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Near-Earth objects – a threat for Earth? Or: NEOs for engineers and physicists

Near-Earth objects – a threat for Earth? Or: NEOs for engineers and physicists Lecture 9 – Politics Prof. Dr. E. Igenbergs (LRT) Dr. D. Koschny (ESA). Image credit: ESA. News.

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Near-Earth objects – a threat for Earth? Or: NEOs for engineers and physicists

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  1. Near-Earth objects – a threat for Earth? Or: NEOs for engineers and physicists Lecture 9 – Politics Prof. Dr. E. Igenbergs (LRT) Dr. D. Koschny (ESA) Image credit: ESA

  2. News Web site of the European Commission-funded project NEOShield is online since 21 Jun 2012 – NEOShield will study strategies on asteroid deflection, budget ca. 5 Mio Euro. Check out http://www.neoshield.net

  3. More news http://www.neoshield.net/en/news-and-events/news/close-approach-of-large-asteroid-today.htm Asteroid 308242 (2005 GO21) – size 1.4 km! - flew within 17 lunar distance of Earth yesterday

  4. Context 4

  5. Outline • The United Nations (UN) and the NEO threat – history of the Action Team 14 (AT 14) • How do the UN work • Intermezzo – the IAU and risk metrics • The decision process within ESA • Proposed decision process within AT 14

  6. History of the Action Team #14 • In 1999, the NEO issue came to the attention of the UN during the Unispace III conference (3rd UN conference on the exploration and peaceful uses of outer space) • Resulted in 40 ‘recommendations’ • If a country offered to take the lead in following up any of the recommendations, an ‘Action Team’ would be installed

  7. Unispace 3 conference 1999 as the starting point of UN’s interest • See: A/Conf. 184/6 • The Space Millennium: Vienna Declaration on Space and Human Development, Resolution 1 , para (1) (c) • (i) To improve the scientific knowledge of near and outer space by promoting cooperative activities in such areas as astronomy, space biology and medicine, space physics, the study of near- Earth objects and planetary exploration; • (iii) To improve the international coordination of activities related to near-Earth objects, harmonizing the efforts directed at identification, follow-up observations and orbit prediction, while at the same time giving consideration to developing a common strategy that would include future activities related to near-Earth objects.

  8. In 2001, the ‘Action Team on NEOs, also known as Action Team 14’ was established by COPUOS. Two phases: • Assessment phase • Implementation phase • … “develop draft recommendations for the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee on the international response to the NEO threat []. As endorsed by the Subcommittee, the recommendations pass on for consideration by COPUOS. If COPUOS endorses the recommendations, they move on to the UN General Assembly.“ • AT-14 milestone: 2008 report by the Association of Space Explorers “Asteroid Threats: A call for Global Response” • The final AT-14 report is due in February 2013 to the STSC; will go to COPUOS in June 2013

  9. Interim reports can be found athttp://www.oosa.unvienna.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/stsc/2012/docs.html

  10. Status – proposed structure United NationsSecurity Council • IAWN: observations, orbit prediction, impact effects modelling, communication • SMPAG: assess space missions for impact mitigation • MAOG: political body MAOGMission Authorisation and Oversight Group From the ASE report “Asteroid Threats:A call for global response” SMPAGSpace Mission Planning and Advisory Group IAWNInformation, Analysis, and Warning Network Disaster management community

  11. The United Nations General Assembly Security Council • COPUOS = Committee for Peaceful Use of Outer Space • STSC = Scientific and Technical Subcommittee • NEO WG = NEO Working Group COPUOS Legal SC STSC NEO WG Action Team 14

  12. Intermezzo – the IAU IAU = International Astronomical Union Requires that if a data centre computes an impact risk larger than 1 % of the background risk, the results have to be validated with another data centre

  13. Intermezzo – metrics for impact probabilities IP R ~ pbDT • IP = ImpactProbability • E = Energyreleasedbytheimpact in Mt • DT = Time spanuntiltheimpact in years The Palermo scale PS = log10 R • NOTE 1: pb = backgroundriskpb= 0.03 E-4/5 • Note 2: PS = -2 means that the particular impact risk is 1% of the background impact risk until the time of impact. • NOTE 3: 1 kt TNT = 4.184 * 1012 J

  14. 2011 AG5 d = 130 – 290 m => assume 200 m, v = 15 km/s DT = 28 years With r = 2000 kg/m3: m = 8 109 kg Kinetic energy E = 9 1017 J or 225 Mt TNT pb = 3.9 10-4 per year PS = -0.74 – on NEODyS -1.06 (different diameter assumed?)

  15. How are decisions taken in ESA’s SSA programme?

  16. Key players and responsibilities - I ProgrammeBoard ESACore Team DirectorGeneral Directorof SRE Directorof HSO UserGroup directs directs ESATechnical Staff directs supports advises report HSO = Directorate of Human Spaceflight and Operations SRE = Directorate of Science and Robotic Exploration Contractors(Industry, institutes)

  17. Key players and responsibilities - II • User group • Consists of experts, stake holders, and user representatives (space agencies, political decision makers, …) • Advises both Core Team and Programme Board on requirements, architecture, implementation • Programme Board • Consists of Delegates to ESA of the subscribed countries (political people) • Decides on requirements, architecture, implementation (normally based on documentation prepared by Core Team) • Director General • Can override decisions by Programme Board • Decides on locations based on recommendations by the Programme Board

  18. Key players and responsibilities - III • ESA Core Team • Consists of the Programme Manager, three Segment Managers, some other people dedicated 100 % to SSA • Acts as ‘executive’ – manage the implementation of the programme following the directives from the Programme Board • Responsible for technical decisions • Prepare and follow design and implementation as done by industry/institutes (Statement of Work, progress meetings…) • Contractors • Consist of industry or institutes • Actually perform the work as defined by Core Team • Report to Core Team

  19. So what does the Action Team 14 recommend?

  20. Status – proposed structure United NationsSecurity Council • IAWN: observations, orbit prediction, impact effects modelling, communication • SMPAG: assess space missions for impact mitigation • MAOG: political body MAOGMission Authorisation and Oversight Group From the ASE report “Asteroid Threats:A call for global response” SMPAGSpace Mission Planning and Advisory Group IAWNInformation, Analysis, and Warning Network Disaster management community

  21. Status - IAWN • Information, Analysis and Warning Network (IAWN) • Workshop in Mexico City, January 2010 • Space-related elements of IAWN essentially exist: observing teams, modellers, risk analysts • In fall 2012: Formation of an IAWN Steering Group, hosted by NASA Optical Ground Station – ESA’s 1-m telescope used ~4 nights per month for asteroids Screenshot of NEODyS, the European system to predict possible impacts

  22. Status - SMPAG SMPAG workshop #01, Oct 2010, ESOC • Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) • 1st: Hosted by ESA in Darmstadt, Oct 2010 • 2nd: Hosted by NASA in Pasadena, Aug 2011 • Draft Terms of Reference were written • Discussed by a first ’SMPAG preparation meeting’ with space agencies in the margins of COPUOS STSC meeting, Feb 2012 + second meeting on 08 Jun 2012 • Third meeting possibly in Oct 2012

  23. Status - MAOG • MAOG • Has been discussed in latest AT 14 meetings, 11/12 Jun 2012 • Proposed to be COPUOS • IAWN and SMPAG will report to COPUOS via statements of the national Delegates

  24. Status – interaction with disaster management organisations • Still open • Interaction chain within countries needs to be defined

  25. Summary Public For a system model, the following points need to be taken into account in addition to any technical points: • Organizational structure as proposed by the Action Team 14 • Decision process within the agencies • Decision process within the UN

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