2) L., Vautard(3) R., Beekmann(1) M. • Laboratoire Inter-universitaire des Systèmes Atmosphériques (LISA) • Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) • Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (LSCE) Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  2. Context of this work ▪3D Chemical Transport Model are now used to assess air pollutionfrom global to urban scales… nevertheless large uncertainties remains: external forcings : emissions, meteorology, chemical boundary conditions representation of dynamics : pollutants dispersion representations of chemical and physical mecanisms (gases and aerosols) numerical representation ▪Great Potential for increasing CTM performances : increasing number of teams working on AQ modelling increasing computing capacity multiplication of observations (satellites)  Synergetical approach via integrated projects : GEMS, PROMOTE

  3. A common will to ameliorate air quality modelling : The GEMS project Purpose of GEMS (Global and regional Earth-system Monitoring using Satellite and in-situ data) : Create a new European system for operationnal global monitoring of Atmospheric chemistry and to produce improved medium-range & short range air-chemistry forecasts.  GEMSsub-projects : ●Global Monitoring system for Greenhouse Gases (GHG) ●Global Monitoring system for Reactive Gases (GRG) ● Global Monitoring system for Aerosols (AER) ●Regional Air-Quality Monitoring and Forecasting (RAQ) Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  4. The GEMS RAQ sub project Objectives : ▪Provide, Evaluate NRT forecasts (gases and aerosols) at continental to regional scale, relying on global and regional assimilated fields ▪ Improve existing continental to regional scales air quality models, statistical post-treatment, and explore multi-model ensemble approaches ▪ Use of satellite information for air quality prognoses ▪ Impact of the global change on regional air quality ▪ European cooperation for data access, skill evaluation and forecasts comparisons ▪ Evaluate health impact of air quality and produce dedicated products • Several AQ model used for sensivity studies and cross-comparison exercices • Recommandation for future RAQ modelling systems Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  5. The CHIMERE-GEMS system (1/2) Starting model version  based on the operationnal PREV’AIR platform : (www.prevair.ineris.fr) GFS/NCEP Global meteorological forecasts MM5 Regional meteorological forecasts LMDZ-INCA (gases) GOCART (aerosols) Large scale chemical forcing from monthly climatology EMEPemissions USGS land use, land cover CHIMERE Regional CTM ● gaseous chemistry module ● aerosols module ● advection, turbulence ● dry and wet deposition Prognose hourly concentrations : gases (O3, NO2, CO, SO2…) aerosols (Sulf, Nitrate,…) http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/ Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  6. The CHIMERE-GEMS system (2/2) The CHIMERE-GEMS version : Geographical GEMS domain [35°N-70°N; 15°E-35°W] Horizontal resolution 101x71 cells ; 0.5°x0.5° Vertical resolution 8 levels ; top at 500 hPa http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/GEMSchimere Meteorological forcing from Integrated forecasting System (ECMWF)  Test over a summer period (2005)  Installing an operationnal system at ECMWF New emission cadaster (from TNO; 6kmx6km over Europe)  spring 2007 Forecasted boundary chemical fields for gases (GRG) and aerosols (AER)  june 2007 Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  7. Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (1/6) Change of the meteorological forcing in the forecasting system Global met. frcst GFS (NCEP) (1°x1°) Regio. met. frcst MM5 (0.5°x0.5°) Regio. Chem. rcst CHIMERE-GEMS Global met. frcst IFS (ECMWF) (0.5°x0.5°) Regional chem. frcst CHIMERE-GEMS Skill scores of the forecasts for surface ozone daily peaks values (µg.m3) GFSIFS Simulation period : June/July/August 2005 Number of stations : ~ 200 stations (urban+rural+peri-urban) Bias 32.3 Cor 0.86 0.86 Rms 17.317.1 Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  8. Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (2/6) bias correlation rms Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  9. Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (3/6) Example of ozone surface peaks time-series : Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  10. Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (4/6) [Number of simulated ozone peaks (> 180 µg.m-3) / number of observated peaks ] x 100 GFS meteorological forcing IFS meteorological forcing ● blacks circles shows stations without peaks values above 180 µg.m-3 Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  11. Impact of ECMWF meteorological forcing (5/6) Number of « well » forecasted peaks : correct alert GFS meteorological forcing IFS meteorological forcing Number of forecasted but not observed peaks : False alert GFS meteorological forcing IFS meteorological forcing Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  12. Test ECMWF meteorological forcing for summer 2005 (6/6) Exploratory analysis of differences between both meteorological forcings  example of monthly mean differences maps (July 2005) Wind module (m/s) 2m Temperature (°C) [varIFS-varGFS] Friction velocity (u*; cm/s) Relative humidity (%) Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  13. Devellopment of a new experimental forecast system based at ECMWF What’s new ? New parallel version of CHIMERE is used The whole system is running remotely on ECMWF’s calculator (HPCD) IFS (ECMWF) (0.5°x 0.5°) CHIMERE-GEMS (parallel version) Timing (D-1) 6h30 pm (UT) (D-1) 9 pm (UT) (D-1) 9h45 pm (UT) 120 h IFS forecast available Beginning of the CHIMERE run on hpcd Chemical forecasts are Available (Day + 3) Skill scores of the forecasts for daily peaks values (µg.m3) GFSIFS Simulation period : July/August 2006 Number of stations : ~ 200 stations (urban+rural+peri-urban) Bias -1.1-7.0 Cor 0.89 0.89 Rms 17.118.4 Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  14. Experimental forecast for summer 2006 at ECMWF Simulated surface ozone peaks for the 2006/07/26 NCEP/MM5/CHIMERE ECMWF/CHIMERE-GEMS Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

  15. Future works • Identifying main differences for the 2 differents meteorological forcings • increasing horizontal resolution of the model (parallel version) • Tests with the new TNO emission cadaster • Sensivity tests to chemical boundary conditions forcings : differences between monthly global climatology and global chemical forecasts •  currently in test with LMDZ-INCA chemical forecasts • + Implementation of the new model version : (spring 2007 ???) • enhanced aerosol modules • deep convection  free-tropospheric version • coupling with chimere-dust version  better dust forcing … Gloream workshop, Paris 2006

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