1 / 19

能源与环境政策研究中心

能源与环境政策研究中心. C enter for E nergy & E nvironmental P olicy R esearch. Exploring energy consumption and demand in China. Ying Fan Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP) Institute of Policy and Management (IPM) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) 3-7 July, 2011, Serbia.

akio
Download Presentation

能源与环境政策研究中心

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. 能源与环境政策研究中心 Centerfor Energy & Environmental Policy Research Exploring energy consumption and demand in China Ying Fan Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEP) Institute of Policy and Management (IPM) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) 3-7 July, 2011, Serbia

  2. Content • Introduction • Energy consumption • Energy demand and policy

  3. Economic growth and energy consumption China's rapid economic growth was accompanied with quick increase of energy consumption in 1978-2010, Annual economic growth rate in average is more than 9% Primary energy consumption growth rate is 5.6% Energy production growth rate is 5.0% In 2010, China has consumed 3.25 BTce energy, in which coal, oil, gas, and renewable have accounted 70.45%, 17.62%, 4.03%, and 7.21%, respectively.

  4. Energy consumption by industrial sector 3.25 BTce in 2010; 3.06 BTce, in 2009

  5. Gap between energy supply and demand • Energy demand is far larger than domestic energy production • The energy self-sufficiency has dropped rapidly. • In the future, the gap will be larger

  6. High dependence on imported oil China became a net oil importer since 1993, a net crude oil importer since 1996. In 2010, China imported 239 million tons of crude oil, the oil import dependence is 53.7%.

  7. Coal dominates China’s energy consumption • There is relatively rich coal resource endowment: In 2009, the coal reserve-production ratio is 38, and oil and gas are 11 and 29 • this energy endowment resulted in a coal-dominated energy mix. The proportion of coal in total energy consumption has been nearly 70%. • The use of plenty of coal causes: • Potential safety problems in coal production (mining) • Severe environmental pollution, ecological destruction and greenhouse gas emissions Coal is mainly used to produce electricity.In 2007, China produced 3.28 trillion kilowatts hours of electricity of which 82.98% was produced by thermal power Power generation from 1990-2007

  8. energy efficiency • Energy efficiency is lower than in developed countries in general • Energy consumption of major industrial products is 40% higher than that in developed countries

  9. Serious environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions CO2 emissions from fossil energy use in China • In 2008 • SO2: 23.21 million tons • NOX: 20 million tons • CO2: 6508.2 million tons

  10. How various factors impact energy intensity decrease 1. During 1987 and 2007, China’s energy intensity continued to decline by 60%, except an increase of 6.5% from 2002 to 2005. 2. The decrease in energy intensity mainly was contributed by the change of energy efficiency and energy mix. 3.Production technology efficiency is relatively backward, contributed to increase energy intensity (except 1987-1992). 4. The change of industrial structure contributed backward, energy-intensive industries (e.g., iron and steel, building materials, chemical products) developed rapidly with the expansion of infrastructure. 5. Final demand structure tended to increase demand for energy-intensive product resulting in increasing energy intensity.

  11. The Eleventh five year plan (2006-2010) • The plan states that the overall energy demand should be constrained and the share of new energy and renewable energy should be increased • It is the first time to include an input indicator as a constraint – requiring that energy use per unit of GDP is cut by 20% (4.4% cut per year) • CO2 reduction 360 million ton • The plan sets forward specific requirements for energy conservation and applicable technologies development

  12. Energy demand projection at BAU scenario BAU assumptions: • Growth of GDP : 8%, 2005–2010; 6%, 2010–2015; 5%, 2015-2020 • Energy mix, industrial structure and technology improvements will evolve in the same way as the average over the last two decades, forecasts for the energy input mix, real energy input coefficient, input mix and real technology coefficient assume the average change for five periods (1987–2007) • Final demand by category

  13. Alternative scenario • If energy conservation and low carbon policies are enhanced, an alternative scenario may come out • Energy mix, industry structure and technical improvements are optimized for development over the next 10 years • Energy intensity will decrease by 43.1% based on the 2005 level, corresponding to a total energy demand of 3.99 billion tce in 2020, which is much lower than that in the BAU scenario.

  14. CO2 emissions Carbon intensity will be reduced by 40% under the BAU scenario based on the 2005 level. Carbon intensity will be reduced by more than 45% under the alternative scenario based on the 2005 level. Including CO2 emissions from energy combustion and cement production Sources: arise from combustion of fossil fuel and cement production(infrastructure demand)

  15. The Twelfth five year plan (2011-2015) • Non-fossil fuel to account for 11.4% of primary energy consumption • Water consumption per unit of value-added industrial output to be cut by 30 percent • Energy consumption per unit of GDP to be cut by 16% • Carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP to be cut by 17% • Forest coverage rate to rise to 21.66 percent and forest stock to increase by 600 million cubic meters

  16. Climate change policy of China

  17. Conclusions China’s energy mix is dominated by energy endowment, coal is the major primary energy Energy demand increase is closely linked with energy mix, industry structure and technology improvement Under the BAU scenario, energy demand will reach at 4.7 Btce in 2020, carbon intensity will be reduced by 40% based on the 2005 level. There is huge potential for reducing energy demand, since the growth mode could be better than that during 1987–2007. If stricter policies are adopted, energy demand can be controlled below than 4.0 Btce, carbon intensity reductions could even exceed 45%.

  18. Policy implication • Increase the share of low-carbon industry by adjusting industry and export structures; • Promoting the development of renewable and new energy sources to achieve the non-fossil energy target of >15% of total energy consumption; • Advocate energy conservation based on technical improvements with greater R&D input; • Changing the behavior of residents and industry towards energy conservation.

  19. 能源与环境政策研究中心 Centerfor Energy & Environmental Policy Research Thanks ! Contact: ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ying Fan Professor and director Center for Energy and Environmental Policy (CEEP) Institute of Policy and Management (IPM) Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Tel: +86 10 62542627(O) Email: yfan@casipm.ac.cn web: http://www.ceep.cas.cn/en/ http://www.ceep.cas.cn/en/view.php?id=32 19

More Related